Member Info for GreyPanther

Hi Rubey and Alexios. On past form I believe the WN wells have been more expensive than usual since some have been deviated wells, and I believe both have been cored. So my B-1 cost estimate is a bit higher than £3.5 million. In fact, I'd say it will be closer to £5.5 million for a dry hole, plus a further £2.0 million for a test programme, say £7.5 million for a successful well. If that's the case, RBD will have to stump up something close to £1.25 million for the 16.665% interest they recently bought from Humber. However, I'd hope that Rathlin are still sitting on a lot of the cash that RBD invested in them to acquire their approx. 59% holding. So I'm hoping that we won't have to concern ourselves with Rathlin's much bigger share of the WN costs.

Hello Heid. You, and probably quite a few other shareholders, are hoping for another interview from David Bramhill. If I were him (which I'm obviously not) I'd ask myself why would or should I do this. If he tells people in an informal interview setting what he thinks has happened or will be happening soon, and it doesn't go exactly to plan, he will probably receive a severe telling off on here, and would doubtless receive some even worse earfuls from aggrieved shareholder on the phone. In my view there's absolutely no mileage for him to give these interviews when nearly every word will analysed at the time, picked over months later and even, on occasions, taken out of context. Far better, IMO, to stick to RNSs where every word can be scrutinised first by UJO's advisors, or at least should be.

Hi AJamesW. "40% of Wressle ….. worth .80p". I'm assuming that's a joke! UJO will soon have a massive 19.8 Billion shares in issue, so 0.8p would represent about £158 million, and that's just for our 40% share. Well, we can dream!

Hi Lenin. You're quite right, and I'm sorry for theerror. But I still think the rest of it stands.

Someone on Union Jack's board was saying that they preferred Egdon and I thought "that's nice". Then I thought about it a bit more and I didn't find myself in complete agreement. I'm sorry to repeat my myself here - but I'd appreciate some other views on what follows:
"I rate Egdon too and I own quite few shares, but I still don't think they’re a better bet than UJO. I've two reasons for saying this. First, they don't appear to have significant exposure to any really large projects except for Resolution, and drilling there is quite a long way off as they haven't even done the 3D seismic yet. And I do realise they own 30% of Wressle, as do UJO. Wressle is potentially very profitable, but it’s not exactly huge, so it won’t pay many bills. Second, Egdon seem to me to be quite short of cash. They currently have the capacity to issue only about a further 75 million shares, which would bring in about £ 1.5 million at the current SP. Would that be that enough to do all the things they should (or must) be doing at Wressle, Biscathorpe, North Kelsey & Keddington, and at Resolution in due course? I think they will have to get shareholder consent to raise any more than this, and they have two shareholders (Petrichor Holdings with 33.99% and Premier Oil with 15.08%) who don't seem to have much spare cash. Well, not IMO, and I also get the impression that Petrichor aren’t very keen on being diluted. However, I’d personally rather have less than 30% of a well funded company than 34% of one that can’t afford to do what needs to be done. So I reckon they might have to give their consent for Egdon to raise a bit more than £1.5 million before we're much older. I therefore think we can expect to suffer a significant dilution here, as at UJO, before too long.

Hi scoredagainsteps. I rate Egdon too and I own quite few shares, but I still don't think they’re a better bet than UJO. I've two reasons for saying this. First, they don't appear to have significant exposure to any really large projects except for Resolution, and drilling there is quite a long way off as they haven't even done the 3D seismic yet. And I do realise they own 30% of Wressle, as do UJO. Wressle is potemtially very profitable, but it’s not exactly huge, so it won’t pay many bills. Second, Egdon seem to me to be quite short of cash. They currently have the capacity to issue only about a further 75 million shares, which would bring in about £ 1.5 million at the current SP. Would that be that enough to do all the things they should (or must) be doing at Wressle, Biscathorpe, North Kelsey & Keddington, and at Resolution in due course? I think they will have to get shareholder consent to raise any more than this, and they have two shareholders (Petrichor Holdings with 33.99% and Premier Oil with 15.08%) who don't seem to have much spare cash. Well, not IMO, and I also get the impression that Petrichor aren’t very keen on being diluted. However, I’d personally rather have less than 30% of a well funded company than 34% of one that can’t afford to do what needs to be done. So I reckon they might have to give their consent for Egdon to raise a bit more than £1.5 million before we're much older. I therefore think we can expect to suffer a significan dilution here, as at UJO, before too long. All the best, GP

