The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Nice to meet you y11. Have we met before? Very possible so I'm guessing you have been hiding and today you got a 'pass' and came out of the 'bat cave' to use a computer. Wow. Lucky you.
Anyway, not sure why you needed to be a Dumb Muppet today, and so close to Xmas, but never mind you got your two tuppence in.
Just a question. What about my early musings upset you so. My worldly topics and views on HBR or the fact I got Thursday confused with Friday. Easily done given time difference in this part of the world.
Anyway, you have a lovely day and if possible do grow up a bit ok. Serious stuff this investing.
HC
Obviously old age catching up. Today is Friday not Thursday need check my calendar more often.
On the basis that its Friday could be a tough day. Asia continues to fall as I write. Oil dropping srill but Gold holding gains.
On the theory that MM's will want their money 'off the table' over the weekend hard to see much upside for the FTSE other than maybe the banking sector with upped interest rates.
Covid Omnicron now a factor in this part of the world so new mask mandates in play. Yet another spoilt Xmas and New Year.
Anyway, thank you China for lumbering the world with this nonsense and 4sure your winter Olympics will be a huge flop but good super spreader event if you force the population to attend.
All theory. Have a nice day and don't read if it offends.
HC
Nice surprise and HBR did well yesterday as did most petro's. Will it last. No idea but my guess will retrace till Friday.
BOE raised rates that helped the likes of banks, etc, and that should continue but again holiday break will take money off the table. Markets remain volitile with Omnicron now running rampant.
As I write Asia down as was the US just a bit. Oil price down but Gold up. $ solid and £ doing well. Crypto falls continue still very high risk. Gas prices will continue to sky rocket and the German/Russis spat on NS gas lines will worsen 4sure.
Today for the markets, and HBR. Banks should again do well as will other solid based shares. Speculative shares like HBR could retrace but really no idea, 50/50 call. For me far too risky and any dead cat bounce should be viewed as a selling opportunity.
All theory and all have a lovely day. For those that hate my early morning musings. Don't read em. Simple.
HC
Conditional Placing to raise a minimum of £19.5 million at the Issue Price of 12p. Indication from two of the Company's largest shareholders, Bayford & Co Ltd and Harwood Capital LLP, that they intend to, at minimum, stand their corner in the Fundraising and are prepared to commit up to an aggregate of £18.5 million
Just read the full Open Offer deal that looks to get over any past agreements on Bayford and Harwood not making a hostile bid. Actually if they 'stand their corner', pretty pathetic wording, they will spend a minimum of 18.5m. If you take out the book building costs it just means they will buy the lot.
As for the Open Offer to raise gross proceeds of up to an additional £6.0 million at the Issue price of 12p. This is supposedly meant to attract existing investors. Not much point my guess is 12p will be the market price if not lower. Stand by my 10p.
Crooks is being kind to this gang but it does explain why the SP has been driven down over recent months. If your gonna buy a company then make sure you buy it on the cheap.
Normally I'm all theory but on this one its clearly just a very well planned way to screw investors. Will it work. I think so because these parasites can now dictate policy and my guess is de-list the company if they get enough votes.
HC
So now we know they need money so the begging bowl is out. At 12p hardly reassuring stuff. Once again shareholders are getting what appears to be a good shafting. Obviously FCF and the money they had in the bank has somehow vanished or is this in the unknown 'contingencies' of the Accounts.
Hard to now believe much of what this outfit says but do spare a thought for Board Members who brought shares at 3 x the offer price.
All smoke and mirrors and its been my experience that this happens a lot with Aim companies.
Anyway my historic stop of 10p on this crap wasn't that far off.
HC
HBR again on the slide. 4sure two downgrades didn't help but do highlight the negatives by analysts on last weeks update.
Others have noted that Debt is a eeal issue, and why declare a divi at all, just deal with debt first. Fair comments but the divi statement was good old 'smoke and mirrors' and was meant to be the 'carrot' to make the bad news on Tolmont and changed end Debt dates no 'big deal'. Mistake. These things are a 'big deal' and even the so called analysts got caught 'flat footed'. Now they, like most of us, will mistrust this HBR Board. Rightly so.
