Member Info for HeadInTheSand

Slating Crocqman (who I've always found to be a voice of reason and entirely objective, albeit from a more positive standpoint than myself) is bizarre, to say the least.

Should we not be due an RNS on Aleph's (and chums') acquisition of the second chunk of 273 million shares in exchange for the second £3 million?

Approval to enable the second half of this pre-advised staggered placing was given at the (E)GM a week ago - I'd have expected to see something announced by now ?

The SFB data is reported by the NSTA (the OGA as was) in mmscf per day.

To convert mmscf to therms, see https://www.convert-me.com/en/convert/energy/therm/therm-to-mscfgas.html

(And don't forget to take into account that George's quoted hoped-for figures are therms per MONTH, so adjust for that too.)

Richard McV you are welcome.

Noel, I al;ready know that you are also well-versed i the numbers, so I'd be interested to hear about any errors (sure, that's possible) on my side.

BV, 50 days from July 21st estimated SPUD date for the sidetrack takes one to the 9th of September. I think it is reasonable to assume the sidetrack kicking in - presuming it is successful - from Oct 1st.

TYPO near the end... "and a huge and literally game-changing 52+ million therms would be available to sell at open market pricing."

...(or who are trying to mislead others), it's really very simple.

ANGS has hedged a total of 52.125 million therms over the next three years, starting from July 1st. Forget percentages for the moment - hedges are all about fixed quantities of any given commodities being sold at fixed pricing.

The quantities hedged per month vary from 1.125 million therms up to 1.75 million therms, with the average being 1.42 million therms per month over the entire three years.

The fixed pricing per month varies from 35.25p per therm to 52.05p per therm. The average is 43.71p per therm over all 36 months.

So, if ANGS produces exactly 52.125 million therms over the next three years, we already know exactly what its sales revenue will be (£22.347 million).

If it produces more than that over the next three years, any excess production can be sold at prevailing market prices (which are considerably higher than the hedged pricing). Great news.

If it produces less than that, then it has to effectively "buy" any shortfall at prevailing market pricing, but sell it at the much lower fixed hedge pricing. Ouch.

Now for percentages. ANGS has helpfully told us that the two existing wells should produce at 1.5 million therms a month from the get-go. That get-go should be July 1st. 1.5 million x 36 months = 54 million therms. Happy days! That's (just) more than the overall quantity hedged - in this case, 96.5% of all field production would be hedged, with 3.5% (or 1.875 million therms) available to sell at much higher prevailing market prices..

But let's suppose that the sidetrack is successful, kicks in from Oct 1st and doubles production from that point. That would add another 49.5 million therms to total field production over the three years, giving an amount of 103.5 million therms. MASSIVELY happy days... ANGS sells the volumes hedged at the cheap fixed pricing, but then has a shedload more gas to sell at much much higher open market pricing - in this case, only 49.4% of all field production would be hedged and a huge and literally game-changing 2+ million therms would be available to sell at open market pricing.

Apologies to all that know this already - but it's patently clear from BB comments that some just don't get it and others are being deliberately misleading about it.

You've undercalled that, Tony.

Nearer £16 million Year One revenue post hedge settlement at today's future gas pricing, if 1.8 million monthy therms are produced.

I disagree. Although (obviously) getting to full production - after so many months of missed schedules - is crucial, my belief is that the market has largely priced this in. It is expecting George to get to full production in July and to deliver on his "1.5 million monthly therms" assurance. Yes, there may be a small sentiment-based spike when this happens.

What would significantly move the SP up is if the production levels from the two existing wells turn out to be meaningfully greater than 1.5 million monthly therms.

And what would cause a dramatic re-rate would be news that the as yet to be attempted sidetrack has been successful and has brought the field to its maximum 3 million therms per month output capacity. That one would be the real game-changer that would take the SP into multi-bag territory.

James2, a couple of things.

Maximum capacity of 10 mmscfd (= 3 million therms a month) is as you'll know entirely successful sidetrack dependent.

