Member Info for HeadInTheSand

Re debt repayment and cash generation, the interims only cover the period Oct 22 to Mar 23, i.e. pre the sidetrack kicking in.

It's what has happened since the end of April that's of greater interest, so any forward-looking comments that may be made are liable to have more of a positive effect than any historic results, given the period being reported upon..

I've simply asked if you had anything like a worthwhile opinion on two perfectly reasonable questions.

To nobody's surprise, the answer is of course no, you don't.

(correction... between January and June this year, courtesy of the secondary hedge as reported)

Or here's another reasonable question. If ANGS is making the tidy sums that it seems to be, as reported upon with commendable accuracy by Gallder, and especially bolstered by going on an extra £4m of bonus revenue between January and July this year...

...why did ANGS feel the need in March to borrow an extra £3 million at 19.5%? Any ideas?

You don't need to be a finance expert to borrow money at 19.5%...

BV, why don't you just once try acting like an adult and contributing something more than playground insults to any discussion? For example, have you got any opinion on why the ANGS SP currently remains as stubbornly low as it is?

The word to best describe the ANGS SP remains "counter-intuitive".

Yes, paying off very expensive debt (either via generated cash or via refinancing at a less painful rate) remains key.

I'm not sure how much useful extra data the HY report will give, considering it deals with Oct 22-Mar 23, i.e. pre-sidetrack. Hopefully it'll show a further reduction in the outstanding amount of the £12 million loan (£11.55m of principal left to pay off as of Sept 30th 22)... it should do, considering ANGS benefitted substantially from the secondary hedge in Jan-Mar this year.

ANGS is also benefitting (albeit a bit less lucratively) from the secondary hedge in the current quarter, but come the end of this month, we're back to just the original hedge arrangement being in place.

I'm not sure about a background volume seller... if it was someone holding enough volume to make a meaningful difference (PF being the most likely suspect... and that's presuming he's even allowed to sell at the moment), we should be seeing TR-1s...

It's genuinely baffling.

If that's the case, we're due some TR-1s. It would also be worth asking oneself the question "Why is this guy who's clearly got an inside track continuing to sell?"

I'm personally not yet convinced he is carrying on liquidating his holdings - as I said, a TR-1 would make things clear.

Hope, re loans.

The amount currently outstanding on the original £12m loan (which ends Jun 2025) is unknown. All we do know for sure is that as of the last FY end (Sep last year), ANGS had paid back £450k of the capital on this. Nobody outside the company has any clue how much has been paid off since that point.

More recently, ANGS has borrowed a further £3m (in March this year) on a short-term bridging basis (3 months, extendable to 6 if wished).

Absolutely agreed that, given the very high interest rates attaching to both, ANGS should look at paying both of these off as soon as it's possible, either from generated cashflow, or by refinancing at much more preferable rates (which may well now be available to a company actually producing good volumes), or a combination of the two.

There are other ANGS liabilities (the remainder of the hedge, plus further payments of up to £5.25 million to Paul Forrest for the 49% acquisition - both of which arrangements also conclude by mid-2025), but at current monthly revenue levels/gas pricing the totality of all debt should be more than manageable by the company.

Looking a bit better today - though I am still surprised that it's taken a notable increase in forward gas pricing to make would-be purchasers sit up and take notice. I mean, sure higher gas prices are good news for ANGS,,, but it already had a pretty good buy case before those.

As to PF, I am not sure the question "what would you do if you were PF?" has much relevance, because if I were him, I wouldn't have sold off 145+ million shares since the 30th of March this year.

The sensible answer to that question would seem of course to be "Hang on to one's shareholding for the foreseeable"... but that's definitely not what he's been doing (to date, at least), even with his inside track.

However, we've not had notification of any recent TR-1s since his 107 million share dump at the end of April, so presuming he's now in a period where he could again start selling if he wanted to, maybe he's finally changed tack?

No contradiction there BV. With Lucan at the helm, I'd never have considered dipping back in for a microsecond, no matter what he said in interview or RNS - solely because whether accidentally or not, he continually failed to tell the truth.

I gave you one definition of an idiot in my last post. Here's another - someone who refuses to evaluate new evidence as it becomes available and who equally refuses even to consider any alternate viewpoint, come what may.

BV, I don't think anyone apart from an idiot would buy into a stock on the basis of gaining "mates"... plus if buying in got me "mates" like your good self... well, put it this way, I can think of just a few better marketing strategies.

