Episode 14 has dropped: Investing Matters Podcast, Tim Rogers, the former CEO of AB Dynamics. Listen here.
Well Happy New Year all.
Looks like Thursday will be tough on the FTSE. As I write Asia down badly following US falls and tech sell off. Oil down as is Gold. Crypto's getting hammered. Currencies mixed with the Fed spooking the markets with hawkish stance and guidance suggesting rate rises will happen pretty quickly with yields indicating the same.
Big stock rotation from overly valued stocks into more stable cheap stocks. Big tech taking a big hit whilst energy, banks, etc, gaining the upside.
Evergrande still trying to stall its implosion by making deferred bond payment promises but if they do go bust it will impact the Chinese markets significantly.
Omnicron is still the latest scourge to our lives. This part of the world seeing big surges with potentially long term economic meltdown. Lockdowns inevitable following China's lead that if you get one or two cases you lock down millions.
Today for HBR. With oil down and the FTSE expected to drop 1%+ its hard to see HBR not suffering the same fate. Still rangebound and way below old money 20p. Divi helps but hardly attractive investment when compared to other petro's like BP et al.
For those that hate, or simply do not understand, my early morning musings then don't read em. Simple.
All have a nice day.
Well laidback what a surprise. I was so glad to see that even on New Years Eve your still by far the Dumbest Muppet out there. You must live a very sad turd of a life if all you have to do is read my musings that upset you so. That said, I do appreciate you taking to time to read my musings. I also understand that my comments over recent months have hurt you deeply and deflated your ego but I'm afraid your lies about your investment in HBR needed exposing. If not exposed its clear that you would continue to push HBR as the best investment of the decade. It isn't, and your dumb turnip of a brain has no grasp of risk/reward when it comes to understanding the basic principles of investing to hopefully make a profit.
Anyway, let me wish you a Very Happy New Year. I do hope that in 2022 you will become a better person and stop throwing your toys out of the pram every time others express balanced, and possibly informative, comments. May I suggest you ask a friend, or Carer, to buy you a couple of Investment Strategy books to read. Sadly, the Fantasy Comics you now read will not help you to make profitable investment decisions.
Hi everyone and Happy New Year.
Had a change of holiday after cruise was cancelled but ok tried skiing which was difficult and cold.
Missed all the action over recent days but see HBR still rangebound at 350p which is 17.5p old money so still in negative terms post consolidation. Will it improve today. No idea but early market close could see most stocks to the downside.
Read that HBR capped off a NS wellhead and will assess viability. Talking to a few guys in this part of the world suggest if its capped as HBR announced its unlikely to be viable. I'm told they should normally know quality/ratio/return on drilled cores virtually on a daily basis and announce good or bad well' before deciding to cap off. Anyway, my knowledge on this is limited but I'm sure others will express their views. This aside, the big issue for HBR in early 2022, and throughout 2022, will be Tolmont. I like others think its unlikely to be online in January. If and when it is online pumped volumes will be the significant factor. Will it be viable and actually make money set against Capex. If it fails to come online say by March then my guess is it will be mothballed. Again, only my opinion and I'm sure others have differing views.
Moving on. As I write, late in the day for me, Asia mixed but HK doing well, US was down across the board. Oil down a bit with Gold up a tad, Gas still recovering. $ still ok as is the £. Crypto's making a New Year push to get back losses but correction likely to the downside. FTSE 100 and 250 down as expected.
All have a Happy New Year and lets hope 2022 is a better year.
Hard to know where this SP is going but a 7++ million sell on 23rd is a worry 4sure. Question. Is it a sell or a buy as LSE is often wrong on both sides of the trade. Have until 30th to take up options. Seems little point given SP is 12p+ or -.
Be a short trading day so could be money off the table over a long holiday given risk/reward is negative with Omnicron.
As I write Asia is mixed and going nowhere and US ended up. Oil down as is Gold. Gas dropped a bit. Cryptos bounced but BOE says zero value but many made a lot of money but still ultra high risk but Musk again promoting crypto. $ weak but £ doing better.
Omnicron still dominates and post holidays could be brutal if we get huge surges. Good news is another tablet for Covid got FDA approval so at least big pharma will continue to make huge profits of people getting sick.
Russia has still not invaded Ukrain and China playing 'long game' for now with Taiwan. NATO and USA on high alert but guess China will want to get the Olympics finished first and Putin is going so would not look good if their both firing off non nuclear missiles at Taiwan or the Ukrain. Kinda ruin the Olympic ideal.
Today for the FTSE. Again, think a drop is likely if only for the fact traders are nervous and don't want to be exposed over the holiday period.
