Member Info for HawaiifiveO

I would like to know from the company if are they considering litigation as a route to recover value, they must have an exceptional chance of success.

A claim could amount to £50m+ given the damage caused to the company by the failure to receive permits in fair time.

This route HAS to be explored but NOTHING from the BOD since Hutchinson muttered something about possible legal action around 12 months ago.

I think shareholders need to ask this question imminently, the threat to withdraw the AIM listing smells like Carver, he is probably well ****ed off that the lucrative (to Henderson/Darwin/Primary Bid) funding route was cut off by shareholders at the AGM. Exacting revenge.

Another aspect, what makes AST so different from a junior mining exploration company for example, their assets take years to develop, the gas is there, as is a legal route, it will take time but why are people writing off this company entirely simply because the current BOD seem to be waiving the white flag?

If a new CEO and/or a new business plan (including litigation for say £50m+) was devised the company could quickly return to favour.

Seem to be the obvious candidate, but who knows.

Ascent surely have significant grounds for compensation through an arbitration process or the European Court, I think this will be an option that must be seriously considered, the IPCC was awarded so there must be some chance of success. £40m spent so far on the project.

No doubt there would be some Law firm that may take it on on a no win no fee basis given the prospective chances of success and monies involved.

Does anyone remember the company (Rockhopper)) that 1st RNS'd an oil discovery to shortly overturn it to water flows & latterly re-confirmed the oil discovery.

Investors made, lost and made fortunes on that series of updates.

Will the same pattern occur here I wonder?

I would draw everyone's attention to the current state of the AIM market and in particular to the junior resource sector, in my view XTR has suffered alongside many others in the last 3-4 months. Many stocks are over 50% down from recent highs.

For anyone unaware their has been a disclosure from NTOG, which has been retweeted by another AIM company, concerning market makers shorting junior companies.. How many people realise that the market makers can short up-to 10% of the issued capital without declaring. I bet there is a short position here.

I believe certain market entities have taken full advantage of the low volume summer period, lack of liquidity due to £500m of cash/assets being locked up with Beaufort + the recent increase in margin requirements from 25% to 40%, all this is a recipe for markdowns. This has happened.

The good news is the Beaufort situation is likely to unwind in September and margin issues will have gone away, normal market trading will resume.

I attended the AGM and spoke to Bird at the UKIS in April, he has made a number of suggestions and forward looking statements. I believe he is genuinely working to try to deliver shareholder value.

I think the next news will be integral, I remain supportive, Bird is on record now and has to deliver. I think he will.

In the meantime I think the current share price represents an opportunity.

The naysayers are making hay here whilst the market is in summer doldrums.

AIM has been hit hard by a number of factors outside of the control of companies. During this period the market makers have taken full advantage by marking down many stocks by as much as 60%. XTR falls into this category, as does many other 'popular' stocks such as URU - TYM - THR etc etc.

The main reason the market has been slow in Q1 & Q2 is due to lack of liquidity mainly due to the Beaufort situation where at least £500m of private investor cash/stocks has been frozen.

The next, more recent, reason has been due to margin changes where speculators need to put up more cash or sell down positions, once gain the market makers have lowered stock prices to take account of potential forced selling down of positions.

The good news is that it looks like the Beaufort cash will be coming back in September and the margin situation will have gone away.

I have been buying/adding to bombed out stocks expecting a strong re-rate. I know of a couple of CEO's who will not deliver any news until after the summer sabbatical.

I think XTR will re-rate ahead of much expected news, the market makers will slowly take back up the stocks that have been marked down.

In my view never a better time to take a position here ahead of a plethora of news.

Perhaps Louis may soon be moving into the fast food business.

No comment!

https://www.share-talk.com/share-news/boss-of-collapsed-beaufort-securities-plots-move-into-takeaway-industry/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=SocialWarfare

thecoyone 27 Jul '18 - 18:44 - 2192 of 2192

My last post was met with some derision from certain quarters but can anyone honestly say such a lengthy period of large sized dumping of stock is normal, the selling looks professional by its scale, designed for a purpose.

I maintain that the BOD are aware who the seller is and probably their purpose, if not it is a dereliction of duty. I re-iterate my view that a low ball takeover approach will be made, possibly in the very near future.

This has the look of what happened at Mariana Resources, a period of lengthy share price suppression undertaken by various market entities, a low ball bid was tabled ably supported by management.

