Member Info for HeadInTheSand

As is typical of the short-term ramptastic squad, Lemonleaf does his best to spread wild speculation in the face of very easily verifiable facts, all of which run counter to his endless and ever more ludicrous squeaks of "jam tomorrow".

There's nothing wrong with short-term trading as an investment strategy, but lying your butt off in an attempt to pass the parcel bomb over to those less wary so you can exit with a marginal gain? That's more than a little contemptible.

More desperate BS from Lemonleaf, the week-old "new" ID.

The facts are:-

ANGS has still produced no gas to date.

ANGS has continually misled the market as to the schedule for full production.

Even if ANGS starts full production at its stated most optimistic production forecast (5 million therms a quarter), it will not meet the Q4 hedge (5.25 million therms) or the Q1 and Q2 hedges (each also 5.25 million therms, now plus the deferred quantity as well, so nearer 5.8 million therms). This means that ANGS is set to generate negative revenues in Q1 and Q2 next year with production from the two existing wells. Yes, without a successful sidetrack, in those two quarters ANGS will owe more than its entire revenue out of Saltfleetby just on making good the hedges.

And let's not forget scheduled loan repayments starting, scheduled acquisition payments to FESL starting and field opex, let alone having to fund the sidetrack attempt.

But boy does it desperately need a successful sidetrack kicking in in Q4, or it's in a very bleak place from a exhaustion of working capital point of view.

ANGS continues to be deliberately disingenuous.

"We have also been fortunate in that we have been able to roll a portion of the hedge into future periods that enjoy even higher forward prices – this is not possible to do without incurring large upfront costs when forward prices are lower than front month prices."

Let's translate that into normal English.

"Through our abject failure to produce even a whiff of gas to date, despite our repeated "comfortably exceed" assurances, we have been forced to beg Mercuria to agree that we can roll some of the Q3 hedged quantities into Q1 and Q2 next year.

Mercuria has agreed to this with glee, because we're now going to owe them £2 per therm more on any quantity we've had to shift out of Q3 into early next year. So, moving just the July 22 hedged volume of 1.125 million therms into early 2023 means that we'll contractually owe Mercuria roughly an extra £2.25 million in the first half of next year, compared to settling the July 22 hedge in July.

Of course, our being forced to do this further limits our revenue opportunity in 2023 and worse, increases the already higher Q1 and Q2 2023 hedged quantities to well beyond our most optimistic production forecast with no sidetrack.

This means more than ever that without a successful sidetrack, we are well and truly screwed.""

This has got beyond ridiculous.

Unless ANGS starts producing by Monday latest, it'll have to go back to Mercuria to allow it to shift a second month of the Q3 hedge into Q1/Q2 next year. And every time it does that, it reduces its revenue opportunity and/or increases its risk in Q1/Q2 2023 by about £2.5 million, looking at future gas price/committed hedge price differentials.

And this from the company that as late as July 18th was still retweeting the repeated RNSed assurances that Q3 production would "comfortably exceed" the Q3 hedge volumes.

You simply could not make it up.

Au contraire BV. I have consistently stated that if George can drill a successful and production-doubling sidetrack, I could easily see an SP of 5p being justified.

But if he can't drill a successful sidetrack, the drain on the company's working capital from the numerous financial obligations it has contractually committed to puts ANGS in a very bleak place indeed.

"Speaking of profits, Dec price 613p, Feb 610p folks!"

Even bigger profits for Mercuria then.

Yes, that latest gas pricing ensures that Mercuria will get an even bigger pay-out early next year, now that George has had to defer hedged volumes form the current quarter into Q1 and Q2 next year. And unless he starts producing by this weekend, he'll almost certainly need to beg to defer more into that higher-priced period.

That sidetrack really is going to be make or break...

A slightly odd strategy RT003, given that you have repeatedly assured that the SP will immediately reach a minimum of 5p as soon as production starts - and in fact you've more than once promised to disappear if it doesn't.

However I partly agree. There may well be a purely relief-caused but short-term minispike on news of production commencing, which if it occurs will see the recent infestation of ramptastic short-term traders disappear from this BB.

But news of production starting is almost entirely irrelevant compared to the far FAR more crucial news of how much gas is being consistently produced. That latter is an infinitely more significant factor to the SP.

"Lying for or against Angus depending on your share ownership!"

"Lying for ANGS"... Err hang on?

So when SV was a fully signed-up member of the heavenly choir and singing off the eternally positive hymn sheet, he/she was "lying", eh?

The ramptastic squad really hasn't got much of a grasp of logic, has it?

The hedge has not been reduced... part of it's been deferred due to ANGS's failure to produce anything at all so far.

And the hedged volumes that have been deferred have been moved into a period where the price of gas is even higher, meaning that the only party benefitting from that will be Mercuria. And it's naturally pushed the volumes required in Q1 and Q2 next year to fulfil the hedge to even higher levels - now well beyond any production forecast from the company that doesn't include a hoped-for sidetrack increase.

Sure, if ANGS produces more than the remaining Q3 hedged volumes, this would benefit the company in the short-term - but it's now the 15th of August and they've still produced nothing. If all they did was defer the July hedged commitment, at George's highest ever production forecast from the two existing wells, they've now got a week left to get to full production at that rate (1.67 million therms a month) in order to meet the remaining Q3 hedge - or ANGS will have to beg to defer even more (which will then make Q1 and Q2 even more costly for them in terms of lost opportunity and even more risky for them in terms of any failure to deliver).

