RE: Tilbern16 Aug 2024 22:46
Down memory lane, one of Tiburns from 19 Oct 2023, he is still about, just a name typo...
The last sentence is very poignant "fully funded into Q1 is the first foundation stone". If only that stone had been laid, instead of us getting some cowboy builders in to do the job...
And I quote:
Simply, because nothing is proven 100% yet, my post Oct 9th:
There is no specific timeframe set on when this company will come good.
As posted many times , three factors need to be 100% proven and delivered before this can move forward to a solid base, but when they do, those that made money on the crash will then make money on the rise - as its then expedient for them to do so.
PI then finally get a return if patience has been observed and - despite all - kept their shares.
1 - Production rising to breakeven and then into profit
Been waiting since 2021 for this, rocky road, but now the GGS is installed, MF can continue at double previous rates and prod can finally rise safely - we shall see when they reach the 2000 bpd, but WTI rise and hedge removal are substantial benefits to achieve cash flow positive with lower prod.
2 - Debt management
With prod rising into profit and growing (its not capped at 2000 bpd for 2024, thats just Cowan being conservative - they will see and update in time what GGS can deliver - then it opens the door to RBL for reasons outlined previously. RBL can then retire SL debt, perhaps some Bonds - we shall see. AM claimed a $60m target previously for this facility which is probably reasonable given the enhanced reserves leverage from CC following recompletions, plus BFU - any discovery drills completed add to this leverage.
SL should be around c $34m by now. They would need cash for field work, but SL debt is a drag anchor that RBL would remove, allow investment in the BFU and critically - fund COPL America - their strategic priority as stated in RNS:
"providing focus on the key strategic priority of increasing oil production to allow COPL America to become fully funded through 2024."
3 - Joint Venture
Illusive but pivotal - a year since the JVP approached COPL to discuss a JV - following which much analysis has increased their confidence of the resource, RS validation and the LOI. When JV occurs who knows, but it looks to be coming.
These 3 factors are not yet achieved so the share gets manipulated by every trick in the book, assisted by poor company comms and positioning - but soon these three factors will materialise and the mcap can rise with a solid base created - fully funded into Q1 is the first foundation stone.