Member Info for HeadInTheSand

I think you'll find that the vast majority of those "millions of pounds a year of turover" are already contractually committed to go to Mercuria on the other side of the hedge. As of tight now, over the next 36 months, it's owed well in excess of £85 million by ANGS, completely regardless of how much or how little gas the latter may manage to produce. In fact Mercuria is already owed going on £1.7 million just for the first 22 days of July.

The market is clearly not setting any value by any ANGS prediction (hardly surprising).

Only news of full production actually having started and what consistent production levels actually are will make any difference. To date, still nobody knows how much gas and by when.

...except the RNS also states they need to finish commissioning the compressor. That's compressor singular.

So as per previous ANGS issued info, that limits production to a max of 5 mmscfd, or 1.6 ish million therms a month.

Phil Collins songs, eh? Let's have some more.
You can't hurry George
(Yet) Another day in Lincolnshire
I wish it would flow now
Land of dilution
I can't drill
One more week

Howey as I'm sure you realise, the negativity would disappear the moment George finally and for the first time ever delivers on the promises and assurances he's made, instead of continually kicking the "jam tomorrow... honest!" can further down the road.

The problem remains that all the real-world and actually verifiable evidence does not support a sunny view - and George doubles down on that by keeping issuing then promptly missing every self-set deadline. So at the moment, it's hopes versus facts.

How much gas and from when? We still have no clue.

That's even more owed to Mercuria then. Great news!

(for them).

I love that Asher has claimed to report me for "market abuse". Hysterical.

It cannot be market abuse to directly refer to clear company statements and point out that it has missed its projections yet again.

Cases in point. The sidetrack spud was targeted for yesterday according to a company RNS less than six weeks ago - and didn't happen. Similarly, George conveniently increased his "hoped-for " production rate a couple of weeks back to 1.67 million therms per month... the Q3 hedge totals 3.375 million therms... by Monday, there are two months and one week left in Q3... care to point out where any "comfortable excess" can come from?

No, market abuse would be something like confidently stating in late March that full production would start on June 1st and that all gas produced in June (being unhedged) would deliver revenues of up to £7.2 million for the company.

Now I wonder who kept projecting that?

The executive dream team's actions and statements really do make this share a trader's dream. They put out a tweet that does nothing but repeat info in the last RNS, the short-term ramptastic pass the parcel bomb crew does its best to whip up a groundless frenzy to pretend this is amazing new news to dupe the gullible... and then a load of sell orders are triggered by the decidedly modest minispike.

Rinse and repeat.

Tomorrow is indeed that day, according to George.

However, today's the day he told us less than 6 weeks ago (June 10th RNS) that the sidetrack was due to be spudded - and that's clearly not happened.

So I'd advise against holding one's breath...

@rick5-focus...

"what would you class as coming good? 5p? 10p?? more??"

It's a good question. I'm ignoring any poor souls who got trapped a few years back in the lobsterpot at 20p+ levels, courtesy of the Brockham fairytale, because it would not be realistic to expect any of them to get out without a thumping loss (as I am sure they well know).

I've got two answers.

One - if ANGS produces enough gas to exceed the hedge over its 36 month duration (but that would seem to require a successful sidetrack, according to all the information that George has stated).

or

Two and more simply - if the SP exceeds 2.5p. That would get more recent genuine long-term PIs (plus those courageous even longer-term souls who have been averaging down) out with a healthy profit.

Round of applause for Tygra's lengthy post above. A neatly detailed analysis of what is an all too typical AIM story.

The drowning out of more cautious/sceptical opinion - no matter how well evidenced - via schoolyard insults and ridiculous swampie/multiple ID myths being perpetrated is an absolute classic tactic across all AIM share discussion BBs. It's by far the number one go-to tactic of the short-term ra,"pass the parcel bomb" traders that infest shares like ANGS (and many others)... primarily because they cannot refute easily verifiable evidence.

Separately, if ANGS does come good, I will categorically be here to offer my congratulations to any genuine long-term holders.

Looking at the numerous predictions made by George and how they've literally all turned out to date, I don't think ANGS needs any help at all when it comes to over-exaggeration. It demonstrably does too far good a job itself.

Well, Mercuria on the other side of the hedge will be delighted.

I don't think the ANGS dictionary contains words like "precise" or any other ones suggesting "exact", "dead on accurate", "nailed on", "cast-iron", guaranteed" or similar.

Instead it's full of phrases such as "hopes for", "is confident that", "is expecting", "indicates", "is targeting" and so on.

I'll have to agree with Howey here.

I'm no fan of the utterly unjustified ramptastic "5p by Monday! Guaranteed multi-bagger! Only swampies disagree!" nonsense continually posted by the "pass the parcel bomb" short-term traders - and there's been far too much of that over the last few years - no doubt because ANGS hasn't been a share to hold, but it has been a trader's dream.

Having said that, I'm also no fan of equally utterly unjustified "There's no gas! The company's going skint next week!" nonsense from others at the polar opposite end.

There's plenty of evidence available to put forward a justified opinion or view and the facts (and the absence of those) are there for all to see - so it'd be a relief if people just did that. Better not hold one's breath, though.

IMO there's no way on God's green earth they're ready to spud the sidetrack in less than 48 hours' time. And nor should they be - all efforts should be on delivering revenue as much and as soon as possible.

George is actually answerable to shareholders both past and present during his tenure. As CEO, he is very definitely accountable for the accuracy/veracity of statements he's made over this time and especially ones communicated via RNS.

George has kicked the can down the road again. The hedge has started. There's no gas yet.

The question "How much gas and from when?" is all that needs answering - and increasingly urgently. What else is there to be said?

It's so obvious, it's barely worth saying, but of course there's plenty of gas in the ground at Saltfleetby.

But that's not the issue. The question remains:- will ANGS manage to get enough gas out in time to cover the sizeable commitments and obligations that it has already contractually bound to the field? (i.e. hedge commitments, scheduled £12 million loan plus interest repayments, scheduled payments totalling £6.25 million to Forum, paying back the Knowe £1.4 million CLN, maintaining a positive bank balance of c. £1.2 milliom at all times etc etc).

All of the above have to be completed in the next 36 months. And that's without considering remaining field commissioning costs, sidetrack attempt costs and general ongoing field opex costs.

Or basically.... "How much gas, George? And from when?"

Howey, that's a little broad brush, no?

Although I acknowledge that ANGS could make a very tidy sum out of Saltfleetby if and only if everything goes right (and have said so frequently), I am also aware of the downside possibilities, which so many others here pretend don't exist.

My ongoing issue with ANGS (which I am sure will also be shared by any genuine PIs) is the eternally broken assurances, the endlessly missed self-set deadlines and the continuous can kicking down the road. At the very least, ANGS would have to be accused of utterly naive over-optimism, because pretty much every single piece of information it has piut out via any comms vehicle (including via RNS) has turned out to be completely untrue/inaccurate. All of which means that ANGS has continually misinformed and misled existing PIs, potential PIs and the market in general. One would hope that it has done this unwittingly.

As to other posters? I don't usually comment on them, just their content. But there are some very obvious and deliberately disingenuous members of the ramp squad that have appeared here recently. You'll know who those are as well as I - they're the ones who cannot answer any point made,so simply resort to the usual playground insults.