The bidder (Sandstone) was a 7% holder in MARL, interestingly the BOD concluded the deal was a good one basing it on VWAP performance over 20 days, no reference was made concerning the apparent share price suppression over months leading up to the offer.

Management silence at HZM on the topic is also a clue, it makes the broker look stupid with near term targets of 15p-22p.

Whilst I doubt a bid of 8p-9p would be acceptable they may recommend something just above it stating project funding issues or some other 'excuse'

We will see.

I recall in historic interviews the litigation route was mentioned by Ascent management.

If the Slovenian authorities fail to award the IPCC after having initially awarded it and then follow this up with failure to allow permits to re-work wells, Ascent surely have a very good case to claim compensation which could amount to circa £35m-£40m

Obviously one hopes for a satisfactory outcome but where else in Europe is such bureaucracy hindering the attempts of an energy company to provide much needed gas to a host country. Slovenia is a member of the European Union and would have to abide by any court ruling.

Colin Hutchinson has it on record that the IPCC has taken 4 years so far, this is clearly not a normal situation. There is even a case to claim damages right now in fact, I suspect some companies may have taken such action already.

I would not rule anything out at this point, we must be very close to some announcement, this cannot linger on and on, the SR was announced on 17th April, we were promised updates, these have not come.

For clarity Xtract loaned Moz Gold £300k but now own plant worth £800,000

The FACT is that whatever Auroch paid for Manica they spent around £4m on it by way of drilling campaigns and studies. They ran into financial difficulty and needed to sell the asset, it was a distressed sale.

I very much doubt anyone on this bulletin board has actually read their ASX news releases concerning Manica but they were very upbeat. Xtract picked up a bargain in my opinion.

News must be imminent.

I suppose if they announced they were in discussions with a potential JV partner the shares would fly AKA Greatland Gold.

With the likes of Paul Johnson & Co here I would rule nothing out by way of promotion, with the share price near 12 month lows it might be worth a punt.

At the AGM one shareholder pointed out that XTR seemed to be giving away too much by way of percentage to the alluvial contractors. The reply from Colin Bird was along the lines that this will/could change in the future. The plant acquired from Moz Gold could be leased or used as a bargaining chip to improve terms.

In general the 1700oz of gold delivered in Q2 by Sino is more in line with what I expected, it could still be improved and would not rule out 2000oz in Q3.

The key is getting another contractor that can deliver and ultimately attain the same kind of revenues as Sino but on better terms for XTR.

It is clear the alluvials could deliver free cash IRO $1m to $1.5m if the terms of the next deal are better and Sino continue to improve production. That is clearly the plan, it just needs to be executed.

News is key to return value, the drop from 2.6p has been on low volume, if Colin BIrd delivers what he has consistently implied via podcasts/shows/AGM then volume will bounce up as will the share price.

More news is imminent.

Unfortunately this is the 3rd death at Blanket mine within 12 months condolences to the family of the deceased.

I have decided to move on, banking a 30% gain, notwithstanding the excellent forward plan.

I have been attracted to gold producer AAZ (Anglo Asian Mining) They will shortly be joining the dividend list, at current levels of 41p should yield IRO 5% but have a far more short term progressive dividend policy.

The recent broker note offers a target of 72p but this is conservative, it is expected to be revised again dependent on a likely reserve upgrade. My view is £1 target is not unrealistic, the shares are far more liquid and IMO will over a larger gain near term.

DYOR

Do you think the Slovenian authorities would mess around the likes of Gazprom like they are with Ascent, no chance.

This project needs to be acquired by a company with experience and cloat, not by an accountant and a City bod like Carver.

I hope therefore someone in the data room has that criteria, even if a low-ball offer came in (2p-2.2p) I think most holders would be fully satisfied. It may even be beneficial to accept another company's 'paper' instead of cash dependent who that paper belonged too.

The SR has to end soon, it is farcical to have it running for infinitum, now approaching 3 months. The share price is what it is until it ends.

Hard to say who to believe the Company or The Times.

The RNS can be read positively or negatively full of caveats.

I would have thought the Nomad would ensure accuracy however.

I would like to know who is paying for all this 'due diligence' + costs of advisers, I suppose the saving grace for the minnow shareholders is that the majority of ZMNO stock is held by larger players, they usually look after No1

the_sage19 Jul '18 - 19:34 - 624 of 625
0 0 0
That is a fudge of an update if ever I have seen one, interestingly they have not provided a timeline for another update. This could rumble on for an age, all the time shareholder cash is being eaten up by BOD and city cronies.

