Member Info for HawaiifiveO

Record Q3 gold production, the share price was above �5 when production in H1 was marginally lower. Now they have upgraded forecasts slightly Makes any purchase sub �5 look cheap in my view. Edison has a target price north of �9

Try this link http://www.commodity-tv.net/c/mid/5428/Company_Updates/?v=297850

Recent interview all positive (Sept 18th from Munich) Confirms production target, expects 55,000 oz. Expecting a reserve upgrade in October or November No issues with the new mine shaft, down below 850m, target 1000m No issue with local community or Gov http://www.commodity-tv.net/c/mid,5428,Company_Updates/?v=297850

It is interesting that SP Angel's Wednesday 20th morning briefing which covered Stratex has been removed from the Proactive Investors website. It was exceptionally critical about the deal. Now I wonder who asked to have that removed?

I have lodged my shares with the requisition, I would rather have 470m shares in issue and a prudent approach than a ludicrous 2.5 billion, no sane CEO does an all paper deal with his company's share price sitting near bottom of a 5 year range. That 2.5b is BEFORE even more dilution, the merger document suggests a capital raise for the newly merged company is expected, then there is the matter of raising another $100m. Existing equity will be wiped out under the Englebrecht proposals, no wonder he and two other directors (out of 5) hold NO SHARES in Stratex. The deal is woeful in my considered opinion, no wonder the powerful AngloGold Ashanti are against it.

Why should Stratex shareholders bear exorbitant cost of expensive Crusader acquisition? http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/columns/sp-angel/28628/today-s-market-view-altus-strategies-phoenix-global-mining-ltd-savannah-resources-plc-stratex-international-plc-28628.html

Probably just a few bored retail investors moving on, would not be surprised to see Alan Gray back in the market at these levels or the mysterious SPServices. The yield is approaching 5% with the dividend costing $3m, covered 5 times The recent Edison note had a target of £9.50p

New Edison note, very comprehensive, offers £9.50p target price http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/research/report/caledonia-mining225182/full#js

I expect the market is waiting to see the Q3 results, they need at least 14,000oz in the last two quarters to meet their target range. Clearly the rising gold price will help revenues, as each quarter passes we get closer to lower cap ex spend on the new mine shaft resulting in more free cash being available for dividend increases, that will drive the re-rating. I do wonder if CMCL might receive a takeover approach, the cash generation is excellent but the share price fails to appreciate, a perfect storm for a potential bidder.

I am in no doubt the a meeting has been requested by one or two of the major shareholders. I also believe they were probably behind the removal of Bob Foster. It could get interesting if these shareholders have a serious plan, bringing in an entirely new BOD with new ideas to deliver shareholder value. Last but not least there must still be £6m in the bank, Thani stake could be worth another £3m-£4m, that is over 2p a share right now. That cash balance might look rather juicy to a Co that already has a project ready to go. These shareholders need to gather support ASAP by means of an open letter or some other communication so other Stratex shareholders can make an opinion. I am rather surprised they have not lobbied support via social media etc, that does suggest it is a major player(s) in my view. It could get exciting

It is interesting that the Board see it fit to go through the shareholder register, lo and behold we find a non declared new 9% holder seemingly hiding behind a nominee account through a German bank Gray has been building his position also. CMCL seems significantly undervalued, the new shaft is closing in on completion which should result in a 50% uplift in production in a couple of years, never a better time for a takeover approach than now!!

In H2 to meet the target range of 52k-57k ounces they will need to deliver 27k to 32k ounces. They have via the recent podcast confirmed that a number of measures taken to improve production are delivering results and further confirmed that they expect to meet the production target. Good news! The gold price is now trending well above $1300oz verses the $1224 they received in H1. This rise in the gold price will significantly improve the financial performance in H2 as a result of increasing production and the lower AISC of $856oz My view is the gross profit will improve by at least $3m in H2 which, so far at least, has not been reflected in any material move in the share price.

The rise in the gold price will feed directly through to CMCL's bottom line, the Q2 results video is now on the website, clearly explained how recent measures are already enhancing production and reducing costs. I expect a strong Q3 performance. As ever no-one has latched onto CMCL yet but eventually the numbers will do the talking and I expect a strong re-rate.

I have a feeling that someone is trying to buy in some size here, under the radar, there is no stock to be had, even small sizes are 'at best' only. They are also bidding for stock in size. Basically the stock is illiquid, only 10m in issue across 3 exchanges, this should work to shareholders advantage in due course. I have seen stocks like this move 25p - 50p in a day on even modest demand. My target remains £8+ by years end. That target may sound fanciful right now, at some point the market will soon have to start factoring in reduced cap ex for the new mine shaft (completion due Q4 2018) leading to more free cash for distribution to shareholders.

Another very rosy interview, talks about 40% increase in gold production by end 2018, lower costs and returning even more cash to shareholders, current yield is 4.5% http://www.corelondon.tv/caledonias-first-day-trading-nyse/

Correction looks like it is 4.8p to be returned the RNS was in Euro's

Better than I had hoped 5.3p return to shareholders within 6 months, still seeking opportunities but only if they add more value. Theoretically the share price may bounce above cash given the possibility of a deal, who knows but 5.3p seems locked in. Not bad given a SP of 3.75p currently.

Eish I do not consider £7 to be an unreasonable shortish term target given the expected significant reduction in cap ex over the next 6-9 months. I have been adding to my position. The dividend currently costs $3m but, even now, they are throwing off $15-$18m in free cash, we know a fair proportion of this has been spent on the new mine shaft but this spend is coming to an end. Having attended 2 presentations, including speaking to a director personally, there is no doubt they intend to significantly increase the dividend, this in turn will deliver a re-rating. The BOD are incentivized by share price growth so they will do all it takes to get it moving up. As for the dividend, it is rather nice getting 4.5% yield & a payment every 3 months to boot!

If they offload the non cash generating business it will leave them as a shell company with a decent level of cash. I am hoping for them to inject a new business into the Co and return some cash. They are being extremely cagey with their market releases, they have not informed of the current cash position nor if they do have a plan other than returning cash to shareholders. I am hoping the reason for the above is due to the fact they are doing some deal in the background, no doubt we will get some idea by the market reaction after the AGM.

I noticed that the bid is quite strong currently, the MM'ers seem reluctant to show it though, currently £4.92p which would mean the mid price moving over £5 The significance of this is, I believe, once through £5 it will attract technical buyers, the last broker target was north of £7. Appreciate it is quiet here but anyone looking in may fancy the 4.5% very well covered dividend yield, I received a very nice quarterly payment 2 weeks ago. Can see the share price moving higher as time eats away the cap ex spend to pay for the new mine shaft, by now cap ex should be dropping off meaning even more free cash to pay an increased dividend into 2018 and beyond, the market is forward thinking remember.