Member Info for HeadInTheSand

BV, honestly. Do try to act like you've made it out of primary school. Newsflash... posting mildly obscene insults really doesn't make you look big or clever.

Another educational newsflash for you... here's a clue for you re my last post. The word "irony" does not mean "a bit like iron".

WG, I did mention (as others have) the potential shortish-term cash flow issue. I fully agreee that, what with PF's track record of apparently dumping shares as fast as he can, the last thing ANGS needs to do (if it's interested in supporting the SP) is to pay him another truckload of shares in lieu of the next staged acquisition payment.

@Howey, in fact all of my posts have always been that brilliant... it's just that you've all of a sudden started to realise this ;)

The only other factor I can think of (and one which could be easily argued against, but still) is share overhang? Maybe the likes of PF at FESL are hell-bent for whatever reason on turning their entire holdings into cash as fast as possible?

But if so, that would of course beg the exact same question, namely why would insiders sell now when the share price seems to all intents and purposes to be at counter-intuitively depressed levels?

You're welcome, but for the record, I'm categorically not looking to convince anyone to buy or sell anything. I've not even convinced myself.

I'm just asking what seems to me to be a blindingly obvious question that could do with a clear answer.

So I'm a fan of simple but key questions. Maybe just maybe some may remember me asking "How much gas and by when?" once or twice...

Now that's been answered, here's another:-

"Why is the ANGS SP as pitifully low as it is?"

Let's crack some figures, which I have quite deliberately kept conservative.

ANGS is knocking out 3 million therms a month, give or take. That's 36 million therms a year.

In the 12 months starting July 1st 2023, it has hedged 18 million therms of production, delivering known and capped revenues of £7.5 million.

The remaining 18 million therms of production get sold on the open market. Let's take an annual average price of 80p per therm. That's an additional £14.4 million of revenue for an annual total then of £21.9 million.

Then In the 12 months starting July 1st 2024, ANGS has hedged 15 million therms of production, delivering known and capped revenues of £6.0 million.

The remaining 21 million therms of production get sold on the open market. At the same annual average price of 80p per therm, that's an additional £16.8 million of revenue for an annual total then of £22.8 million.

Year 3 and onwards? No hedges, so estimated annual revenues of £28.8 million for a fair few years.

Now sure, ANGS has c. £25 million of debt to pay off over the next 24 months, but that looks easily do-able from revenues of £21.9m + £22.8m = £44.7m. Year three and onwards with no debts and no hedges is all gravy.

Yes I know that production may well be more than 3m therms a month. Yes I know that I've ignored condensate sales. I did say I was being conservative...

But even with that conservative approach, from the above numbers, why is ANGS's current MCap only c £41 million???

I offer a few possibilities:-

a) The market's full of idiots, all of whom have missed this gem of an investment.

b) The idiots are actually those (myself included) who think the current SP should be notably higher, because they don't have a clue on how to value a company.

c) The opex costs of running Sfby are WAY higher than anyone has estimated, which are going to cause nasty cashflow issues over the next 2 years as debts are required to be paid off.

d) There are factors in the background, unknown by any PI, that are set to negatively affect the SP for the foreseeable.

e) God only knows. This is AIM. Only sentiment (not logic) ever applies.

Take your pick.

Going by the reactions of some on here (if genuine), it's hard to imagine a more classic example.

Oktane...

"Is it the super low volume, or down 5% on the day that tells you there is a steady buyer?

Asking for a friend..."

That pithy little zinger deserves a round of applause. Made me laugh anyway.

If a major corporate buyer was involved, what with all the non-disclosure BS that Amit's been keen to ladle on, it would insist upon checking any and all Cloudtag comms relating to the alleged transaction.

Sorry but there is no way that even anyone with a reasonable English O level grade would have vetted and okayed today's announcement to go out as malformed, cack-handed and clumsy as it is, let alone the communications and legal departments of said alleged major corporate buyer.

As usual, this is a meaningless update penned by someone who can't even write good English. It's certainly not been checked or proof-read.