Typically there are now reports that the the advisors to the house builder may prefer to list it separately and not via the ZMNO cash shell, of course these advisors will make more money that route.

Can see what is coming here, the deal will not proceed and by the time the next to useless ZMNO BOD update cash will have dropped from around 4.4p a share to around 3p a share.

Let us prey the RTO concludes but the signs look ominous.

It's all a bit confusing, the The Times said yesterday the reverse takeover with the house builder is on hold yet tonight Zamano say...........

Parties remain in on-going negotiations
Preparation of the necessary transaction documentation is well advanced.
Detailed discussions regarding the terms of the Potential Transaction have taken place

But add.......

It should be noted that there can be no certainty that zamano and the Target will reach agreement on final terms which would be acceptable to the Parties, or that the Potential Transaction can be concluded.

All the time this goes on Zamano cash is being eaten up leaving less available for distribution should the RTO not proceed. It would have been 4.25p a share.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/zamano-plc--zmno-/rns/potential-reverse-take-over-transaction-update/201807091640490697U/

thecoyone8 Jul '18 - 20:33 - 323 of 324

Manica Fairbride worth a conservative 4.4p - 6.5p per XTR share NOW

You are quite correct concerning the increase in the NPV it could be, and most likely will be, IRO $62m if Colin Bird can save that $20m he implied. I did suggest my heavily discounted 4.4p 'target' for Fairbride was conservative.

I have adjusted my target range to account for the extra $10m saving. You can see why the current share price is bordering on ridiculous.

As a matter of interest, when Auroch owned the project their PEA offered an initial capex of $28m preferring to add the underground element of $14.8m later.

HTTP://clients3.weblink.com.au/pdf/AOU/01632467.pdf

There are many options ahead for Xtract, my guess is shareholders would want to go for the low hanging fruit offering immediate and pretty substantial low cost gold production in the 1st 4 years. Colin Bird wants to construct the mine for the full 7-8 years, but is he bluffing?

Make no mistake, I tell you this, Xtract is worth far far more than the current £3.5m enterprise value.

I am still in the market for stock BTW.

Give the man some time, he has been firefighting after the Jan Nelson regime, now stable this company can grow, no debt + decent cash in bank position of over £1m.

I have been reading past Auroch RNS updates (they sold Manica Fairbride to XTR for $12m) they were exceptionally upbeat on this project but were desperate for cash at the time.

My guess is we will hear news shortly of the project way forward, any reasonable deal and the shares will fly from current levels IMO.

Post from A@VFN

thecoyone5 Jul '18 - 22:41 - 316 of 317

Fairbride project worth 4.4p per Xtract share right now

The more I research this company the more I believe it will hit £20m+ market value, possibly by year end.

Let us look at the Manica Gold Project - Fairbride.

Reports coming from a recent public meeting the Executive Chairman suggested it was possible to reduce the Cap Ex at Fairbride by $20m to only $25m. Good news indeed!

This is a near 50% reduction, has the market taken account of this possibility - NO!

It looks likely Xtract will shortly announce a deal with Omnia Mining who are a well established operator in the area, Xtract seemingly using their plant hence this massive capital saving.

The current NPV of this project is $42m but the implied saving of $20m will enhance this significantly, let us conservatively say NPV increases to $52m.

If one discounts that NPV of $52m (as one should at this stage of the process) by 60% you have circa $21m (£15.5m) or 4.4p a share.

Fairbride is just one revenue stream Xtract has !

The shares will continue to re-rate, undervalued and currently under the radar.

There is some considerable upside from current levels, just look at the Fairbride gold mine situation, if they can knock of $20m from the implied $45m, as Colin Bird suggested at the AGM, it will significantly increase the NPV of the project from the already stated $43m

The market simply does not know about this possibility because it was only stated at the AGM and not via official RNS. I think CB may have let a little too much out of the bag in this respect, surely that is a price sensitive comment.

He said Omnia have nearby plant and that plant would be the most expensive item for XTR to acquire at Fairbride it would make sense to use their plant albeit needing some adaptions than for Xtract to buy and install their own hence the monetary saving, I expect some deal is being thrashed out currently.

In my view the market currently places no value on the Fairbride project and hardly any value on the alluvial income.

In my considered opinion the company should be valued north of £10m (2.85p a share) on Fairbride alone, the current EV of XTR is only £3m

No wonder people are buying in at these current and artificial (IMO) low levels.