More seriously, I was genuinely tempted to dip back in a month or so ago., because (as I've said several times) I could only see the ANGS SP heading in an upward direction - and relatively quickly too.

But I didn't... and it didn't either, for reasons that remain entirely counter-intuitive. So I suppose that, even though all logic tells me that ANGS is now a good bet... on an totally non-logical basis (but one completely supported by the current reality of things), I just can't bring myself to trust this stock.

The forecast winter month revenues AB has put out there are not wrong and have been commented on before.

In fact, if you pick an average annual gas price of say 80p per therm over the entire year, then ANGS is set to generate revenues of £22m + £23m + £30m over the next three years - and that's not small change by any yardstick. Needless to say, if annual average gas pricing goes higher than that, so do ANGS's revenues in line.

This is so glaringly obvious that it's staggering that current SP levels and the daily demand for shares both remain bafflingly low.

"I hope I haven't missed anything LOL!"

Yes BV, you have. The plot. In fact, let alone missed it... you've clearly lost it.

(Why oh why does anyone over the age of 15 think that adding "LOL" to their posts in some way increases their weight or value?)

I'm with CITM on this. ANGS is transforming into a mature (and okay, to a certain extent "boring") company which should then start to get valued on fundamentals. This is clearly already in progress, which is why Joey's otherwise reasonable questions are largely irrelevant right now.

The one thing that I think continues to surprise everyone more than a little is the current depressed SP and the lack of action around it - odd for a company that even with the current hedges and the current price of gas is set to generate annual revenues of c. £22m, then c. £23m, then c. £30m over the next 36 months. Maybe it is wariness over the potential short-term cashflow hiccup, combined with PF's apparent readiness to sell down his holdings as fast as he can - I certainly can't think of much else to explain current SP levels.

The half year report isn't IMV going to change much, because of the pre-sidetrack period that covers. However if nothing changes for the better in the meantime, the next FY report (due Mar 2024) should have a definitely positive impact.

I've had to fight the temptation to explain the entirely correct use of the modal question mark to Milender. It'd just be too off-topic.

No you didn't Milender.

However, addressing me, BV in the post directly preceding yours stated: "As you said to your cronies on the other site..."

Hence my mentioning next door.

Reading... it's really not that difficult. Perhaps try it?

Sageman, I think the bridging loan was taken to address the potential shortfall (as I posted previously, no company arranges to borrow £3 million at an eye-popping 19.5% just for the hell of it). I also imagine that facility will be extended by the extra three months.

Freely agreed that ANGS is now in a very different and much more positive place. As I've posted more than once, I suspect this is now a matter of patience (which is something that the adults on this BB including your good self will have already realised).

On a 24 month or more viewpoint, it all looks plain sailing from here - I suspect it'll now be a slow and steady rise over the mid-term. Don't know if it'll get to that 4p level (£160m MCap) level within the next two years, (I reckon the slight revenue millstone of the remaining hedges will throttle things back some while they're still in play) but still, the SP should do very nicely.

Needless to say, the usual kindergarten suspects on here will continue with their tiresome squeaking - but that's unavoidable so hardly worth worrying about.

Good luck to you.

I'm happy to own my words, BV. I'll leave the myth-making to you.

By the way, if ANGS was now swimming in sufficient cash to cover any short-term cashflow hiccups as you allege, a rational person might ask why on earth it needed to arrange a short-term (3 to 6 months) bridging facility at 19.5%?

...and up pop the outliers.

1. BV again, what are you talking about? Of course I've not said anything of the sort on the other site... so what pray tell is "getting harder"? Is making stuff up all you can do?

2. Milender, sorry to disappoint, but I just have the one ID here (and just the one identical ID next door. The much-used multi-ID accusation is again a not at all sophisticated attempt to discredit. Is this still really necessary, now that ANGS is in a much better place than it used to be?

I'm sure CITM is entirely correct in his supposition. It was important for ANGS to RNS this info, just as it is about to go into its own actual short period of non-production. It's also good to hear that production volumes seem steady around the 9.5mmscfd mark, which should easily be more than enough to handle existing liabilities and generate a tasty excess (with the possible exception of a short-term cashflow hiccup needing managing between now and Sept).

As for "hint hint"? Looking at the static SP and the minimal level of trades, it seems like nobody's got the slightest interest in any supposed hint.

Mind you, since RH got his hands on the corporate communications pen, at least now the hugely over-egged flights of wild fancy only come from one or two outliers on this BB, rather than from the ANGS executive board itself - and that is without doubt a very good thing indeed.