Member Info for HeadInTheSand

BV don't be more idiotic than you have to be.

Hiya Howie. No, no calculator - who's got time for that? Fortunately the figures given on...

https://mip-prd-web.azurewebsites.net/DataItemExplorer

...are very easily downloadable as a csv file, so I let Excel do the work.

PS baits, I have of course read the two answers to IQs that ANGS has given. Here they are verbatim. Make of them what you will:-

As of Nov 1st:
"We have have previously announced that we have comfortably met the hedge to date – and would have announced if that had ceased to be the case."

As of Oct 2nd:
"We are already meeting and exceeding the current hedge profile and already paying down debt."

Baits, you do make me laugh.

All I did was total up the numbers you posted, nothing more, nothing less. So if there's **** in there about the flows, it's all yours, not mine.

I also didn't give any opinion on how many therms that might represent for October as a whole, nor did I even mention the hedge at all.

God knows why you've gone into one, then?

To save anyone the bother, the total cubic metres of gas produced by ANGS as per baits's listed figures below amounts to...

4.7639 million cubic metres

(For some reason, baits left off reported flows for the 1st of Oct, which I have included in the above total (it was 0.1537 on the 1st).

Feel free to turn that volumetric quantity into therms, using whatever conversion factors you like - there are plenty of reputable websites that will do this for you online, though you may need a two stage process, going first into mmscf and then into therms.

PeterA, it's a little complicated, but the only currently available figures are reported here:-

https://mip-prd-web.azurewebsites.net/DataItemExplorer

Enter Saltfleetby in the search box on the top right and hit "search"

Then check the "Reports" box on the left, choose your date range on the mid-right and click "View Data For Data Items"

The daily reported System Entry Volumes will be displayed (in million cubic metres). You'd need to do a bit of conversion (probably into mmscf, then into therms) to get a daily therm equivalent.

I got asked a question directly - well, two actually - and answered them both. No more, no less.

And if you can read, you'll find I allowed for the possibility of the most massive plus, namely the chance that current production rates might be doubled.

Baits, I believe that ANGS did exceed the hedge in Sept (1.125 million therms) and will also exceed the hedge in October (1.75 million therms) - although not by much.

And of course, if the combination of the sidetrack and 2nd compressor does double current production volumes, then ANGS should be debt-free by end Sep 2023 and yes, it would be generating considerable profits. If ANGS manages to have a spare 1.5 million therms or more to sell a month at current market pricing, that would generate enough revenue to allow it to pay off its various debts pretty quickly - back of a fag packet, it owes £1.4 million to Knowe on its CLN, about £14 million on the loan (capital plus interest) and £6.25 million in staged payments to Paul Forrest (though to be fair the 2nd and 3rd one of those obligations don't need to be fully settled until mid 2025).

However, if production levels stay where they are, then ANGS definitely won't be debt free by that point.

Or to put it another way, it's all about that sidetrack and how much gas and by when.

Dan, if Tony's made an honest mistake (which I am prepared to take at face value), then he's learnt something, which presumably is a good thing for him.

If he's knowingly posted a load of wildly exaggerated BS (which I very much doubt in his particular case, but plenty here do exactly that), then others have now got the correct facts, which may also be a helpful thing.

It's kind of hard to see how one can be gentle about simple maths, because it's either right or wrong. And in Tony's case for whatever reason, he is wrong by well over double.

Or Tony, let me put it another way that may be easier for you (personally I think you've muddled up therms and mcm, which would put a serious crimp i anyone's calculations. Anyhow...)

The absolute topside physical maximum number of monthly therms that the single compressor currently deployed on site can produce is about 2.1 million therms. And that only if running at overspec volumes - 1.9 million therms total monthly production would be much more likely as a best case.

Just a tad less then than the 4.25 million therms that you are so sure will be produced this month...

Tony, you'll agree that the Oct hedge is for 1.75 million therms, right?

You therefore must agree that to beat that therm number by 2.5 million therms would require 4.25 million therms to be produced this month, right?

You are aware that the reported ANGS production numbers are in mcm (million cubic metres), right? And that the highest reported figure so far has been about 0.175 mcm (or 175,000 cubic metres)?

Now... how many million cubic metres are required to be produced in October to equal the 4.25 million therms you claim will be produced?

