Member Info for HeadInTheSand

Howey, for the record, you're definitely one included in my congratulations.

(Even despite the Qanon conspiracy theory rabbithole you recently got sucked down ;)

Well done.

Classy, BV... classy. I'll leave you to it.

BV, no humble pie being swallowed here in the least. For me, It's always been about the facts and what they mgiht turn out to be.

I have also congratulated everyone who I personally think deserves congratulations re this.

Your statement that I have in some way "failed" is utterly bizarre, but sadly, entirely in character. I'd suggest that while you remain incapable of showing any perception, at least try showing some class.

Finally we have the (start of an) answer to the only question that has ever mattered, namely "how much gas and by when?" - and this gives a much less vague set of pointers to what SFBY is going to deliver for ANGS in terms of revenue.

So...
We know that ANGS produced 5.4 mmscfd (= 1.8m therms) Jan-Mar and so met the hedge.
We know that this production might have been slightly hampered by work on the 2nd compressor, so might naturally be higher.
We know that the sidetrack is currently flowing at 4 mmscfd (= 1.33m therms) and should increase past that point.

This gives three possibles.

A. Where things are right now with the sidetrack (a total field production of 3.13m monthly therms) - but that's pessimistic

B. If current production is doubled by the sidetrack (a total field production of 3.6m monthly therms) - that's mid-band

C. If everything runs at the probable optimum (a total field production of 4.0m monthly therms) - that's probably topside

And that makes it easy to work out revenues during and post-hedge (presuming gas at 125p a therm).

Under scenario A, ANGS generates post hedge revenues of £23m from Apr-Dec 23, then post-hedge revenues of £33m from Jan-Dec 24, then post-hedge revenues of £17m from Jan-Jun 25, then annual revenues of £47m after that.

Under scenario B, ANGS generates post hedge revenues of £28m from Apr-Dec 23, then post-hedge revenues of £40m, from Jan-Dec 24, then post-hedge revenues of £20m from Jan-Jun 25, then annual revenues of £54m after that.

Under scenario C, ANGS generates post hedge revenues of £33m from Apr-Dec 23, then post-hedge revenues of £46m, from Jan-Dec 24, then post-hedge revenues of £23.5m from Jan-Jun 25, then annual revenues of £60m after that.

(And yes, any condensate revenues are on top of the above).

All of the above scenarios are genuinely transformational for the company. The c. £25m term debt it is currently carrying becomes a non-issue in all three, since it can be easily covered off and more from cashflow generated by sales.

As stated numerous times, I could easily see an SP nearing the 3p mark in the short-term - and especially if news of a consistent increased flow from the sidetrack over and above the initially announced 4mmscfd (=1.33m monthly therms) is forthcoming.

There'll be plenty of profit-taking/derisking shenanigans over the coming few weeks, but with today's news, I doubt that matters. If things re production stay as are (or indeed improve), then as I said a week ago, this makes ANGS look far more attractive as a mid-term prospect, rather than the trader's dream that it's been over too many years to count.

A sincere congratulations to all genuine long-term holders over what has been an incredibly protracted, arduous and torturous journey.

Yes Push, of course it's not exploration - it's another attempt to further develop an existing field. Whether that's reason enough to refuse to consider any other possible outcome apart from a doubling of existing production levels remains to be seen.

Push, I suspect you'd be hard pushed to find any company or individual that "plans for failure". However, there is this thing called "contingency planning"... or working out less than maximum positive "what ifs".

You've stated numerous times why you yourself are so positive - and that's fair enough. You may be proven right. We'll see relatively shortly.

Whistler, my views on ANGS aren't representative of my views on every single investment opportunity. I agree though - coming to one's own assessment of the odds on every opportunity, plus both the likelihood and the effects of more than one potential outcome of course defines the choices one makes.

Push, the core difference is that your assumptions are predicated on the sidetrack being 100% successful and doubling current production levels (which as you quite correctly point out would actually triple generated revenues, while the hedge remains in place).

I agree with pretty much everything you say... BUT ONLY IF the sidetrack delivers as you're assuming it will. In that case, the £25 million term debt will indeed become almost an irrelevance and everything will indeed come up roses.

However, apparently unlike you, I also think it worth considering other possibilities which have varying outcomes, ranging from slightly to very different, because of their effects on cashflow and the ability to service term debt.

As has always been the case, it's literally all and only about how much gas and by when.

BV, you do make me laugh.

My position has not changed on this one little bit. It's just that your lame caricature smear campaign has always been glaringly inaccurate.

I'm not sure that's necessarily the right question (in the event of a fully successful sidetrack). A better one IMO would be... when should one sell?

There's not much doubt in my mind that a fully successful sidetrack would see an almost immediate revaluation of ANGS by the market towards the 3p level. However, what is almost bound to happen then is you'll see a lot of investors bailing out, including:-

Short-term traders
The disingenuous cheerleading squad
Those who have had enough of what can only be called a torturous journey and just want out
Potentially many of those holding warrants and/or large amounts of shares (not jusr Knowe)
The more risk averse who may well want much more of a free ride on any remaining investment

All that would (as you imply) cause a drag on any further rises as they exit.