Hi AJamesW. I've asked elsewhere about that " B2 horizontal gas drill" which you hope might be drilled immediately after the B-1. well. Unfortunately it seems that it was taken an old slide which UJO removed from their later presentations. However, it might still be included in Reabold's presentation. I was told that although it looked like a potential development well for the gas-bearing section, it apparently bears no relationship to what might be drilled at some point as a future B-2 appraisal well. I hope this is helpful. GP

Hi there mijas. I usually expect Malcy to follow the party line because it saves him from doing too much research for himself. This view, and it's only a personal one, is based on what he has written about a few other companies where I've some idea about what's going on behind the scenes. So I sincerely hope we don't pay a lot of money for this journalism. Today's blog can be found at: https://www.malcysblog.com/2020/09/oil-price-union-jack-and-finally-2/
and I see that he also said “UJO announced a £7m raise yesterday .........at £0.16p per share." It’s no wonder some shareholders get confused over our share price but Malcy's really should know better. What does “£0.16p” actually mean? If it was £0.16 we would all probably be delighted, So was it 0.16p or £0.16? Come on Malcy! The latter would make it 16p in my book, which it obviously wasn’t. Maybe we should just put it down to poor punctuation, but it's rather sloppy reporting in my book.

Hi RNSTanslator. I'm sure you're right. I can't honestly see UJO blowing much of that £7MM cash on Egdon, but maybe making some selective purchases. It loos almost certain to me that Egdon are almost "running on fumes" at the moment. All the best, GP

UJO have announced a £7 million share placing today without saying precisely what it's for. In their own words: "The Company is already funded for the imminent drilling at West Newton and for the associated Extended Well Test activities and the cost to first oil production at the Wressle development. With the fundraising net proceeds, our cash position increases to approximately £11 million and will assist in funding our next growth phase. This fund raising will allow us to continue to invest in our conventional onshore flagship projects and invest for growth in our wider licence interests and drill up to four wells in our drill-ready portfolio before the end of 2021”. They then added: "We also believe there will be attractive acquisition opportunities available from the ongoing fallout resulting from COVID, energy prices and BREXIT”. Egdon’s market cap is only about £7 million today, so I'm wondering if UJO might have their eyes on some of Egdon’s better assets, or perhaps even the whole company. But, to answer my own question, I do hope they aren't wanting to own or operate Egdon's numerous shale gas assets.

Hi Austin14. I'm afraid WN is NOT guaranteed. There has been no commercial flow rate so far, and the B-1 well is termed an appraisal well. Although it's not widely reported, the average success rates for appraisal wells is only slightly better than 50 to 60%, depending on where they're located. And, regarding your ".....different equipment is needed for oil as opposed to gas - you do understand that don't you". This suggests - to me anyway - that either you don't understand it yourself, or maybe you didn't say exactly what you meant. The same equipment is needed to drill for oil, gas or condensate. That is, unless you're expecting hydrogen sulphide, in which case you'd better us a higher grade of casing and drill pipe. It's actually oil and gas testing which requires different equipment. But I'm sure you understand that!

Thanks Jack. I worked with Jon Ford many years ago, and I rate him highly. I was therefore slightly surprised to see that S & S don't appear from their RNSs to have used him, or any other third party expert, in their more recent deals. This might be because they relied on in-house technical expertise at Rathlin when they increasied their West Newton participation in the deal with Humber . To my mind, this purchase seems to me to have been a real "steal", but only time (and the EWT and B-1) will tell.