Answer: about 11.7 million cubic metres in the month, or about 0.38 mcm per day, every day - yes, that's 380,000 cubic metres per day.

Now you show me a single ANGS reported production figure this month that gets anywhere near that number...

Baits on my calculator, 0.1759 million cubic metres is less than half of 0.391 million cubic metres...

"Gas production Over the hedge is 2.5 million therms over the month" Huh?????? That's complete and utter rubbish.

The October hedge is 1.75 million therms (as are the Nov and Dec hedged quantities). As it happens, the Jan-Jun hedged quantities are higher than that, following deferment due to first gas being late. Anyhow...

To beat current monthly hedged quantities by 2.5 million therms as has been claimed below, ANGS would ALREADY have to be producing at around 13.8 mmscf/day (or 0.391 mcm/day). And as the daily figures show, it's not even producing at around 50% of that rate.

Sure, the sidetrack if successful might get production up to say 12 mmscf/day tops... but to claim that is already happening is complete BS.

Re these share options, there's a clue in the name - the "options" part. There's no obligation for any director to take them up.

Yes, any director wishing to take them up would indeed have to purchase them at 2p per share - but in 99% of cases, an option is taken up by the recipient and sold at the same instant.

So, if the SP is 3p or more on some day over the next four years, those awarded options can then buy at 2p and simultaneously sell at that day's price in effectively the same transaction. So yes, it would be a guaranteed minimum 50% profit.

"The director in question has been locked into his investment for several years." says Ocelot... really? Not from a share selling point of view he hasn't.

ANGS RNS 24/05/22

"The Initial Consideration Shares and Additional Consideration Shares are to be issued on the day prior to Admission. The 91 million Initial Consideration Shares can be disposed of immediately but Forum has undertaken not to dispose of any Additional Consideration Shares for the first 3 months from the date of Acquisition and not to dispose of more than 25% of the 546,000,000 Additional Consideration Shares in each 3-month period thereafter."

So if Paul Forrest was so minded, he could sell all of those 546 million "locked-in" shares by end Nov 2023.

In addition, he is contractually due staged cash payments totalling £6.25 million over the 29 months between now and the end of March 2025 - but I don't see how those "lock him in" either. That's a contractual debt between the company and FESL (i.e. Paul Forrest), come what may.

PS I'd bet that the big sells yesterday were more from Paul Forrest. Under the terms of the 546 million shares "locked-in" shares he was given as the first part of the 49% acquisition, he's allowed to sell up to 136.5 million of those by the end of November.

Not saying he will, of course - but he does seem relatively keen on turning at least some of his holdings into cash on a drip-out "few million here, few million there" basis.

And if you really needed clear evidence of how cr*p LSE's buy/sell reporting really is... take a look at the ANGS directors' deals.

LSE is showing that Paul Forrest BOUGHT (!!!) 2 million shares on 7th Oct (announced on 19th Oct)... except that as the accompanying ANGS RNS of 19th Oct unequivocally states, he actually SOLD those 2 million shares.

LSE is in fact showing the complete opposite of the truth, which is more than a little ludicrous.

To put Forrest's sale of shares in perspective, as of the acquisition (June 1st), he got given 637 million shares as part of that deal.

Since that point, he's sold 100.25 million shares (or 15.7% of that holding), leaving him with 536.75 million.

To be fair, he sold 91 million immediately the deal was done - but the 9.25 million he's sold in the six weeks between the 23rd of August and the 7th of October is about double the total number of shares held by other current ANGS board members.

Well, Liz has been axed.

Shame she ever got through the door of number 10 in the first place.

"Forrest will sell down until he is near a free ride"??? You'd really better hope not.

Forrest was given £7.55 million quids' worth of shares (637 million shares valued at between 1.1p and 1.2p) within the up-front part of the 49% acquisition. I seriously doubt that any PI would want to see him selling enough shares to generate that sort of pound note value.

Forrest is selling 2 million shares a month??? Wrong, try 9.25 million in just six weeks.

And as for school fees? He's raised over £200k via those sales in six weeks... so unless he's got multiple kids all enrolled at Eton, I really don't think so.

Isn't he also due his first payment against the £6.25 million he's owed for the 49% acquisition fairly imminently?