How much gas and by when, George? And any news on the literally crucial sidetrack attempt?

Lemonleaf, whatever should I apologise for? Unlike your utterly ignorant self, I'm more than aware that ANGS acquired the remaining 49% of Saltfleetby from FESL for just over £14 million in cash and shares in late May this year.

Smokescreen as desperately as you like, but the cold hard fact remains that you know so little about ANGS that you stated they acquired 100% (yes, 100%) of Saltfleetby in "late 2019/early 2020".

In fact, let me post your comment verbatim once more, because it's too amusing to pass up on:-

Lemonleaf
Posts: 38
Price: 1.30
No Opinion
RE: Delay damages Sun 09:16

"You need to do some research as you are clearly clueless about Saltfleetby history. Here. Let me help you....

....Angus Energy acquired a 100% interest and operatorship in the field in late 2019/early 2020"

And you're telling another poster to "do some research"??? You really are the comedy gift that keeps on giving - but hardly surprising from an ID which got created less than a week ago.

Lemonleaf, anyone claiming (as you did for all to see) that "ANGS acquired a 100% interest and operatorship in the field in late 2019/early 2020" shows themselves up as knowing precisely nothing about the company.

Which comes as no surprise, given your oh so obvious agenda. Yoh and your ilk clearly don't bother doing even the barest modicum of research.

Better spin up another new ID... you've shot yourself in the foot with this one after barely a week.

Priceless.

You have to laugh at LemonLeaf, the latest (joined 11th August and and oh so vociferous) multi-ID incarnation of some short-term ramptastic shill.

This from his post of this morning says it all:-

"You need to do some research as you are clearly clueless about Saltfleetby history. Here. Let me help you....

....Angus Energy acquired a 100% interest and operatorship in the field in late 2019/early 2020"

Seriously? What on earth did ANGS buy off Forum Energy Services Ltd for £14 million just a couple of months back, then?

Truly and utterly clueless. Just another deliberately deceptive member of the know-nothing heavenly choir, who are as ever utterly unconcerned with facts..

Yanis, most recent and most optimistic estimate issued by George re production from the two existing wells remains 5 million therms a quarter.

The Q3 hedge has as you quite rightly say been reduced by deferring a chunk of it into Q1 and Q2 - but all that's done is increase Q1 and Q2 hedged volumes to well beyond the 5 million therms a quarter level each (and as you know, they started higher than that amount, just like Q4 this year also does).

So yes, it remains all about the sidetrack.

Apparently only one on site and configured for the moment, Yanis.

I suppose that they'll wait to see what happens with the sidetrack (whenever that attempt gets made) before bringing in another. Not much point having a second compressor otherwise.

Smokescreen and mudsling all you like, BV... the facts (to which you are as always violently allergic) remain.

Entirely agreed re the contemptible flip-flopping from SV.

Having said that, the undeniable truth remains that, despite everything that ANGS has promised, there's still no gas being produced as of yet.

I just noticed that the company repeated the big fat fib about anticipating that Q3 production would comfortably exceed the entire hedged Q3 volume as late as July 18th via Twitter... that's just nine days before they were forced to admit this was not in the least true. Not really trust-inspiring...

Apart from a potential relief-based spikelet, I can't see why any RNS saying "gas is finally flowing" will make any worthwhile difference? I mean, everybody (apart from flat earth loonies) knows there's gas to be had out of Saltfleetby.

No, the key pieces of info that would make a difference would be:-

1. sustainable production rate from the two existing wells.

and then at some unknown date in the future

2. news as to the sidetrack, i.e. has it been successful and if so, what effect on production rates has it had.

I think there's going to be a longer wait needed than just the next RNS.

...and one of the heavenly choir instantly resorts to playground insult and unprovable allegation. Says it all, really...

BV here's a short and sweet question for you... with regard to the July 12th RNS that the company istest has now shown to be a total falsehood, in your opinion was George:-

a) being ridiculously naive (yet again)?
or
b) deliberately telling porkies?

Tygra's (sadly) absolutely right with his view on Nomads. They don't (and quite possibly can't) check the veracity of company claims.

The example he cites from the July 12th RNS - "Anticipated production during Q3 comfortably exceeds the hedge amount as advised on 28 June 2022" - is a classic case in point. The only "get-out" in that repeated falsehood is the word "anticipated".

As we all know, just 17 days after the above RNS, George had to announce that actually the company couild not meet the Q3 hedged volumes, so had to beg Mercuria to allow them to shunt some of the Q3 hedge into Q1 and Q2 next year (a thing which will earn Mercuria a few million quid more, looking at future gas pricing).

But there's only one "either/or" take-out from the above repeated falsehood.

Either George genuinely did not know on July 12th that the two existing wells would not be in production within the next 17 days - if so, this shows him to persist in being jaw-droppingly naive and/or crushingly uninformed and/or serially incompetent...

Or he was stating something that he already knew would not be true.

Take your pick as to which is more likely - but frankly, neither possibility is particularly encouraging, to say the least.