RE: The down side risk24 Jan 2021 09:51
TDT
https://about.bnef.com/blog/battery-pack-prices-cited-below-100-kwh-for-the-first-time-in-2020-while-market-average-sits-at-137-kwh/
Hong Kong and London, December 16, 2020 – Lithium-ion battery pack prices, which were above $1,100 per kilowatt-hour in 2010, have fallen 89% in real terms to $137/kWh in 2020. By 2023, average prices will be close to $100/kWh, according to the latest forecast from research company BloombergNEF (BNEF).
For the first time, battery pack prices of less than $100/kWh have been reported. These were for batteries in e-buses in China. While these were the lowest reported price, the volume-weighted average price for e-buses in China was slightly higher, $105/kWh.
Battery electric vehicle (BEV) pack prices are $126/kWh on a volume-weighted average basis. At the cell level, average BEV prices were just $100/kWh. This indicates that on average, the battery pack portion of the total price accounts for 21%.
BNEF’s 2020 Battery Price Survey, which considers passenger EVs, e-buses, commercial EVs and stationary storage, predicts that by 2023 average pack prices will be $101/kWh. It is at around this price point that automakers should be able to produce and sell mass market EVs at the same price (and with the same margin) as comparable internal combustion vehicles in some markets. This assumes no subsidies are available, but actual pricing strategies will vary by automaker and geography.
Price reductions in 2020 are thanks to increasing order sizes, growth in BEV sales and the introduction of new pack designs. New cathode chemistries and falling manufacturing costs will drive prices down in the near term. The prices of cathode materials have fallen since reaching a high in spring 2018, finding a more stable level during 2020.
James Frith, BNEF’s head of energy storage research and lead author of the report, said: “It is a historic milestone to see pack prices of less than $100/kWh reported. Within just a few years we will see the average price in the industry pass this point. What’s more, our analysis shows that even if prices for raw materials were to return to the highs seen in 2018, it would only delay average prices reaching $100/kWh by two years – rather than completely derailing the industry. The industry is becoming increasingly resilient to changing raw material prices, with leading battery manufacturers moving up the value chain and investing in cathode production or even mines.”
Leading battery manufacturers are now enjoying gross margins of up to 20% and their plants are operating at utilization rates over 85%. Maintaining high utilization rates is key to reducing cell and pack prices. If utilization rates are low, then equipment and building depreciation costs are spread over fewer kilowatt-hours of manufactured cells.
Daixin Li, a senior energy storage associate at BNEF, added: “The increasingly diversified chemistries used in the market result in a wide range of prices. Battery man