Moving on to Thursday. At the time of writing Asia up other than HK. US also did well. Oil on the up as well as Gold. USD still safe haven. Cryptos nervous but still small gains with China saying will back its own crypto currency. This could doom existing crypto's in the future if all countries do the same.
Fed was pretty bland with big cutback in stimulus doubled for 2022 to end in March. Interest rates flagged to rise in early 2022. Inflation running rampant so those working will want pay rises, more inflation.
Today for FTSE. If it follows world markets it should rise but new Omnicron lockdowns altering sentiment but I think will rise until US market opens. Then a 50/50 bet.
Will HBR have another dead cat bounce. Again, just a 50/50 call. Oil/gas price rises may help but now 350p is out there on HBR I see possible more bad days between now and the New Year. Risk/reward is to the downside.
Just a simple question. Why buy HBR at 342p when you can buy BP at 320p with BP risk/reward to the upside.
MM's remain negative on HBR and most will want their money 'off the table' over the holiday period so difficult to see gains for HBR without good RNS. Bottom for HBR. No idea but 300p+ or - could happen sooner rather than later.
All theory of course. All have a nice day and those that hate my early morning musings. Don't read em. Simple.
HC
Well HBR held onto gains on Tuesday. Will it continue or is it another 'false dawn'.
At time of writing. US and Asia markets dropped. Oil price down as is Gold. US $ holding strong. Crypto's having a bit of a rally but hard to think this will continue given risk/reward to the downside.
Today for HBR. No idea but I think wise to sell into any furrher dead cat bounce because risk/reward is still negative.
Fed decisions or guidance should come today. Week is a long time with this Omnicron issue a big concern so the Fed's attitude may have changed to facilitate this problem. Inflation above 6% in the US is a big factor 4sure.
All have a lovely day and for those that hate my early morning musings. Don't read em. Simple
HC
Laidback you really are the dumbest Muppet
Oh how I wish I got paid to write to you. But never mind it gives me something to do in the early hours in this far flung part of the world. Anyway, I'm a bit confused. What price are you targeting for HBR as you've gone from 400p to 625p this morning. Big difference but with only 7 shares its not really that much money I suppose.
Do me a favour. If your going to try and do this banter can you at least try and make it a bit original and make me laugh.
As always have a nice day. Thanks.
HC
Well well, its good old laidback coming out of his under the stairs broom cupboard so early in the morning. I'm so flattered that you continue to read my early morning musings. Bet you just can't wait to wake up to see what I'm writing .
Anyway, I'm just happy to see your still hanging around with HBR but a bit sad your still acting like a Muppet. Nah, only joking, its ok you carry on.
HC
Tough Monday for markets in the UK.
Anyway, will Tuesday improve. At time of writing Asia down as was the US.
Covid Omnicron now the dominant fear factor with lockdowns and pretty dire warning from Boris but most contries now on 'red alert' and conflicting views on efficy of present vaccines. Outcome, yet another bad Xmas and New Year
Oil down and Crypto crash continues. Gold holding steady and $ doing well given both safe havens.
Fed statement closely watched so could be a tough Tuesday.
Putin upping the anti on Ukraine. One to watch.
Today for HBR. No dead cat bounce as yet and sentiment clearly remains bad. New bottom. No idea but hard to see upside today if the FTSE struggles. Without good news from the Board, or better guidance on Tolmont the risk/reward continues to the downside.
Someone wrote a good post on petro's now being the new big tobaco. Fair point both are dying dinosoars.
All theory and all have a nice day. Those that hate my early morning musings. Don't read em.
HC
No Fear
Like I said I don't have a crystal ball and my dead cat bounce theory is just a guess given as you say all indicators are pointing to the FTSE doing well on Monday. Will HBR track any gains, no idea, but other petro's will I think do well on the oil price rise.