The amateurish howlers are too many to mention, but here are a couple of beauties:-

"The proceeds arising from these both sales will be distributed..."

and

"DaaP sale announcement will be made by during week ending 7th July 2023..."

Well, I suppose everyone now waits until by during week ending 7th July (sic). Hey, what's another 6 weeks after 6 years of nothing.

...and BV slams into reverse gear as fast as he can. As expected.

As anyone on this BB knows, all I have ever asked is "How much gas and by when?" Being aware of ANGS's fixed term debts, liabilities and obligations and the cash generation required to service those the more adult here will have instantly understood the literally crucial relevance of said question.

That question has now been answered - and now that it has been, to be fair, I remain not a little surprised at the slow decline of the ANGS SP since that info was revealed. To me, that's pretty much entirely counter-intuitive, but as such, it does bolster my decision re investing here or not.

That made me laugh too, 360Phil... especially after BV's months of slavish brown-nosing. Hell hath no fury like a disappointed fanboi, clearly.

Mind you, he'll be okay. Next for BV will be demanding to know what P2/Bubble's average is, then he'll claim that Bubble is not a genuine shareholder.. and finally he'll insist that Bubble is in fact just another swampy multi-ID and the same person as you (or me, or anyone else daring to hold an opinion on ANGS that is less fanatical and less blinkered than his own).

It is quite genuinely amusing.

"So it's now totally binary tomorrow. It's either genuine and happening or there's a snag."

It is indeed now totally binary... except you don't correctly specify the true binary options, which actually are:-

It's either genuine or it's just more of Amit's never-ending BS.

Errr yes. This is what everyone's been discussing all day.

Why don't you ask P2/Bubblewossname if provisioning a third compressor at this stage would make any sense?

(PS I agree with Howey on this).

Not that it matters in the least but...

"The company shall announce on the website on 1 June 2023 in regards to the DaaP Sale"

...isn't even proper English.

Gallder's numbers are on point.

Someone yesterday (and quite possibly him actually) pointed out that, when viewed on an overall basis, ANGS's current levels of debt should be very easily satisifiable from revenues generated by current production levels, there may be a specific short-term cash flow issue over this summer.

Noticed that throwaway reference to a 3rd compressor (with some surprise) myself, Howey.

Like you, I believe it to be a typo for "well", because although it's been mentioned about as a possibility for the mid-term future to maintain existing flowrates as pressure depletes, if a 3rd compressor had already been delivered and provisioned, I'm pretty sure we would have been clearly told.

BV, how about trying to act your age, not your shoe size?

Having finally (seemingly at least) left the Hans Christian Lucan era of endlessly over-promising and then under-delivering behind, perhaps it's best for posters on this BB not to propagate the same.

Today's RNS states "anticipates exceeding 10 mmscfd"... and that would be absolutely fine and dandy, so there's really no need to set higher expectations that might end up getting dashed.

As I said, today's RNS is not really new news. What it says in terms of both overall production volumes and expected revenues had already been worked out by several here weeks ago, so one might reasonably expect the contents of this morning's RNS to already be built into the SP - but again as commented, it is good to see this stated in black and white.

One would think that a company even carrying say £25 million of debt but with very realistic prospects of generating highly profitable revenues in the region of £30m per annum once the hedges are concluded in just two years' time should be valued notably higher than the current £40m MCAP...

...but this is ANGS, a share where counter-intuitive SP reaction to news seems to permanently hold sway. I therefore literally have no clue what effect (if any) today's RNS will have.

Yes, that estimated £2.5 million monthly revenue figure only applies to winter 2023. It will of course be lower than that in off-peak months on either side of that. BUT...

Also needing to be taken into account when predicting forward revenues beyond winter 2023 is the reducing drag on generatable revenues caused by the hedges, which are set to conclude by end June 2025. If there were no hedges in place, then average ANNUAL revenues of £30 million out of Saltfleetby would not be an unrealistic projection.