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PFP clearly has no money and I am unsure of the current Board's capability in raising the cash required to again, secure the asset. I hear that AFG was sent away to not only do the deal, but secure the finance to fund it - no small task given the history of this circus.. However, I hear they are close to doing both, but on what terms I have no idea.
SRB you are deluded - utterly and completely. Nick Trew lead the acquisition of the Licence(s) for 35m quid. Under his watch, the Licence(s) then went walk about. He then proceeded to blow up another 10m in cash, trying to get those Licences back, by pursuing a legal action, that in fact, would never result in a return of the Licences. Good intentions or not, how you can suggest that his demise was to due to Jennings is a complete joke. The only the things that both of you have in common is, as previously mentioned, your abject failure and ongoing delusion. All the history and *******s aside, for the benefit of the investors here looking for salvation, do you dispute any of the "insights" I provided in my earlier post?
OK here are some useful insights: (1) Despite the UK High Court ruling, it should be clear to everyone by now there is NO chance of the Licence (s) being "returned" via the Moz Courts . The matter can only be resolved via negotiation and it will cost money to acquire the Licence (s) - they will not be handed back on a silver platter (2) AFG has already delivered to PFP more than one Term Sheet, the first was delivered months ago - only the PFP Board can tell you why the Terms Sheet(s) were not accepted? (3) rumour has it, the Chinese have done a deal with Cavaco and Cavaco confirmed this in an email he circulated to certain individuals (including the regulator), many months back (4) PFP have been unable to verify this although, again, rumour has it that the Chinese are about to declare their hand (5) AFG, being a Hong Kong registered entity, is the only one in the room with any relationship with the Chinese (see 7 below), (6) Mr van Niekerk is the only one in the room with a relationship with the Veloso's (7) The Chinese in question hold all their interest Moz mining interests via a Hong Kong entity, thus AFG having at least some relationship given it to is based in Hong Kong (8) If the Chinese have already transacted with Cavaco, it provides the reason for the talk around negotiations having only been around 50%, being the Veloso's interest - although the Term Sheets were always conditional upon 100% of the LIcence(s) (9) If the Chinese declare their hand as expected, then I would guess a deal will be put to PFP very soon (10) You must ignore all the bull**** being spewed by SRB and Nick Trew - collectively, they know less than ZERO and are both bitter, twisted and deluded former CEO"s who were simply way out of their depth. The whole idea that SRB "left" is complete and utter nonsense as is the whole "uncovering fraud" rubbish - they are a pathetic attempt to hide his abject failure!
So much misinformation and half truths on this BB, and from people who appear to know way too much. All this talk of honesty and integrity from people spewing out absolute nonsense. I have an idea, why don't the three Amigo's of Nick Trew, Scott Richardson Brown and Jennings have a crack and telling the WHOLE story so the investors on the BB have some chance of making a reasonable decision.
Not sure what you have to do to be liked or respected on tis BB but providing an honest view clearly isn't one of them. Some facts for you guys to chew on: Puphead - Mitsui did not invest a total of $700m on a thumb suck, but rather 18 months DD. $450m was for 15% of the coal asset, the balance for a share in the Nacala rail line etc. Total investment by Vale = $5b In any event, they have 1.5b to of "reserves" compared to BRH's 40t of "reserves". No point carrying on as pure and simple there is no comparison between the two - period Andy - no too shabby if you were right, but unfortunately you are not. BHR's "reserves" = 40mt. This translates into 23mt saleable reserves, of which about half is coking and half is thermal (read the announcement and SAMREC/JORC report). Profit on thermal = nil (in fact its loss making as there is NO domestic market of substance. Profit on coking coal = $10/t at best I mean at best but this is only post $20m expansion project, which to remind you has not happened. Lets ignore and pretend - so that is approx 700kt p.a. of saleable coking coal @ $10/t gross margin = $7m p.a. That is NOT EBITDA but gross. So profit (post interest, depreciation, etc.) p.a = SFA. Changara - its 10 x the size in land area not coal resource! They dropped 5 holes and hit sandstone NOT coal - read the announcement! Where the hell your numbers come from is beyond me, but it does provide the rationale for your views on value! Top10sxi - like I said, not trying to be a "deramper" for anything or anyone. In fact my only suggestion was the Rights Issue. I am merely sharing my thoughts - nothing more and nothing less. Goatmaster1 - if you a referring to me then "I wish"
The idea of placing a number on "coal in the ground" is no more than a thumb suck. I'm not saying its worth nothing but its value is a function of the economics of extracting it, transporting it and the revenue line. Obviously things like coking v thermal, open pit v underground, distance to port etc etc are all critically important. Simply taking the number of tonnes x by the revenue is nonsense. It is often used by analysts but that does not make it relevant.
Andy - (1) we agree that what was offered by BOD was rubbish and all they have done is destroy value and yes $80m was more than enough but that is past. (2) Moving forward what I was suggesting in terms of a Rights Issue would be conditional upon the current BOD taking an exit. (3) you guys need to move away from the idea that the balance sheet values the assets at $60m+ - its nonsense - (4) valuing coal in the ground is also nonsense. If all the PI's put up another 1m or so, you would own 99% (although 500k would still buy you 90% and BHR's destiny would be 100% in your hands. However, the reality is you need to settle the Con Note holders (around $15m I think) and Vitol (another $12m). Then in order to unlock the DFI proposed $20m in debt, you need another $15m in new equity. So lets say someone has $50m - that will leave $8m for the shareholders. Problem is, BHR is in default with Note Holders and in default with Vitol - who are fully secured. So the smart money will write Vitol a cheque for $12m and take 100% of the assets! So waiting for a fat cheque which leaves shareholders with some cash is praying for a hail mary. If instead you took control via a Rights Issue then you buy time. With time you may find a buyer and negotiate an outcome which will leave shareholders with something. For the BoD to knock back a Rights Issue at this juncture is borderline criminal and it will only serve to increase their risk of legal retribution. You must face the facts though that even after taking control - you have a monumental task ahead.
best chance you got smart ar#e - suggest a Rights Offering conditional upon RK and JFJ resigning. They would probably undertake it themselves save of the fact it would place absolute control in your hands and they know under that scenario they would be out of job. Anyway, I'm not interested in copping flak for sharing a view, particularly when I'm agreeing with the general sentiment. One thins is for sure, while you guys whine and complain, the BoD are doing whatever they can to find some cash, other than tapping the PI's. Why don't you offer it up and see what response you get?
Not asking any questions of you guys merely sharing a view. I agree whole heartedly that the BoD have acted in a manner which is reprehensible and deserves some serious retribution. They started out with good intentions (at least RK did) but in the end, have acted only in their own interests and only to ensure they could continue to be overpaid in an environment which warranted severe cost cutting. Clearly much of the cash has been pi$$ed up the wall - that much is obvious. However, no point in asking them any questions as if I'm correct in that Admin is inevitable, there is no point is asking them didly squat. There last act of giving away 12% of the company for 56k says it all! They have nothing to offer and the nature of their action unambiguous in their intent! I repeat, I'm no Justin, or RK or any other related party for that matter - sorry if my opinion (just an opinion) does not accord with others.
No I hold no shares simply been following the story for 24 months (as an industry participant), but never felt the need to make any comment. Things have changed to the extent that I don't see a way out for BHR plc and in reading the posts, I just thought I would share my views. The anger & frustration all perfectly understandable and justifiable and although I can't offer any shining light, it is the most realistic outcome...in my view. PS I'm certainly not Justin so save the conspiracy theories...I am not the enemy here.