On Tolmont reserves. Ok, I agree that 50% is the worst case scenario but that number is out there and its this I think that has upset the MM's so much. Sentiment is everything and I really have no idea where the HBR SP is going but risk/reward looks to the downside. To correct this sentiment issue this Board needs to do something. Put out a positive RNS or buy a lot of shares themselves.
Anyway lets hope for a better Monday and you get some sleep. Have a nice day.
HC
Blimey No Fear your posting in the early hours, do you sleep. Here its kinda 9ish.
A question. You posted, I think, a JP Morgan upgrade on oil futures with guidance on some petro companies. Did they mention HBR?
Just a question ok not having a go. Thanks.
HC
At the time of writing Asian markets mixed bag with HK again on the slide on China control worries.
Oil price still on the up and Cryptos seeing small gains but still high risk to the downside. Gold doing little but good hedge against high inflation. Bond markets still mixed with ECB to follow US and others reducing stimulus on the buy side. Interest rate rises now pegged for early 2022 but no surprise if Dec see's interest rate action.
World events that could affect the markets. Russian build up on Ukrain border continues so now its when not if they will try to annexe what they think is part of Russia. Direct action by Nato and US may be stalled using instead economic embargos across the board on Russia. Big worry is Europe dependence on Russian gas through the winter with new German chancellor making threats in his first days in office. Similar scenario with Xi and China with Taiwan. Action by any of these two super powers will rile the markets.
China property bubble now imploding. Evengrande basically will default and reform itself bit like US Chapter 11 which leaves lenders arriving with begging bowls and getting 2 cents on the $. Most foreign debt/bonds will be worthless with Prime Lenders scrambling to get something whilst throwing everyone else under the bus.
Covid Omnicron or Delta surging across the world with some places like France and HK as well as the African continent off limits and all on Red Lists for travel. Will it improve. My guess is no but I'm not a scientist.
Today for HBR. Hard to see upside given sentiment is blown after last weeks disaster of an update. Big issue on reading posts is debt and Capex. A one year delay on debt costs 50m maybe. Capex is unknown and Tolmont could eat FCF given there is no difinative guidance on when it will produce just the bad news that the reserves could be 50% less than anticipated. Hence ROC numbers are busted.
All theory of course and we may see a dead cat bounce. I see some are saying their averaging down on what they see as a cheap buying price at 350p+. The old adage 'dont catch a falling knife' may apply here so caution is needed. I don't have a crystal ball and now have no idea what the 'bottom' is for HBR but risk/reward is spiralling down. Only plus is a declared Divi but pointless really if the SP loses another 20%.
All have a nice day and those that hate my early morning musings. Don't read em.
HC
Oh wow, it continues has no one anything better to do on a Saturday.
Now the Dumb Muppet Luck Counts tells us all he knew all about 'sanctioned' as it related to Tolmont and because I didn't know I have a low IQ and a lack of knowledge of the English language. I'm also a nincompoop. Like to say my kids say this word but even they would be shy to say such childish prattle.
Anyway Muppet, let me give you another similar word to 'sanctioned'. The word is 'sectioned'. I assume your expanded English intellect knows what this word can mean. It can mean people arriving at your moms house dressed in white suits to drag your sorry Muppet ass out of the broom cupboard you dwell in and take you away and put you in a room that has white walls with padding. It may be that your acquainted with this type of abode but these places are best avoided so keep taking your meds, ok.
You have a lovely weekend and a Happy Xmas and New Year.
HC
Oh dear Baccs you continue with the Dumb Muppet routine.
You just can't help yourself can you with this nonsense crusade that your the 'top gun'. Nope, you ain't, but do continue.
You told me and everyone else that you 'made loads of money' from HBR which is clearly untrue unless your a savvy day trader and sadly you ain't that. Your maths don't add up dude and I know your in a 'hole' with HBR the same as Darkside so man up and admit it, I do, so why oh why is it so difficult for you.
