Member Info for HeadInTheSand

It is impossible to argue with either Tygra's or Crocqman's posts.

ANGS continues to teeter on the edge of releasing misleading information via RNS - and only avoids that by careful use of "expects to". "is confident in", "is targeting", "has advised that" and so on. Still, at best, the company and its executive dream team continues to be wildly and unrealistically over-optimistic in its issued public statements.

Someone yesterday very cogently mentioned the desirability and importance of correctly and carefully managing expectations. ANGS eternally does the exact opposite, hence - come what may - it has utterly laid waste to its credibility and the SP has suffered as a direct consequence.

"The above information was accurate as at 18 July 2022 and is based on TR1 notifications received by the Company".

That's odd? Where are the RNSes detailing the more than one TR-1 notifications that must have been received from Aleph?

Trutti, asher is just another short-term trader recently appearing here and desperately trying to play pass the parcel bomb.

If Mercuria - the primary lender and the party on the other side of the hedge - ended up with the asset, it would be the easiest of sells for them. This is not about what the asset is worth in and of itself, but what the asset is worth to ANGS given all the liabilities it has already tied to it. Those are very different numbers.

Let's look at that tweet the. shall we? It says:-

To clarify the RNS today. Our guidance of 12 July that “anticipated production during Q3 comfortably exceeds the hedge amount as advised on 28 June 2022” remains unchanged.

Okay, so as ANGS specifically refers to the RNS of the 28th June, let's remind ourself of what that says. Here's the key phrase from that RNS:-

"The hedged volume for July to September inclusive is for 3.375 million therms. The expected output during that period from existing wells B2 and A4, ASSUMING A START DATE OF 1 JULY is approximately 5 million therms and comfortably exceeds the hedged amount."

(The CAPS are mine).

But hang on a second? They can't assume a start date for sales gas of July 1? They've just told us today that sales gas won't occur till July 25th at the very earliest (and it could be any time after that). So ANGS has told us today that it is going to miss out on at least 3 1/2 weeks of production in July....

There is no "comfortably exceed" left whatsoever. At 5 million therms a quarter/1.667 million therms a month (George's suddenly increased production forecast as per the above quoted 28th June RNS snippet, ANGS *may just* produce enough gas to meet the Q3 hedge, but only provided that A) it starts full production within July and B) George's convenient increased production forecast proves correct.

If the two existing wells produce at the previous George forecasted rate (1.5 million therms a month) that he'd been sticking to for ages, then even with a best case July 25th sales gas start, ANGS has already missed the Q3 hedge.

What's the opposite of ANGS? Transparency, accuracy or honesty?

Oh, and they also need to fund the sidetrack attempt, starting on Thursday, apparently (not).

Oh and make sure under the loan terms that they keep a positive bank balance amounting to one quarter's worth of capital plus interest repayments on that loan, so probably around £1.2 million.

BF, you could work it all out for yourself. The fixed monthly volumes and fixed monthly pricing re the 36 month hedge are all in the Oct 26th 2021 Valuation report (p 49 from memory) and https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/NF*0/futures-prices is a good place to see latest live gas futures pricing.

With those latest gas futures prices Mercuria is currently owed/guaranteed around £7.35 million for the entire Q3 hedge, so ANGS needs to produce enough gas to sell at that price to cover that, plus to cover whatever other costs it's either altready incurred or is set to incur (e.g. field commissioning costs, ongoing field opex, scheduled payments against the £6.25 million owed to Forum on the acquisition, capital plus interest repayments on the £12 million loan etc etc).

Jollifant, interesting shift of position? However, I agree - this is normal operating procedure for ANGS and has been for years.

The big clue on this delay was when George very recently and out of the blue upped his production forecast "magically" to 5 million therms a quarter (or 1.67 million therms a month), from the 1.5 million monthly therms he'd been mentioning for ages.

