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Https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/12349947
Filed their micro company accounts in December.
I’ve worked with tiny PR companies before and they can help getting articles to mostly niche websites out there at low cost.
So I’m not sure I’d categorise this as AEX resolving their communication problems but let’s hope it drives a bit more press.
I’d like to see this coupled with significantly more visibility from our CEO/Chairman beyond the odd paragraph to conclude an RNS. Jay was stronger on this front - doing the odd online interview - it’s not too much to expect for the money they get paid.
I’d challenge the assertion there is only operation risk in play…
Political risk - a less favourable party post election
Financial risk - the longer this protracts, the more money we spend. Operations in Tanzania are not the only cost to running this business
Business risk - we still don’t really know ARA’s plans for AEX - they may decide to take us private
Takeover Risk - if we think we’re hugely undervalued, so may someone else. I accept we’re offered some protection by the Omani’s
Time risk - there is political will to move away from hydrocarbons to greener solutions. Although I can’t see that halting the project, it may make the investment case less attractive and therefore less valuable. Also, there are far more high risk investment opportunities available now than when the work in Tanzania begun - crypto has taken lots of people away from O&G for example. It’s only more people wanting to buy the share that move the price up.
Things are moving - but this is still a long way off being in the bag from my POV.
I still think the only thing that will move the price is getting the drill in the ground for CH-1 - and that will be tempered by huge selling pressure.
That’s missing the point - the complexity and frustration of doing business in Tanzania is a given and widely accepted.
It is AEX’s responsibility to leverage their expertise to understand these things and communicate clear expectations to shareholders and the wider market, so investors can gauge risk and act accordingly.
If you or I were to stand up at the next AGM with 2 documents - one that listed all the instances AEX have publicly quoted dates and timelines that have been met over the past 10 years and another listing those that have not - one of those documents would be near enough a blank piece of paper.
That is at best a company that is pee-poor at communication and at worst wilfully misleading - hooking in investors while drawing a decade’s worth of remuneration.
No - you’re defending the indefensible. It took me 5 minutes pull these together. Anyone with an ounce of integrity can call AEX out for consistently releasing nonsense estimates on timelines - they’ve been doing it for decades, both as operator and not.
The re-defining and de-risking of the project materially advances first gas production, which is now expected at the end of 2023
We also look forward to the completion of the 3D seismic interpretation by the fourth quarter of 2023
Aminex is pleased to announce that plans to accelerate gas production, as outlined in our announcement of 1 November 2022, have been further developed with the Tanzanian authorities, now targeting October 2023 for production of first gas
A two-week well-testing programme on the Ntorya-2 well ("NT-2") has been designed and scheduled for late March 2023, utilising a mobile testing unit
Tanzanian Authorities have actively engaged in substantial discussions with potential contractors for an export pipeline from Ntorya to the Madimba Gas Plant to accommodate gas by October 2023.
The full 3D seismic results will be available by mid-year and will permit a full revision of gas reserve and resource potential for the field.
I think that’s the point - the company (who boast decades of expertise in dealing in Tanzania) still insist on putting estimated dates in their communications - yet they clearly have no control over them and they are missed in perpetuity. Why continue to issue these statements to the markets?
I don’t agree all responsibility can be abdicated by AEX. They have a responsibility to shareholders to at least communicate accurately and including statements like “The Gas Sales Agreement ("GSA"), approved by all parties, is with the Attorney General of Tanzania for final review. It is expected to be signed in the coming month.” is typical of their overly-optimistic statements released to market. How many times have we heard about “long lead items” being sourced? They have the expertise in Tanzania and therefore know better than most that timelines cannot be assured - my view is they constantly mislead with their messaging.
It works both ways - a series of posts/posters refusing to post anything but a binary view. All serves to break a discussion board that could be a useful resource if used with more maturity and without personal attacks.
Gosh - that was all very personal. We’ve all been reading the RNS’s and according to the information they provide, we’re currently 6 years late drilling a well with no firm date as to when it will happen.
The market speaks far louder than the half dozen or so individuals here who rose-tint this share. The unwillingness to absorb any point of view that is less than positive is just odd, and actually serves to undermine any belief that there may be a worthwhile investment case.
Good to see they’re still ordering those long lead items. I wonder where they store them all; they’ve been ordering them for years.
http://admin.aminex-plc.com/uploadfiles/190924%20Ruvuma%20Farm-Out%20Update%20and%20Acceleration%20of%20Drillings%20Operations.pdf
As far as I’m aware, booking reserves is a process. Gather the 3D, model the reservoir(s) and have it independently reviewed & verified. So we’re on the right path, I’m just not sure on timelines.
My gut feel is that we have been incredibly lucky and that the original seismic is so poor that it cannot be used to model anything meaningful. The positive being that anywhere we’ve stuck a hole in the ground has produced results (even if T-2 nearly blew up half of Tanzania) which implies, to my mind at least, that the field is ridiculously large. Hopefully I can be produced from safely.
What really plays in my mind is what the Zubairs intention is for Aminex. As noted on another thread, they could take us out effortlessly. Or, as I’ve opined before, use AEX as a vehicle for ownership of a FTSE250 company - I see genuine merit in that.
We’ve known flow rates for years, we’ve known GIIP estimates for years, we have seen improved political climate, farm outs, operational progress … and yet still the share price languishes.
The point I’m making is that until reserves are booked and proved, it is incredibly difficult to achieve a solid, sustainable rise in market capitalisation. I solidly believe we’re closer to achieving that than ever before, but it’s a significant milestone we need to achieve.
It’s very healthy to ask why the MCap/share price languishes and will not hold on to any sustainable rise.
Reserves and revenue would be my view - I’d be interested to hear the views of others.
And please, no more jam tomorrow rhetoric. Hard-nosed, unemotional analysis is much more interesting don’t you think? ;)
That’s a silly answer Tanzania and demonstrates a view that’s equally as incapable of any impartiality as Rojo’s, but from the polar opposite viewpoint.
I clearly stated that the estimates of gas in place are impressive, but proven reserves are an entirely different ball game to GIIP when attracting (particularly institutional) investment.
If you really want Aminex to be viewed as a credible investment I’d suggest raising the game on discussion - people will come here as a source research - if posts from the bulls not credible, it hardly underpins a sound narrative for the company.
To answer the question at the start of this thread - AEX currently have no proven reserves.
All we have are (impressive) estimates of gas in place. Moving to proven reserves would I think be a significant catalyst for the share price.