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If the result goes ncyt’s way then any payout close to the counterclaim will have them sitting on more cash than they did even at the peak of covid, having already endured all the costly restructuring and having acquired a quality company in YG.
No we won’t revisit the share price peak of 2020 but boy will they be well setup to hit the ground running from July forward.
My guess is that he's been made inside and there's a placing coming.
'Due to the lack of revenue streams and the increased cash burn rate, the group's and the parent company's ability to continue as a going concern are dependent on raising additional funding in the second half of 2024. We have discussed with the directors the strategies that they are pursuing to secure further funding if and when required.'
The SP bounced off the bottom following Alastair's director purchase but I'm talking about since the two updates on 7th March. I wasn't expecting immediate changes but we will need start to seeing action match talk for a genuine recovery, of which being at 5.8p isn't.
As the year runs from March to March we're now due a full year trading update, let's hope that H2 at least beat H1 production-wise for starters. From there I expect to start seeing progress on the fronts I previously discussed - cash from the Mad gov. , debt facility, reputable new NEDs etc
I don't disagree now that this has become somewhat uninvestable until changes are seen / improvements are made but that clearly wasn't the case in the past. There was no issue in raising funds even as recently as January and the only reason more wasn't raised previously was because the Poddars didn't want to dilute themselves and believed they could achieve all that they planned to with the most minimal of resources.
It was slowly becoming evident through 2023 that Shishir's walk did not match his talk but it was only after the resignation of Isobel that investors truly rushed for the exit. Before that the board was starting to look a lot healthier but after isobel's resignation, followed by Murat, Shishir was forced into the laughable decision to have a board of three - himself, Puruvi and the apprentice.
So far over a month has passed and none of the proposed changes have been seen. The search for a CFO continues, the search for two new NEDs goes on, the $2m hasn't arrived and there's no news on the working capital facility. So far so bad.
True but that’s partly due to the chasm of difference between the two sectors. The gold environment is so strong that timescales can slip, actuals can fall slightly short but whatever happens cash isn’t going to become a constraint and strategy can go ahead as planned.
There is still a bit of mistrust of management here hence the poor valuation vs fundamentals but the margins and cash generation are simply too good to ignore.
In summary Shield has underperformed against expectations time and time again.
The most recent equity raise and debt facility was to get STX to breakeven. For this to happen they needed to hit very punchy targets but not only did the most recent results show they are on the completely wrong path (28.6k prescriptions vs 55.5k target) but the previous quarters were revised down too.
So for example prescriptions in 2023 came in at 77k and if you just looked at the 206% growth rate you might think excellent! But this was the year when the full sales force were in place and trained up. Do you know what the original guidance for 2023 was? 140K, it was then downgraded to 100k-130k range and that was missed by a mile.
In order for that cash break even to be achieved before a cash call is needed STX are going to need to up their average net price per Rx in 2024 and beat the previous target of 330k prescriptions... how likely do you think that is compared with 77k in 2023? And at what cost do you think the cash call will come at if it isn't achieved now that the current mcap has fallen to just £11m?
CS no way that's happening with market cap just a tad higher than the net cash position.
If it carried on in a straight line to £2 (with nothing actually happening re the dispute behind the scenes) then sure they might be obliged to put something out, but not 50p to 70p!
This latest move started with a determined buyer late on Monday that's continued all week. Do they have an inside track as to what's happening re the dispute? Possibly but more likely they're simply happy with the risk:reward on offer here and are building a position ready for that news. And then you'll have traders liking the 'signals' and following them in.
Wouldn't it be great if AVCT caught these shorters out and paid this next Heights conversion in cash? Unlikely I know but would do sentiment and the SP the world of good and only eat up a fraction of the cash on hand.
When you look at Pacbio's balance sheet you start to realise what a rare position Novacyt is in in have such a strong net cash position and no debt. For example Pacbio was valued at $3b as recently as mid 2023 with net debt of $700m and significantly loss making, even at the ebitda level.
All it will take is very modest profitability whilst remaining debt free for Novacyt to be valued many, many times what it is now.
A few of us were saying this Wilson around the time of the YG acquisition as Pacbio had qualified LightBench however it just seemed unlikely that such a giant would getting into a bidding war with little Novacyt - after all Pacbio was valued at $3B at the time.
Funnily enough they themselves have seen their value crash nearly 90% since the start of 2024.