Two months production at 1.67 million monthly therms just about covers the three month Q3 hedge (3.375 million therms). It was therefore a sure sign when he did suddenly up his forecast (as per the disingenuously worded June 28th RNS) that ANGS would not be producing until the very end of July at best.

As mentioned, even at George's very recently increased production forecast, it's now pretty much impossible for ANGS to produce the volumes to meet the Q3 hedge.

Separately, it's all gone a bit quiet on the sidetrack all of a sudden? Spud date "targeted" for this Thursday, according to the latest RNS to mention this. Anyone holding their breath?

Just the usual ANGS can kick, hamsters...

Monday 25th at the very earliest.

Even at 1.66 million therms a month, they almost certainly aren't going to produce enough to fulfil the Q3 hedge then.

And George said "comfortably exceed...". How very AIM.

Paul Forrest's 546 million shares are tied up under the acquisition deal in swathes up to a year.

However, the other 91 million shares he got relating to the acquisition that he could sell immediately, he did sell immediately.

Why? Because 0.5% of the shares in issue have been traded? Riiiiiight.

Howey, the question is, was that typo caused by a problem with his keyboard or his moose? And by the way, when do you expect it to rain, dear?

(I'm here till Thursday, folks. Don't forget to tip your waitress and try the veal).

As with most things in life, climate change doesn't have one simple single cause. Yes, there is undoubtedly an anthropomorphic effect - but naturally occurring factors also apply (for those interested, google Milankovitch cycles).

I usually agree pretty much entirely with Crocqman, even though at the core, his position is diametrically opposed to mine.

The two things I disagree with him on in his latest post are:

1) that the so-called naysayers "massively outnumber" those of a more positive outlook. That is demonstrably not true.

2) the implication that anyone with a less positive outlook is some form of troll that either doesn't hold that opinion sincerely or that has some XR green agenda. That's also categorically not necessarily true.

What is true, however is that it's the company itself which, by continually revising its own estimates, breaking its own assurances and missing its own self-set deadlines, provides all the evidence necessary (and more) to fully justify any more negative opinion.

You can't get in trouble for any projections made during a one-to-one conversation. You could get in trouble (though with next to zero regulation on AIM, you're very unlikely to) for misleading info issued via RNS. Hence the very careful use of terms such as "is confident in", "is targeting", "expects" etc etc.

Leaving that to one side, if there is only one gas compressor on site currently, then according to ANGS itself, maximum production is indeed limited to 5 mmscfd (=1.59 million therms a month).

That would mean that, if ANGS is to produce the volume hedged in Q3, it would need 66 days of full production running at that rate. So it would have to be at that full production from July 27th (in just 9 days' time).

On this subject, the 28th June RNS stated this:-

"The hedged volume for July to September inclusive is for 3.375 million therms. The expected output during that period from existing wells B2 and A4, assuming a start date of 1 July is approximately 5 million therms and comfortably exceeds the hedged amount."

Well, as they didn't start on July 1st (and why even mention this date just 2 days beforehand? Without a doubt, George knew at that that point that a July 1st start date for full production was impossible - typical ANGS disingenuousness), that "comfortable excess" very clearly no longer exists.

ANGS really had better get a move on - even I find it incredible that we're well over halfway through July and the following literally crucial question STILL has had no answer:-

"How much gas and by when?"

...and the scarcely literate wording of the thread title says all you need to know about ScarletVixen, his/her level of smarts and his/her attention to detail.

BV, I am less than positive on ANGS for the sole reason that to date, quite literally every single piece of information released by Lucan and his fellow executive officers, whether in investor presentations, softball PR interviews, answers to investor questions and also via RNS has turned out to be wildly inaccurate and as such, hugely misleading.

Or to put it another way, just plain wrong. I'm sure I don't need to quote evidence because there's just so much of it. On that basis, your anger really ought to be directed at those who are continually supplying all the material that so easily and so obviously justifies a more cautious opinion, namely the BoD.