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Yes and to be on target to reach cash flow break even without further funding they needed to be at or close to the 55000 prescriptions target in q4... instead they achieved just half that.
Do you think they are going to achieve the previous target of 330000 Rx in 2024 now, after achieving 77000 RX in 2023?
We don't know exactly how long the cash runway is but the market is betting on it not being very long.
As of the end of 2023 SRB had a net cash position of $5m after considerable investment that year, around 2500 oz stockpiled ready to be sold ($5.5m at current prices) and at an average price so far for 2024 heading towards $2150/oz are set to post ebitda of ~$30m. Low capex route to 60k oz by the end of 2025 and long term plans for 100k-200k operation.
What value do you think SRB should be, then?
6p would be a dream and highly unlikely now.
Cash was $13.6m end of June. They then $6.2m + a $20m debt facility and then finished the year with $13.9m. I don't think mgmt shared how much of the debt facility was drawn down but therefore it can assume to be significant.
The market suspects cash is dwindling to zero now and with the mcap at just £12m and debt on the books (despite being pre profit) what comes next is dilution to oblivion - or a cheap buyout at 2p.
I stand by my earlier comment that this is an excellent move. I didn't actually see it coming so soon but I'm relieved that James actually recognises his limitations and/or isn't trying to just draw a comfortable salary long term.
We can now think of the company as Yourgene + Primer Design + IT IS + Novacyt's r&d team and additional products + £44m cash + debt free. That's a world away from the YG that was valued at £80m+ prior to covid.
Certainly true that ‘cash is king’ right now - you even have companies like Biosynex that not long ago were valued at €300m could end up on Novacyt’s radar as a way to take large European market share.
Although I suspect most acquisitions will be small bolt on types and non listed entities
I still think providing the funding that GDR badly needs at this stage would be the better option - for just a few million ncyt could own 20% of something that might soon be far larger and with it incentivise partnership and collaboration between the two companies.
Another slightly underwhelming monthly update to add to the pile but at least this time the jam promised is backed up with action following Lincoln’s purchases a few weeks back - this strongly implies mgmt fully expect the cashew to start delivering.
Been a painful hold but feel like we’re going to start to see some returns soon(ish)
Yes under his stewardship the share price collapsed alongside every other AIM diagnostics company in 2022 when markets turned - GDR, ABDX, ODX etc
Did YG need more money to get the most out of their tech and products and reach profitability? If so they have it in spades now.
It is inevitable that many with a connection to YG previously will come on here to tell us what a bad decision this is but us Novacyt holders that post on here, on the whole, have been championing this move.
Ncyt needs a dynamic ceo that has the potential to drive growth in a way that James McCarthy was clearly unable to - Lyn is that person despite being one of a plethora of AIM ceos that failed to manage the extremely difficult AIM market landscape over the past few years. Guaranteed success? Obviously not but at least the potential is there now.
Why? Monthly results haven't been released as early as the 10th since October - the 10th-12th is the standard range now with the occasional late one on the 13th.
Direct costs come out in that range yes but you can't attribute a gross margin multiplier of 6-10 when there are now such large indirect costs, in particular financing on debt.
$40/kgV would turn the outlook on its head sure but the risk is mounting all the whilst the vanadium price is so much lower than that and with the issues around SPR/Acacia alongside. There are no signs of any near term improvement in prices either, in fact European prices are heading back to the bottom we saw in December.
I assume the timelines were given because they had to, after all they’ve been working this financing from at least September of last year and the cash runway is narrowing.
Fingers crossed there’s no hiccups and it lands this week.