hanghai-squeeze-revitalises-flagging-nickel-market14 Sep 2021 06:39
https://www.reuters.com/article/metals-nickel-ahome/rpt-column-shanghai-squeeze-revitalises-flagging-nickel-market-andy-home-idUSL1N2QB1AB?rpc=401&
Longiish read
Just an Excerpt
The fastest-growing imports, however, were those of nickel sulphate, which surged to 23,500 tonnes from just 2,700 tonnes in January-July 2020.
BULL SURPRISE
Nickel sulphate is used for battery manufacturing and if you were looking for evidence that electric vehicle battery demand is starting to gain physical traction in the nickel market, China’s mushrooming imports are a good starting point.
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The combination of this new demand driver with strength in the stainless steel sector, the metal’s traditional price driver, is why nickel is back punching out fresh multi-year highs.
Nickel’s resurgence seems to have blind-sided investors, many of whom left the market after Tsingshan’s disruptive announcement about a potential new processing route for battery-grade nickel.
But then, as Goldman Sachs points out, “the nickel market has seen the most significant tightening increment relative to initial expectations across all the industrial metals.” (“Metals Watch”, Aug. 30 2021)
The investment bank projected a 48,000-tonne global supply surplus for 2021 at the start of the year. It now forecasts a 72,000-tonne deficit thanks mostly to expanded demand expectations.
There is still plenty of uncertainty surrounding the Indonesian part of the supply picture. The country is both ramping up production and, with Tsingshan leading, trying to pivot from nickel-stainless to nickel-battery processing.
The market, however, has become overly fixated on this alchemical Rubik’s Cube of Indonesian nickel supply and forgotten about demand, particularly that from the stainless steel sector.
The nickel price, currently trading at $20,100 per tonne is a timely reminder.