HBR today. No real idea but my guess is more downside as still a very speculative buy at best. Risk/reward very negative for me, others will disagree.
Tolmont remains a drag and I read some optimism that it may come online in January. My view is wait and see given we've heard this same story month on month for 2021. Even if Tolmont goe's online in early 2022 will it produce oil/gas at a profit. All guesswork at present.
I also read some theories that HBR may again merge with another minor petro'. Possible I suppose and would allow the HBR Board to dilute HBR shareholders as happened when they robbed PMO shareholders. HBR have large legacy tax benefits from PMO so doing this 'smoke and mirrors' trick again could have benefits for everyone, say lenders et al, but not existing HBR shareholders and may explain the institution overhang that may get 'dumped'. If this happens what SP for HBR.
All theory of course and to those that hate my early morning musings. Don't read em. Simple.
All have a lovely Xmas Eve and a very Happy Christmas.
Hello laidback me old Muppet. I missed you and here's me thinking you'd hopped it and gone Xmas shopping and wasn't gonna say Happy Xmas. Come on dude get with the Xmas spirit and you might just get lucky and get some new adult pampers in your Xmas stocking.
You have a lovely day and a Happy Xmas. Oh, and do try and grow up just a little bit in 2022.
Good to see HBR hanging in there in the 350p range which is 17.5p old money so still backwards since the PMO robbery took place. So what next for HBR and the markets.
As I write Asia up and US rose. Oil and Gold up and gas nearing all time highs. Crypto's under the cosh with a Russia ban to play out given a lot of Bitcoin 'miners' operate in that part of the world because lots of cheap hydro power. Who will be next to ban crypto's outright? $ doing well and £ bounced.
World events. Nato on high alert with Russia looking to make a move on Ukrain. China locking down provinces with high Covid numbers so thats the Winter .Olympics possibly cancelled. Omnicron making it a very unhappy Xmas for most of the world and post Xmas, and New Year, we will see new Covid surges. New Covid tablet gets FDC approval. Travel bans extended so hol's in sunnier places now off the menu so Blackpool in the snow is beckoning.
Today for HBR and the FTSE..50/50 call for the FTSE but I think the holiday will take money off the table by early close on Friday. HBR. No idea but still see downside on risk/reward without some positive RNS or even Board members buying shares might help.
All have a lovely day and a Merry Xmas. Those that hate my early morning musings. Don't read em. Simple.
Oh dear Laidback.
Is that really the best you have. C'mon Dude grow a pair and debate, its ok, just you keep being a nasty Muppet for no good reason.
You know envy and jealousy go hand in hand. You appear to suffer from both.
Anyway, you just have a lovely day and you must go outside the air works wonders for the Muppet brain cells.
Well at the end on Monday HBR recovered and only a small loss. FTSE did badly overall.
So how about Tuesday. As I write Asia up across the board. US took another buggush hit. Oil trying to recover and Gold down a tad. Gas moving upwards again. Crypto's trying to bounce but still high risk to the downside. $ still strong with £ weak.
Tuesday for HBR.Given it held up Monday I guess it may bounce a bit on Tuesday on the back of the oil rise and if the FTSE recovers a bit. 50/50 call but expect US markets to possibly bounce and drag the FTSE with it.
Gas prices as others have noted is a big factor for HBR if they can produce the stuff profitably against Capex. I have no idea as to the actual production costs for HBR on gas or the hedge percentages so i rely on others to provide the info.
Big drag on HBR will remain Tolmont. On line date is a bit of 'how long is a piece of string'. Unknow, as is the Capex needed to actually make it work. Add that the true numbers on oil/gas volume in the Tolmont field is a guess at best and is it viable if Capex exceeds hedged margins. Pointless pumping the stuff if you lose money.
Ommicron is certainly here for Xmas. Most countries now reporting huge surges with the US suggesting 75% new cases Omnicron. On that basis this variant has been around for months. China and Singapore now going full tilt at locking down areas.
On a more serious note. I'm now not going on my New Year cruise around NZ because they found crew members have a new variant. Whats this one called. We will soon run out of names for Covid.
All theory and those that hate my early morning musings. Don't read em. Simple.
All have a nice day.
You sent me such a short message I nearly missed it Thankfully I didn't.
Once again I'm flattered you read my early.morning musings but why oh why do you bother given they obviously upset you so.
I can only guess that your ego is rather deflated today hence a need to vent your anger at me with childish comment. Never mind, I fully understand and I'm really not offended and do remember its nearly Christmas so we need be happy and cheerful and kind to each other.
Enough of that nonsense. Your just a Dumb Muppet, no question, and even if I said HBR was a 'diamond' you would still come out with your childish prattle. May I suggest you grow up a bit for 2022.
