Member Info for GreyPanther

Don't hold your breath for too long. How is CO going to buy a vast number of UJO shares without pushing up the SP, unless it's in a placing. No further cash is required, and we've not seen a TR-1 Notification from him recently. Do you honestly think after what he's done to UJO that DB would let him or his broker - whoever has the misfortune to act for him - anywhere near a placing? Isn't there a rumour, possibly unfounded, that he's broke. Will he be using washers to buy all those shares?

With exec directors' remuneration I'm far more interested in what they have done for the market cap and the share price, rather how much they have invested in projects. Any fool can throw money at a project; it's the results that count, IMHO.

Hi mixster. Thanks for putting the record straight on DB's (lack of) involvement in fraccing while at Nighthawk. I too was a NH investor and, unlike many, I made some money out of it. Anyway, I was pretty sure that was the case but I couldn't readily prove it. I wonder why it is, as soon as anyone mentions onshore oil, they almost automatically jump to the conclusion that fraccing must be involved. If it was said by a half-baked protester I could perhaps understand it, but you'd think that anyone with an investment here would know what going on, or not!

Yes, watching RBD's share price is like watching paint dry. I wonder that our two over-paid execs don't try to do something about it. Or maybe they are, but it's having no effect.

I don't know if Corallian is particularly material to Reabold. Probably it isn't, but one of the partners in their offshore Colter discovery has implied that it's non-commercial and the block may be dropped. That's after several wells, and in spite of it being so close to onshore oil production at Wytch Farm. You might have thought there would be the capacity for W F to take any oil produced from Colter. This makes me wonder if there is still anything of value left in Corallian's portfolio, especially when RBD owns nearly 35% of Corallian

Hi Doorstop123. Funnily enough (or not maybe) I sold some of my UJO holding some months ago to buy Into RBD because I thought the latter was massively undervalued. In value my holdings are now spit about 80 % UJO and 20% RBD. With hindsight that wasn't a good move. But I haven't sold because I live in hope that RBD's SP will get moving soon.

UJO have paid 25% of all the WN A-2 costs, and this includes the EWT. This was a 25% payment for their 16.665% interest so it represents a 1.5 for 1.0 "promote" and it was paid to Rathlin for UJO's farm-in. Thereafter, including the B-2 well, they are not promoted, so they will pay only 16.665% going forward. This isn't a guess as I had it from the "horses mouth" at one of UJO's presentations. One further thought on the UJO vs. RBD valuation discussion: Over the last few months UJO have commissioned quite a lot of research from companies who are not their usual brokers. Shard Capital are the latest, but there's also been research by Arden and TMS Reach, whoever they may be. It may well be that this is having some effect on new investors, and I don't think RBD do this. Maybe they should.

Rubey. That's certainly the case. There's £500k for Humber's 12.5% Wressle interest and £115k for 3% of Montrose's Biscathorpe interest, so there's £625kat least. It will be quite helpful to see how much cash is left in everyone's 30 June interims. I've assumed that only the B-1 well will be drilled in 2020, but B-2 would add another £1.25 MM approx. for UJO, and there's probably a WN seismic programme to factor in. Maybe we should be posting all this on UJO's BB!

Hi BlachHopper. Many thanks for your comments. However, I don't think I've ever said "it should be .8p now"- although I may have implied it. I'd sincerely like our SP to be much better than that, but I don't think I've ever indicated a price target for RBD. All the best, GP

Rubey, I'm pretty sure that nothing like all of UJO's £5m cash will be required to cover their share of West Newton costs. Some of it is definitely earmarked for their Wressle development and the ongoing Biscathorpe costs. This is only my recollection, but I have read somewhere that the A-2 EWT has mostly been paid for in advance by UJO. I assume the WN-B2 well will cost about £7.5 million gross to drill, test and complete, so it will only come to about £1.25 million net for UJO's 16.665% share. Plus, of course, there are all their other ongoing licence costs and corporate overheads. In summary, my sums indicate that they will be OK for all their current assets in 2020.

Thanks Rubey. RBD had just under £7 million cash at year end, and I think UJO had about £5 million. Obviously a fair bit of that must have been spent by both companies since then but, if you take the cash off the market cap you will get what used to be called their enterprise value. For RBD this is (or was) £40 - £7 or about £33 million and for UJO it is £35 - £5 or about £30 million. That's even closer, so it doesn't help us all that much.

Could someone please tell me why our market value and SP are completely out of synch with Union Jack's. The latter are up another 7% today and their market cap is now £35 million compared with our £40 million. So what is it that they are doing and we are not? Perhaps it's only that UJO has a large following of what might best be called "day traders", whereas we - I hope - have mainly long term holders. Any ideas would be appreciated by me. Thanks.

