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Well, consistent current production volumes have been confirmed by the company at the levels that a fair few here already worked out (9.5 mmscfd, with a probable further rise to 10 mmscfd if things optimise re ongoing clean-up over the next weeks).

Agreed that it's also interesting to see a stake in the ground has been put re predicted winter month revenues (£2.5 million for winter 2023). As expected, at these levels of cash generation, paying off of all existing incurred debt and other liabilities in a timely fashion should present no problems.

None of this is exactly new news although it's good to see it stated in black and white. I wonder if this will finally be the catalyst to get the market viewing ANGS as a worthwhile investment prospect?

Rusty, Sageman is correct. It's the generation of free cash flow that's required in order to be able to pay off incurred debt. The two go inexorably hand in hand.

Sageman, as you have said, debt comes in several forms.

Ocelot has (conveniently?) forgotten about the "up to £5.25 million" still owed to PF of the purchase of his 49%, which explains the major part of variance between his overly rosy numbers and mine.

He's also (conveniently?) ignored interest (at Wonga rates) on the balance of the £12 million original loan and the and also on the short-term bridging loan.

Finally he's also (conveniently?) failed to take into account the odd "catch-up" payment due presumably on the hedges, which from memory is about £4 million.

Hence total debt of c. £20 to £24 million, leaving aside anything else to do with the derivatives.

Debt? By my calcs, about £20 million including interest payable due over the next 2 years, but that doesn't take into account any "catch-up" payments due or anything else to do with the hedges. Of course, apart from that odd catch-up payment, production should easily take care of all remaining hedge contracts.

Gallder, think there's a typo in your P2 calcs.

You say:-

At an average of 100,000 a day 324m minus (730 days x100,000) = 251m x 8% =(20.08m therms)

So Angus receives the revenue for 291m - 20.08m = 270.92m therms + £15.3m from Mercuria.

Line 1 states 251 m therms, but line 2 uses 291m therms.

Just thought you'd like to know - and of course correcting this won't stop the P2 case being extremely profitable.

Whe4to says "the man is a serial winner...."

Well, he's certainly a serial something - and the next few days will show exactly what.

By the way, I don't think posting a rah-rah speech from Amit assuring everyone of his trustworthiness and commitment to returning shareholder value dated from over seven years ago back in 2016 is going to reassure many. After all, he's issued many assurances - and it's hard to pick out even one that turned out to be anywhere near reality.

However, in what I am assured is a multiverse where anything that can possibly happen will definitely happen somewhere at least, maybe the leopard will change its spots for once... let's see.

Maddog, I agree that, even taking the current debt into consideration, the SP is undervalued when considered against asset value (which is why Sageman states - quite rightly in my opinion - that "this is now a much de-risked long term hold").

If ANGS knocks out 3 million therms a month, even with the hedges and the current low price of gas, that'd generate enough revenue to comfortably pay back current debt (whether that's £14 million or £20 million) and more over the roughly 2 years between now and end Jun 2025.

As I've said, I suspect the market now wants to see hard numbers showing actual generated revenues and debt actually being paid back. Because it's difficult to explain the current slow decline of the SP otherwise.

Re current debts:-

There's the balance of the original £12 million loan plus interest at a rate of LIBOR + 12% to pay off by June 2025. As of the last FY Report, ANGS seems to have paid off £450k of the principal, leaving £11.55 million plus interest to pay off between Sep 1st 2022 and Jun 30th 2025 (£5.25m plus interest by end Sep 23, another £4.2m plus interest by end Sep 24, then a final £2.1m plus interest by end Mar 25). The company may of course may have paid off more than £450k since Sep 1st last year.

There's up to £5.25 million left of the original "up to £6.25 million" to pay to in stages FESL for the 49% acquisition, again to conclude by June 2025 (ANGS paid 60.6 million shares in lieu of £1 million against this in Jan this year).

There's the £3 million short-term bridging loan at interest rates of SONIA + 15% facility to pay off by Jun this year, unless extended by another 3 months.

I think that's about it at the moment.

P2, can I recommend the calmer demeanour you've recently been showing next door.

Leaving aside your shall we say over-enthusiasm of a month or so back, I actually doubt that you and I differ that much in our views.