But (and again only in the event of a fully successful sidetrack), what is likely to happen, once the dust has settled on all that initial action? My opinion remains that the ANGS SP would rise undramatically but steadily as the additional revenue allows the company to pay off debt, so unless anyone wants to immediately profit-take or derisk, avoiding the initial scrum might well be a better policy.

ANGS has roughly £25 million of term debt it needs to pay off by end Q2 2025. That's made up of the £4.1 million catch-up payment (due by Jun this year), the £3 million short-term loan just (somewhat oddly) taken out by Sep this year, the £5 million or so still owed to Paul Forrest (staged payments to end by Jun 2025) and the £13 million or so inc interest owed on the initial £12 million loan (by Jun 2025). The additional revenue generated by a fully successful sidetrack would easily allow it to clear off those debts by or indeed well before term on each (though I doubt they'd pay off Mercuria's £12 million loan or PF's £5 million owed early).

So it's more than possible - again, in the event of a fully successful sidetrack - that ANGS should be considered as more of a valid mid-term investment prospect, rather than one to join the rush for the short-term profit-taking door on, the instant news becomes known.

Just a personal opinion, but (yes again, in the event of a fully successful sidetrack) the SP might well be higher say in 6, 9 or 12 months' time that it would be the moment fully positive sidetrack news is broken.

So to me, the choice of timing would be if anything more important.

AIMO of course - and there are still other very different possible outcomes to consider..

Howey, anyone watching and posting on UKOG (as I was and did a few years back) could not have failed to be aware of Heid and her shtick. It was literally constant.

Be that as it may, I have you down (rightly or wrongly) as one of the relatively few good guys on here, with sincerely held views. So although it is to some extent disappointing to see you lured in by this particular Qanon-esque conspiracy theory/smear campaign (the motives behind which seem to me to be as clear as day), I of course acknowledge your right to your opinions.

...and now Ocelot regurgitated a blatant lie in an effort to smear and discredit. Yawn.

I am somewhat aware of who Heid is from a couple of years back when she was putting a serious shift in as disingenuous ramper in chief on UKOG. As such, I wouldn't even give her the time of day, let alone ever have some sort of conversation with her.

And of course, I've never contributed anything to Winnifrith's site. He's another individual I have zero time for.

Anyway, I thought I was meant to be some ageing green journalist? And also about 10 other posting IDS here? Honestly, the efforts being put in to discredit are staggering... and beg the question, why are the cheerleading squad so determined to smear and stifle what is after all just a counter opinion to their own? Why are they nervous?

Gallder, you're quite right. I did forget that £4.15 million "catch-up" payment (whatever that is) its due in Q2 this year from memory, isn't it?

But if the sidetrack is 100% successful and doubles current monthly production rates, that extra liability I forgot would only extend overall debt repayment time out by a little over 2 months, so not really a big deal, if this is what actually occurs.

As ever, how much gas and by when... it's all about the degree of success of the sidetrack.

This is like watching a combination of kids' TV and a slo-mo breakdown.

This week, I am now apparently also 360Phil (sorry, 360Phil - don't ask me why) and apparently also Gallder (sorry, Gallder - but again, don't ask me why).

I believe Gallder just copy n pasted my entire post.

Here's the section you seem incapable of understanding, BV.

"As to current debt, ANGS has say £11.5 million of the loan left, say £5 million owing to Paul Forrest and £3 million on this new short-term loan. Taking into account interest due on the first of those two, it looks like it'd take ANGS roughly 12 months to clear all of that. Happy days (obviously)."

I'd say that 12 months is very clearly mentioned in that. BV, is your stupidity something you learned, or is it hereditary?

PS BV, is there no start to your talents? You clearly can't count "reading" amongst them anyway.

Literally nowhere have I said that it'd take the company 2 years to be debt-free in the event of a fully successful sidetrack. I've said 12 months or less.

What I stated - and let me lay it out for you clearly, because you equally clearly need someone to - is that in the event of a fully successful sidetrack, in just over two years time, you'd have a debt-free company (because it'd have paid all that off in 12 months or less) then set to generate £45 to £50 million of revenue per annum out of SFBY (because at that point, the hedges terminate).

Do I get royalties?

BV, nobody said 2 years to be debt-free. You're getting confused (clearly easily done) with the 2 years and 3 months left on the hedge.

Honestly, your lack of understanding of any details is simply jaw-dropping.

You're quite right. I'm not considering any significant potential to come out of any other ANGS site at this time - and nor, would I suggest, is the market.

If ANGS manages to prove otherwise at some stage, then obviously that would have a further positive impact on the SP.

If that condition I mentioned is fully met Baits, then yes of course.

Actually, that 12 months to clear all existing debt in the event of a fully successful sidetrack is probably too conservative. It could take ANGS less than that, if it so chose.