Have a nice day.
Could be a tough week for the markets and the FTSE.
As I write Asia down across the board following big drop in the US on Friday. Oil taking a hit and Gold down. Crypto's still dropping. $ still pretty solid.
Today for HBR. Guess will track markets but oil price and sentiment still main factors. My guess is a possible sharp drop in a shortened week with money moving out of the markets over the holiday.
Omnicron causing more chaos with mandates and lockdowns in play in UK, Europe and US. This is now entering risk/reward/fear downside on markets. Add in that Manchin vetoed the US stimulus Bill and things could worsen till the New Year.
Chinese property market collapse spreading and now affecting related industries that supply raw materials like steel and concrete. Xi needs to get this under control as could impact World Markets.
Russia again playing silly sods with gas supplies to Europe so prices could spike.
All theory of coarse. For those that hate my early morning musings. Don't read them. Simple.
All have a good Monday.
My view on your posts about buying PMO for pennies, and therefore you made 'loads of money', when it became HBR I think is a bit of your own 'smoke and mirrors'. However many PMO shares you owned at consolidation resulted in a nett loss of 95%. Do the math. Say you already own 10,000 PMO shares at say an average of 40p. You brought a further 10,000 PMO at say an average of 10p. This gives you a total cost of say £5,000. At consolidation you were diluted by 95% = £250 to buy HBR shares at 400p = 62.5 HBR shares. I know because I also brought 'loads' of PMO for a few pennies.
Anyway, it matters not. The result is we ended up with a diluted 5% holding in HBR shares that have never traded in the penny range to which you refer.
Just my opinion but do feel free to tell me how you made 'loads of money' out of what was PMO that is now HBR. I'm really interested.
Do me a favour and don't get childish with your response just give a grown up explanation.
You have a lovely Sunday and a very Happy Christmas..
Sadly my insight into the workings of HBR is limited at best. Who owns what remains for me part of the reason I view this share as a 'sell'. The HBR Board use the same 'smoke and mirrors' as did PMO albeit this gang are far cleverer. Obviously others will disagree, and some may even suggest they know everything. I hope so because I think most are
You have a lovely Sunday and a very Happy Xmas.
Should I be flattered that your staying awake to read my informative early morning musings. There really is no need you can read them the next day but if you can't find them I can copy/paste for you no problem. Just let me know.
Can I ask. Are you in fact two people. One being Y11 and the other being Suposer79. I ask because its very odd that your both posting 3 messages at the exact same ungodly hour of 5.21, 5.28 and 5.34. I think your the same person, but I could be wrong, you may just be co-habiting in the same 'bat cave' and have access only to one computer.
Obviously our earlier exchanges this week were not enough to satisfy your inflated ego and I touched a 'nerve' so here we are again playing the same childish game that I'm happy to play if you wish. That said, I'm not really sure what your real point is about HBR. For me its simple, their just a bad investment, be it PMO or HBR. Clearly you think otherwise, and that's fine, everyone is entitled to their own opinions but clearly those who don't agree are always wrong. Sadly you Dumb Muppet that's not how investing works.
Thanks for sharing your buys and sells on HBR. Obviously you wanted to demonstrate your investment prowess. Question is are you lying and are you overall in 'front of the curve' on your HBR investment. I think not. Not really interested but thought I would comment anyway to make you feel happy and important and stroke your ego a bit and make you feel that you are indeed a great investor. Did it work, do you now feel happy and important?
Moving on. I do hope you can get some sleep now. Honestly, you can read my posts Saturday. Could you do me a favour. If your still drinking Fosters with the other Dumb Muppet, Suposer 79, could you give him my warmest regards.
You have a lovely weekend and a very Happy Xmas.
Oh dear Suposer. Yet another Dumb Muppet appears from under a rock in the 'bat cave' to say their two tuppence.
Not sure I ever said I knew anything much about HBR, although I did know a lot about PMO. Basically the same 'animal' with the same bad habits of 'smoke and mirrors' that looks to fool investors.
My previous view on HBR remained pretty constant, 'weak sell' changed to 'hold' but overall a pretty risky investment. That changed after the awful CMD update. Can I ask did you understand it. Anyway, following that update I moved to a 'sell' opinion. I think most agreed and this is kinda reflected in the large drop in the SP over the last 7+ days, or did you miss that.
I wish I worked at JPM, I need the money, but I'm not sure they would cover HBR. That said I think Berenberg view on HBR is reasonable at 350p. Obviously you will have other views but facts are facts so try reading them before posting.
You have a lovely weekend, and a very Happy Christmas and do try and get some sleep posting in the middle of the night after one or two Fosters is not good for your health.