BV, get a grip. I didn't join LSE to comment on ANGS.

I have to say it's worth checking chorna's LSE post history.

You may just get the slightest feeling of deja vu, comparing the post made today with the last post chorna made back in mid 2019...

PS for clarity, I should add that, although I genuinely don't believe that the current SP represents an accurate value for the company (again presuming we accurately now know everything worth knowing), I won't be buying back in, solely on the basis that the company's long chequered history combined with the current counter-intuitive SP direction doesn't give me a sufficient level of confidence.

HI UKHeaven.

1. No I don't think the current ANGS SP represents true value (presuming everything we've now been told by the company is accurate).

2. Yes, the SP before the last RNS was continually hyped, both by short-term traders, dreamers and GL himself for that matter.

3. Yes the last RNS was undoubtedly positive, but the market seems not to be that interested at the moment. Which is why it'll take some hard revenue numbers to make the point.

All IMO.

It actually all makes sense if you take as your starting point that - like so many other AIM stocks - the ANGS SP has always been primarily driven by sentiment (which let's face it is a hardly logical force).

A share that is based on unknowns (as ANGS was until very recently) is always going to be sentiment-driven, as it attracts both cheerleading short-term traders and "get rich quick" rainbow-chasing PIs... plus it also gives the opportunity to more iffy "interim" CEOs to make massively misleading and inaccurate projections that set equally massively false expectations... which in turn increases sentiment propulsion.

But now there are precious few speculative unknowns about ANGS, the sentiment engine has simply run out of juice.... so it's now going to involve waiting for the actual hard numbers to do the talking.

BV I've always been completely candid about my position with ANGS. I lost an insignificant sum when I decided to sell out (which btw really wasn't 6 years ago at all), but yes I was irritated by this and particularly at the constant disconnect between company assurances/statements and the reality of things as it transpired.

P2 who is posting occasionally on ANGS next door claims that he himself asked for his LSE account to be deleted. He also claims to have already set up a new LSE ID. One or both of those claims may well be true.

What is undeniably true - according to his posts next door at least - is that he is now much more lukewarm about ANGS's short-term SP prospects than he was when posting so vociferously and positively over here.

So where did all (or the balance of) those 270,000,000 shares additionally issued since Q3 2019 end up, I wonder?

I must admit that I don't see what an admissions document has to do with anything at all. Since being booted off AIM, CTAG hasn't since been admitted to any trading exchange, so any admissions document is entirely irrelevant.

Separately to that, the number of shares that any board of directors can issue at any time is governed by resolutions that may get agreed subsequently, so again, I have no idea of the relevance of any admission document.

It's also beyond clear that (if the Cloudtag website is to be believed... which historically speaking is a particularly sizeable "if", admittedly) well over 200 million new shares have been issued since Q3 2019. No idea for what purpose, or whether these were given away or sold... but the apparent fact remains that they were issued.

Regardless of how this torturously protracted soap opera turns out, the above is an incontrovertible fact.

Again I agree with you, OBZ. The SP is moving unexpectedly downwards (at least in the short-term) which seems markedly counter-intuitive.

It doesn't seem to be field-related, because daily production, although variable, seems to be on the up.

It *could* be background selling - though it can't be PF doing that right at the moment. It *could* however be Knowe, courtesy of the recent CLN.

It *could* (I suppose) be another placing being worked in the background? Though I'd be staggered if this was the case right at this moment - surely ANGS couldn't need more cash right now, given revenues generated by current production volumes, even allowing for Wonga rate debts being paid down.

Or maybe it's simply that the biggest driver of the ANGS up until very recently has been wild sentiment (gratefully leveraged and added to by the now largely absent short-term cheerleading squad) - and we're now in the calmer and more boring waters, where the actual numbers (rather than deliberate BS from the pompom wavers and GL too, for that matter) will eventually do the talking.

Regardless, given where things are at this moment, I understand your decision to hold off dipping back in just yet.

Hey hey RK. Not been here for ages and don't even know what made me look in.

I'd entirely forgotten about the female Chinese secret agent/lawyer allegedly sent in to infiltrate the SAG... that one's a cracker and should definitely make the list.

Yes, I'll be keeping an occasional eye out to see if a leopard can for once in all eternity change its spots - best of luck!