I know your not very sharp but go backwards ok. I said I would only buy HBR in my lowball range of 250p to 270p and that only on good news or RNS. We've just had a dire update so even my very lowball buy in range is now off the table. My upgrade to 'hold' was prior the update on the basis that good news was a cummin, sadly it didn't come so now I'm at 'sell'. Right or wrong that's my opinion and the last two days of trading suggest MM's share this view. You actually don't have a view, what you have is your head stuck up your ass.
On one thing your correct. I lost money on PMO. How do you know this. Because you dummy I told you lots and lots of times or is your peanut of a brain unable to store information.
Anyway, you enjoy your Alpine skiing and avoid Omnicron planes and trains and have a Merry Xmas and a Happy New Year. And as they say 'break a leg'.
HC
Miles
Thanks for the explanation on sanctioned, I really did not know it meant 'approval' as it sounds ominous.
As for the nonsense with other posters. I do take your point and the loss over 2 days was brutal enough without all of this bickering but my initial post early kinda just expressed my views that neither looked to ramp or de-ramp HBR just stated the obvious facts on what was a disastrous update. My view that I see HBR now as a 'sell' I've explained and again we all have opinions, right or wrong.
I have offered a kind hand to this merry gang of Muppets to 'pack it in' but unfortunately it falls on deaf ears as you can see from Baccs latest nonsense. I would like to just ignore these Muppets but I'm afraid my character will not allow it.
Anyway, lets hope Monday is better for HBR and the FTSE and you have a Merry Xmas and a Happy New Year.
HC
Well I give up. I offered certain posters the hand of kindness but this turnip, LuckCounts, came crawling from under a slimy stone to once again berate my comments that I actually thought were pretty balanced given the brutal last two days of HBR SP getting demolished.
Anyway, clearly this turnip wishes to continue to debate with me in a nasty manner so I will happily play the game. Lets understand the rules first. Personal stuff should be off limits so 'detest' is a bit OTT but never mind we can live with that.
Not sure I ever said I was an 'investing guru', but others, like yourself, profess to be far cleverer than mere mortals such as I.
Why is your tag Luck Counts. Do I assume you invest based on you having good luck. Nahhh, investing using this method will not work. Dude, you really need to understand the company your investing in, you know 'risk/reward' stuff.
Moving on. I never said HBR was PMO their just similar 'animals' with the same game plan of 'smoke and mirrors' that has been shown by this weeks awful update. I know because I've been invested in PMO for years, to my cost, and now I'm lumbered with HBR because they stole 95% of my PMO holding in a 'reverse takeover' which was done for the benefit of lenders, et al.
So now we move into your comments, I quote:
"HBR is a huge buy at these levels" and "it is severely undervalued compared to similar firms and a value". and "HBR will move with the vagaries of oil price".
Can I ask you a personal question. Do you take drugs, because clearly your brain is 'fuddled' and unable to understand what exactly happened in the 'update' this week. Did you grasp that Tolmont is possibly just a big Capex liability. Did you grasp that a part of Tolmont is 'sanctioned'. Did you grasp the true cost of the debt reduction delay. Did you grasp the cost of abandoning far flung investments. Did you grasp the forward Capex numbers that were just 'smoke and mirrors'. Did you grasp the vagaries of oil/gas production in the Shetlands/North Sea with the like of Shell and Cambo now abandoning 'fields' given the over regulation that impact costs. Did you grasp the reduced production levels with numbers that can be lowered at a whim by this Board. Did you grasp, or in fact believe, that Tolmont will be producing in January. My guess to all of these questions is no you did not grasp any of it. Full stop.
The Divi 'carrot' that is $200m not £200m. Pointless really if the SP continues to tank. FCF was disappointing and will likely be hammered year on year by the unknown Capex.
For these reasons I reduced my upped opinion from 'hold' to 'sell'. Why. Simple. Before the update HBR risk/reward was to the downside when compared to other petro's. After this update the risk/reward has dropped significantly. There is no good reason to invest in HBR when compared to other petro's. This Board will 'shock' us stupid investors again in the future, 100%.
Have a nice weekend but do take your head o