Member Info for HeadInTheSand

The July spot price for gas right now is 166p per therm.

The amount of gas hedged by ANGS in July is 1.235 million therms.

The fixed price for the July hedged volumes is 41.4p per therm.

Therefore Mercuria (the party on the other side of the hedge) is contractually owed 1,125,000 x (166-41.4) = just over £1.4 million by ANGS within the month of July - completely and utterly regardless of whether loads of gas or no gas at all gets produced and sold by ANGS within July.

ANGS had better get producing - we're now down to the long-expected sharp end.

Sure.

https://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Angus-Energy-Saltfleetby-Reserves-Valuation-Report.pdf

The table on page 49 of that PDF shows the fixed volumes of gas hedged for each month of the three year hedge and the fixed monthly pricing for each of those monthly volumes.

Tygra's calculation only works if ANGS consistently produces 3 million therms a month (max field capacity as provisioned) with literally none of that production volume being hedged and the average monthly selling price being 233p per therm throughout.

Looks a just tad over-optimistic?

Tygra, I really don't know where you get your "£7 million per calendar month" from?

With the hedge in place (average 1.5 million therms a month at an average hedged price of 43.7p per therm) and presuming a sales price of say 200p for any unhedged quantities produced, ANGS would need to produce around 4.6 million therms a month to generate £7 million of monthly revenue for itself, while the hedge is in place over the next three years.

And that's since that's 50% more than George's very best case predictions, it wouldn't seem too likely, no?.

BV as I only sold my holding under a year ago, you're claiming that I was "deramping" while being a holder???

As ever, perhaps you need to foster a better acquaintance with actual facts, rather than making things up to fit your desired narrative.

SOU? You mean the only outfit prepared to make a bid for ANGS (all confetti equating to 1.5p of SOU paper at the time) during ANGS's formal sales process? That SOU? I agree, they're a car crash.

Jamdo, you would be right...

..except you've utterly ignored this from Angus's own website, as updated on June 1st.

Shareholdings in Angus Energy of greater than 3% are as follows:
Name Percentage of Enlarged Share Capital
Forum Energy Services Limited 23.91%
Aleph Fin C Limited 7.19%
Know Properties 4.2%

Now we all knew about Knowe - and a TR-1 was issued on May 30th (see RNS) with regard to Forum... but nothing on Aleph.

Forget the 2nd half of the placing for a moment...

What makes no sense at all is Aleph already holding a notifiable percentage of ANGS shares in issue (according to the ANGS website that was updated 3 weeks ago) and yet there's still been no TR-1 issued relating to that alleged holding.

How can those two easily verifiable facts possibly be squared away with each other? What should be believed - the ANGS website? Or the lack of a TR-1? How many shares does Aleph actually currently hold?

And is Aleph actually going to take up the 2nd half of the placing? Why hasn't there been any announcement of it having done so already? Approval was given over a week ago...

If there has been a leak, presumably that old boy with his soapy squirt-bottle who's checking all the welds as shown in recent ANGS tweets will be straight on it.

Why has there been no TR-1 relating to Aleph's recent acquisition of 7.19% of the total shares in issue? That's a legally notifiable requirement.

And why has there been no announcement of the second half of the £6 million placing (again involving Aleph) going through, even though approval - the only thing needed to enable this - was granted at the (E)GM over a week ago?

Both of these things are becoming more curious by the day.

As has been mentioned before, the MCap reported by LSE is incorrect.

There are currently 2,283 million shares in issue (as per the ANGS RNS of 24th May (despite there oddly being no accompanying TR-1 filed on behalf of Aleph).

2,283 million x 1.15p gives a market cap of around £26 million as of right now.

After the (E)GM, a further 273 million shares should be being placed with Aleph again, taking the total shares in issue up to 2,556 million - but again somewhat oddly, there's been no subsequent announcement on that yet.

OK let's forget the fact that there's been no announcement (yet) on Aleph and associates taking the 2nd lot of 273 million shares (approved by shareholders 8 days ago) in exchange for another £3 million.

The ANGS website was updated on June 1st showing Aleph as already holding 7.19% of the company's 2,283 million shares in issue at that point (presumably as a result of the first half of the £6 million placing)...

...but where's the TR-1 relating to this acquisition of a major holding by Aleph? It's obligatory to announce this?

I'm not disputing any facts, BV. In fact it's good to see you actually using some for once, albeit entirely irrelevant ones.

Now, I'd suggest it'd be a whole lot more useful if you addressed the points raised - but sadly and as usual, you either won't or far more likely, can't.

Way to address the points raised BV... not.

As always, when one has no answer, resort immediately to childish insult. How boringly trite and yet how typical.

OfficeManager, you may consider a George-given hope or estimate to be a hard, concrete and thus inevitably factual answer.

I - and others with even a passing awareness of ANGS's track record on accuracy of its issued estimates - will not have the same level of blind confidence and would prefer instead to rely on hard evidence, rather than hopes, projections, assurances and guesses. After all, as has been proven countless times, words are cheap...

ST, I personally would list those (and in increasing order of importance) as:-

1. When will full production start? (NB not first gas... full production).
2. What consistent monthly volume will that full production deliver? (As stated, George hopes for 1.5 million therms a month).
3a. When will the sidetrack attempt start? (George has stated he hopes for July 21st).
3b. How long will that attempt take? (George has "conservatively " estimated 50 days).
3c. Can the sidetrack attempt be made without having to suspend full production? (There's still been no clear and unequivocal answer given on this).
4. What level of effect on monthly production will the sidetrack - if successful - deliver? (George has stated he hopes that it will take the field up to its maximum operating capacity of 3 million therms per month).

That's pretty much it in my book - and unsurprisingly all the above current "unknowns" fall into the all-important "How much gas and by when?" category.

SeekingTruth, that's the second of the current four great unknowns.

George has certainly stated that he hopes that a pressure build-up over the last 4 and a 1/2 years of inactivity will have occurred, meaning that the existing production wells will consistently produce his equally hoped-for 1.5 million therms a month of consistent production...

Unfortunately George has stated many other things in the past that turned out at best to be wildly over-optimistic and not in any way reflecting the cold, hard, actual reality of things as it transpired.

So probably best to wait and see (and it'll take three months after full production start, before we get independently audited figures from the NSTA).

The major investors "have trust in the company"...

Except those major investors are either:-

The lenders (Mercuria and Aleph) who have first charge on the asset and thus no risk)
or
The party on the other side of the hedge (Mercuria again), who have a guaranteed 3 year payout, regardless of how much or how little gas is produced
or
The party (Forum Energy Services Ltd) which just decided it'd be better off selling its share in Saltfleetby...

...I'm not really sure how much trust any of those "major investors" can be said to have shown? Where's the risk? In each case all major investing parties seem to have covered themselves rather neatly.

SB, surely first gas simply must be priced in? I mean, this is a gas field that has produced, so there's literally no way that the market or anybody else thinks it might be a duster.

As to re-rate? It would make no sense for that to occur on first gas that is fully expected, as per above (though there might be a purely emotive and relief-caused mini-spike, I suppose).

News on consistent production over and above 1.5 million therms a month - now that would have an effect. And news of a successful sidetrack that doubles that rate of production would send the SP soaring, for sure.

But first gas? Not so much, IMV.

They have a not insignificant installation to test with kilometres of pipework, so I am not sure seeing what particular part or section is currently being tested is any indication of anything at all.