Member Info for HeadInTheSand

Aaaaah (not so) happy memories...

Emails sent by Amit to DavidGreece for the latter to publicise on the bulletin boards...

Runways being built in the jungle...

Aberdeenman allegedly going to the Hanovermesse and reporting back on how good the working Onitor he saw was...

Global distribution deals signed with a 2 bit novelty golfball supplier...

The appearance of a wise old guru (Brokerman) who - also getting his IDs mixed up - turned out to be a ramptastic foul-mouthed maniac called GoldBullion on other share discussion boards...

The same Brokerman persuading the CTAG shareholder action group that nobody needed to go to the AGM, because Amit couldn't pass a vote on a mere show of hands from those actually present (which is what Amit promptly did)...

This really does merit a Netflix miniseries.

Bulletin board activity on CTAG? After all these years? Whoda thunk?

And the return of Aberdeenman, ramper par excellence... those with longer memories may recall that back in the heady days, this individual set up a (thankfully short-lived) PR company along with fellow cheerleader MrSelfridge, which had a mission statement along the lines of "helping pre-revenue companies maximise their share price".

You couldn't make it up... (and I'm not).

Can't recall the company name... and can't be bothered to look. Something like Knightsbridge or Kensington.

This isn't down to PF selling. It doesn't seem to be down to overall output either, which though inconsistent, is on the rise.

ANGS cannot possibly require additional working capital right now...

...can it?

He actually can't sell out entirely... well not for another 6 to 7 months anyway.

Not pretending I massively understand them, Odins. Why not take a look yourself?

Heh. Nope, just a fan of language.

Singhie is clearly not an insider. He's basically extrapolating from what is effectively a spreadsheet he's created. Its accuracy of course all depends on whether the assumptions he's built in turn out to be accurate or not.

Next door, an erstwhile prolific poster who regardless of anything else does know a lot about drilling is suggesting other reasons for the drop in daily production.

(I was actually debunking/correcting the earlier claim that Paul Forrest "has the ability to sell his 500M shares again in next 1-2 months"... because that's dramatically overstated and patently inaccurate).

Let's get the facts right.

PF has 376 million shares.

He can sell 60m of those (valued at 1.6p each) whenever he likes.

He can sell up to 136.5m of them (valued at 1.2p each) in the next quarter (starting June 1st, I believe).

...except Forrest has no ability to sell shares right now, courtesy of the lock-in rules. Well, apart from possibly the 60.6 million he got at 1.6p in lieu of that staged £1 million payment for the acquisition... but why would he be selling those at a loss?

...recently from both Sageman and OnBeyondZebra.

ANGS is now largely a known thing. And because of that, you won't see the volatility so beloved by the short-term squad - there's not much left to ramp and nothing to hang any "5p by next month"!" BS on. Which is why the short-term squad have largely upped sticks and moved on, leaving more than a few wondering why all the expectations that they were promised by the cheerleaders have been dashed.

IMV ANGS is now a much more sedate prospect. Sure, there's selling going on as rainbow chasers exit looking for another get rich quick share... and PF may well sell down a load more shares over the next 7 to 9 months too, which will put the brakes on any short-term rise, BUT...

...the mid-term (12 months to two years) prospects for ANGS as an investment look better than they ever have. No of course it's not going to be the multi-bagging rocket that the disingenuous have yelled for so long that it would be (it never was), but IMO it's now a solid mid-term prospect.

However, expect plenty more shenanigans in the short-term.

Baits, try this as a UK-centric article:-

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/shares/2018/11/09/the-truth-about-market-makers/

Precisely, OBZ... this is a medium term play now (as it was always going to be if the sidetrack proved successful).

Sadly some less balanced here clearly think that there's some grand conspiracy dragging the SP down and are seethingly throwing around their usual insults at all and sundry because this share hasn't instantly multi-bagged as per their false expectations. They need a reality check... and to learn patience.

As StarBright has said, this isn't at all about the market makers.

Instead it's about harbouring "get rich quick" false expectations of multi-bagging (something that the deliberately deceptive cheerleading squad have banked on for months and months... have you noticed that a number of usually vociferous individuals are no longer posting?). And of course, George continually added fuel to that fire with his wild over-optimism, which really didn't help. At all.

Having said that, as I said a week or so back - and this is the precise reason why many of the highly vocal short-term squad have moved onto other stocks where they can run the same schtick with the more naive - ANGS is not only in the best position I've ever known it to be, it's also in the calmest position too.

This was never going to be a rocket ship (that was always cheerleader BS) - but IMO it's now set to be a sensible and slow burn mid-term hold. Okay so there's a potential 375 million share millstone that may slow any SP rise down (if PF decides to sell his holding over the next 7 or so months), but we now largely know all there is to know about ANGS. We know the size of PF's holding, we know the size and terms of the finex and derivative liabilities (as we always have)... but we now know the probable rate of revenue/cash generation. And it's that latter that makes ANGS a far less spectacular but equally far more stable investment

There are precious few hooks now on which to hang a ramptastic fairy story - and that's a really good thing (except for the short-term boys) . So instead it's now now it's all about patience and steady as she goes.

...except in the short- to mid-term, as made very clear by the new (and whole heap more realistic CEO), the company's whole focus is going to be maximising and securing the most value out of Saltfleetby. And that is as it should be.

back of a *** packet and taking into account what's left of the hedges over the next 2 years...

at average gas pricing of say 100p per therm and presuming flowrates hold up (aof course, they may improve), angs should be generating revenues of around £28m per year (plus condensate sales) between now and end jun 2025.

at that point the current hedges terminate and by that point the company should certainly have paid down/off its current finex/debt liabilities, which have eye-watering interest rates attached.

that would then leave angs pretty much entirely in the clear (except for that ongoing 8% revenue over-ride clause, but that'd be more than manageable) and again as starbright says, that level of generated free cashflow would indeed be notice-worthy.

SV, accumulated losses are a very different thing to current debt.

I suggest you might want to educate yourself on what a company balance sheet is and means.

Chesh, all I'd dare to give is my personal opinion that ANGS is in a better place today than I've ever known it to be (the famous "how much gas and by when?" question apparently having been answered and a realist, rather than Hans Christian Andersen now occupying the CEO's seat).

What that means for the SP? This is AIM, so nothing necessarily makes any sense.

Wise words from Oktane. Hence it being a good idea to work out what revenues ANGS are likely to generate over the next few years with a gas flow of say 3.1 million therms a month, taking into account already incurred payback of finex liabilities and the hedge, while it remains in place (both due to end by Jul 1st 2025). That'd give a start point from which to have a stab at working out mid-term value.

The big and unknown variable is of course market gas pricing . But pick a number as an average - for argument's sakes and to keep the maths simple, say 100p per therm. Once the hedges are over and the debts paid back, that'd give ANGS an annual revenue of just over £36m out of Sfby starting from 1st July 2025, with condensate sales on top.

StarBright is correct. The terms of large chunks of ANGS's overall debt are indeed notably onerous, so therefore getting those paid down sooner rather than later would be a good thing.

Debt in itself is not a bad thing, but it is when it's at Wonga-style rates. Now that ANGS looks to be in a more healthy and cash-generative position, it should now be able to secure new debt at less Shylockesque rates, if needed.