There are about to be 2.55 billion shares in issue, following the now-approved second half of the Aleph placement, so a 5p share price would give an MCap of c. £127 million. Having said that...

IMV 4 to 5p on a successful production-doubling sidetrack would be justifiable, but I do agree that the company should be worth more than that, once it's cleared through the majority of its hedge obligations.

PS I've made 40% less posts than you over the last thirty days and on exactly the same number of stocks...

As I've said BV, it's only the validity of any posted content that should be important.

Those who have no answer to valid content have to go straight for the oh so boring and oh so irrelevant "playing the man, not the ball" tactic.

Answered multiple times before, Superman, so I'm not going to bother doing so again. Check my post history if you're honestly that interested.

I'll say again though that surely the only important thing about any post is the validity of its content. If the content's valid and factually evidenced, then the person posting it or their motives for doing so are actually entirely irrelevant.

BV as you should know by now , a) I am not trying to bring ANGS down, but instead giving an at least equally justifiable and factually evidenced counter-view to the cheerleaders' endless paintings of fairyland, and b) yes if George does pull this off, I absolutely will be genuinely delighted for and congratulating all genuine long-term holders.

The cheerleaders can raise all the smokescreens they like, but the cold hard and very simple maths shows that:-

Without a sidetrack and producing 1.5 million therms throughout, ANGS gets c. £23.5 million of gross revenue post hedge-settlement over the next three years. That's not good, because it already owes over £20 million on the field to be paid within the next three years, leaving not much at all to cover field opex.

However, with a successful sidetrack doubling production to 3 million therms from say Oct 1st, that adds an astronomical extra c. £100 million of gross revenue to ANGS over the same three year period.

The delta is literally that massive - and that's why it's all about the sidetrack.

I have taken it as read that the company will produce enough gas to cover the hedge without a sidetrack.

They've said they'll produce 1.5 million therms a month, so that'd be 54 million therms over three years. They've only hedged 52.125 million therms over the same period - so if their production forecasts are correct, it's self-evident that the hedge will be covered by the two producing wells. Of course, the proof of the pudding is in the eating and all that, butI don't see anyone disputing that.

The issue raised is actually about the gross revenue that ANGS would get over that three year period, should it not manage to drill a successful sidetrack.

The only noteworthy thing about the CLON car crash as far as this BB is concerned is that SV was very recently doing his/her (utterly futile) level best to ramp the living bejaysus out of that toxic stock. Hopefully nobody was mug enough to listen, given what occurred.

Taverham as you clearly understand (but as others don't - or do their best to hide), a rising gas price is a two-edged sword for ANGS.

Utterly brilliant and hugely financially rewarding if they produce more than the quantities hedged... but extremely painful seriously and financially damaging if they produce less than the quantities hedged.

But those rising gas prices are just fab for Mercuria, utterly irrelevant of how much gas ANGS manages to produce.

SV is just one of the latest crop of magically appearing and invariably uber-positive IDs - it's transparent. And yes, I had noticed her only other LSE BB activity, which was her frantic attempts (utterly unsuccessfully) to ramp the car crash that is CLON.

RT003 utterly avoiding a very basic question dealing with factual realities. No surprise there then.

RT003, how much revenue does ANGS get over the next three years without a sidetrack? And with one?

What are you scared of? How come you can't (or won't) answer?

OK RT003...

I've laid out the gross revenues due to ANGS over the next three years if they only produce 1.5 million therms a month. Those would total £23.8 million over the next three years, using today's latest ICE gas futures pricing.

For the sake of balance, if ANGS starts producing 3 million therms a month from Oct 1st this year, those gross revenues rise astronomically and would total £119.6 million over the same three year period, again using today's latest ICE gas futures pricing.

Feel free to let everyone know what your three year gross revenues estimate is regarding the two above scenarios.

Or perhaps you'll just continue with the mindless insults, because you can't argue with basic maths...