Ivans. I believe 0.15p was the November 2019 placing price. I'd be surprised if the placing price - If there is to be another - has been agreed yet. It will presumably be at an approx. 10% discount to the SP on the day, if / when it comes. But who knows? Probably no one on this board, I'd suggest.

Thanks Rubey. He's one of the more sensible posters on UJO's LSE board. Someone seems not to have liked it though, or maybe another posting it relates to. I've been told that the LSE moderator often removes a complete thread if it contains something "interesting" to which another poster objects.

Rubey. the post that you mentioned on UJO's bulletin board at 20.59 yesterday seems to have been removed as I couldn't find it there. Do you know who the author was? Thanks, GP

Rubey, BH and JD. Many thanks for your thoughts yesterday; they were very enlightening. May I respond to JD's comment "I don’t buy S&S as being non technical, as their previous jobs suggest otherwise". I wasn't trying to suggest that they are incompetent, even if I don' agree with all their previous investments. They clearly have the necessary commercial / financial / market experience to run a company like RBD. It's just that - and I'm thinking as a former geologist here - based on some of RBD's investments, S and S seem to have behaved as if they believed they are world class geologists / geophysicists and the like, which they are clearly not. Still, so long as they are getting good advice in the technical arena and are acting on it, I'm happy to stick with them. I certainly can't fault their WN investment decision(s). Well, not just yet!

Hello Heid. Very amusing, those leeks. And did you see SP Angel's UJO note yesterday? Well, I know they're the company's broker, so it's part of their job, but they are now suggesting a trading price of 0.82p which is nearly five times our current SP, so I live in hope. All the best, GP

This is only a personal view, but we need to be a bit more realistic about UJO placings. Why would David Bramhill voluntarily agree to something like feelinlucky's "Shareholders Charter" so as to have his hands tied in that way? It would make future fundraisings predictable, and the shares would almost certainly be sold down just before the set placing dates, and fund raisings would become even more tricky than they are now. It would also make it almost impossible for the management to respond in a timely way to any deals that might come along. So, while it might be an interesting concept for some, it's a complete non-starter in my opinion. My take on the rumoured UJO placing - if it actually happens - is that money will definitely be required next year for the company's various projects. UJO's management might feel that fundraising will become even more difficult next year, thanks to Covid and its consequences, such as even lower oil prices. So, working on the principle that you can't be too rich, why not gather in a bit more cash now, before the competition gets too hot next year? As I said, this is just an opinion. All the best, GP

Hi there Rubey and BH. I still can't really understand why RBD's SP has been so weak recently. I can see that we've had a poor Parta result, and that UJO is under a lot of pressure because of the rumours about their placing, or some other fund raising, but I can't understand our current SP. RBD / Rathlin are still well funded, I believe, so could it be that the market is worried about UJO's apparently urgent need for more cash (although their recent interims don't seem to support this). Could it be that some folk are expecting more bad news at RBD? It's unlikely to be from Parta, since that particular cat is out of the bag. But could all the talk about the West Newton C and D well sites have got people worried that we are in it for the long haul, rather than the early sale that S and S predicted some time back? Or maybe the disappointments at Corallian, the unfortunate Deltic foray, and more recently at Parta, have made people slightly worried about their judgement. I think / hope it's not that, and I realise they are not exactly technically minded. But surely that's why RBD has non-exec directors and advisors, one would have thought. I sincerely hope that I'm worrying unnecessarily. What do you guys think? Thanks, GP

Hi there MajorThomas1. Thanks for your helpful posting. In my opinion IOG needs Deltic but Deltic doesn't need IOG anywhere near as much. Or maybe we don't need IOG at all. IOG had a very disappointing well result not long ago, IMHO. This may have been because many of their Southern North Sea prospects are very low relief and subject to severe changes on drilling. But who hasn't had disappointments unless they have never drilled anything, which is pretty well where Deltic currently is, in my view. BTW, my comment on the IOG blocks is based on a previous involvement in them when we didn't have nearly as much modern 3D seismic data as we now have.