Hi mixster. Thanks v. much for those interesting maps you posted on Twitter. I'll try to share mine later on if I can only work out how to do it. ATB, GP

Hi Mixster. Thanks for your helpful posting. Your information about three rather than just two potential reservoir targets at WN (the Brotherton, Kirkham Abbey and Cadeby formations) was very interesting as I hadn't heard about the Brotherton before. I've tried to find out a bit more since. Apparently Brotherton is the latest name for the much better known Upper Magnesian Limestone, and it's present over much of East and NE England. The Cadeby is a new name for the Lower Magnesian Limestone and it's also fairly widespread. I don't know what the Kirkham Abbey, where the oil and gas are located, was previously called, but it sits in between the two other limestones. From some geology maps published in the 1980’s I was able to discover that the KA formation is well developed in the area around, and to the north and south of WN. What puzzles me, though, is that the Cadeby is much thicker to the west, and the Brotherton is much thicker to the east, apparently under the Southern North Sea. The Rathlin people presumably know what they are doing but, if the old maps are right, they could get a bit of a surprise. Only time will tell if the WN B-1 well is located in a good place to find oil in the Cadeby reef, if that’s what it really is, but I sincerely hope the KA formation will be good as it was in the A-1 and A-2 wells. So, roll on B-1 spud, I say!

Rubey and BlackHopper. Thanks for your comments. I agree that Keddington and Fiskerton are minnows. North Kelsey and Biscathorpe aren't all that big either according to Egdon. The last two are of slightly more significance, but all of four assets need a well. So, significant cash will need to be spent, and I'm invested in UJO too! My main concern with UJO is that Egdon is the operator for all four assets and they seem to be a bit short of money,. Their market cap is only about £7 million, so I wonder about Egdon's ability to raise much more cash.

Hello Heid. I agree that the A-2 EWT can't possibly affect Rathlin's programme for the B-2 well since the latter must have already been planned in great detail. But I don't share your view that the B-1 well has been planned primarily to appraise the Cadeby formation, if that's what your post below is saying. It will almost certainly evaluate the Cadeby if the well is drllled deep enough, but it's not the primary objective. This is only my view, but I think B-2 is planned to be a further appraisal well for the KIrkham Abbey discovery. Oil in the Cadeby would be a huge bonus, but all we've seen from the cadeby up to now (as far as I can recall) is a core with oil shows, but no logged oil column so far. Do you have any further info? Thanks, GP

Hi Black Hopper. I wonder what our institutional investors really think about our non-West Newton asset values. It seems to me that it might not be very much at the moment. And, in the RBD- UJO debate, how do the assets of each compare? As you say, ours are Parta, California, and Corallian. The latest news from Parta hasn't exactly set the world on fire and we've heard very little (?nothing) from California since late Feb. I assume things are still reasonably OK in the USA, but who knows how the Covid crisis has affected operations there. Looking at what some of Corallian's partners have said lately, the company looks ever more like a busted flush, particularly with respect to Colter. I'm invested here for West Newton and I agree that we are highly undervalued. However, it's worth pointing out that UJO, together with its operator Egdon, have managed to produce fairly positive news lately about most of their other assets. Could that be why our valuation seems out of step with UJO's?

Hi O2B@C. Can you tell me whose net asset values you are using for your comparison please? I've tried doing much the same thing but their other assets are very different, and several different brokers' research seem to assess the individual assets' risk factors quite differently.

Hi gkb47. I suppose Rathlin may bring in a small work-over rig to drill the surface / pilot hole for the B-1 well before they bring in a much larger drilling rig. The work-over rig could, I guess, also be used for the EWT. The recent progress with the access road, and some other pre-well construction work that's been filmed and shared, suggest to me that it's possible the B-1 well will start before the EWT, especially if the testing people and equipment are still not yet in the UK. I don't know how many UK based staff Rathlin have but, they are quite a small company, so it may not be very many. My thinking is therefore that unless Rathlin hire some consultants to manage the forthcoming activities, they may not want to run two operations (Drilling and the EWT) at the same time. However, this is only yet more speculation!

Hi gkb47. I too am "expecting an RNS from UJO shortly " but I won't be holding breath after all these months of delay by Rathlin. What will get me excite, though, is a posting here that a rig has moved to one of the sites, preferably both. We can then be pretty certain that some real activity is imminent. Until then it's mainly rumour and wishful thinking IMHO.