Member Info for GreyPanther

If Rathlin are still drilling, and we don't really know if they are, then IMO it will take another 5 to 7 days to get to the casing point, run the casing and let the cement set. Then we have to drill a few more hundred metres to the KA and maybe core it. So I'm not expecting any news soon. I reckon any news leak / announcement about the KA must be at least 10 days away.

If Rathlin are still drilling, and I say "if" because I don't think we really know, then it will take another 5 to 7 days to run the casing and let the cement set. Then we have to drill a few more hundred metres to the KA and, maybe, core it. So I'm not expecting any news on Monday. I reckon any leak / announcement about the KA can't be less than 10 days away.

Zechstein gas can contain hydrogen sulphide (smells like rotten eggs) and mercaptans (smells a bit like cabbage). But we aren't in the Zechstein yet, so it can't be that. It's more likely to be the great unwashed, IMHO.

Hi LondonInvestor. I think you are wrong about a placing, so what makes you think it's likely? In my opinion another placing is not on the cards for probably another year. They've only just raised £7 million, so why would they need to do it again?

There are rumours on the Reabold board that Rathlin are currently running the intermediate (9 5/8") casing. I'm not entirely convinced but, If it's true, they would most likely be at the top of the Zechstein already. From published well data, the Zechstein is at about 1,500 metres in a vertical hole and up to 1,600 metres drilled depth in a deviated well in the WN area. This would suggest that progress has been very fast up to now. So, before we get too excited, has anyone actually seen what's going on at the well site, perhaps from a drone? Or is it only a rumour from someone looking at the well site from a long way away, and who probably wouldn't recognise casing if he were to trip over it?

?Reply?Recomm

If Rathlin are currently running the intermediate (9 5/8") casing, then they should be at the top of the Zechstein section already. It's at about 1,500 metres in a vertical hole and up to 1,600 metres drilled depth in a deviated well in the WN area. This would suggest that progress has been very fast. Has anyone actually seen what's going on with the casing?

I hope I'm not adding to the confusion but, in answer to AJamesW's query, as well as the Kirkham Abbey and Cadeby, two other formations have hydrocarbon shows in adjacent areas but not, as far as I'm aware, on the West Newton licence, even though these formations are present at WN. These are the Brotherton Fm, which produced gas near the top of the Zechstein in North Yorkshire, and the Rotliegendes which has produced vast amounts of gas from below the Zechstein quite nearby in the Southern North Sea. I'm not sure whether Rathlin would now regard these as valid objectives as they have drilled through them three times at Crawberry Hill and WN 1 and 2 without apparently seeing anything of interest.

Hi RNSTranslator. Thanks for that. Do you know if the testing was conducted in the open hole, presumably in the KA Formation, or had drilling already finished and the formation isolated with casing or a liner? If it was, it was presumably a very short / abortive production test, rather than a DST. At the risk of being pedantic I think it was probably a very short production test conducted after the drilling had been completed and a liner had been run, mainly on safety grounds. It's probably a trifling difference but it's relevant as to whether we might learn anything interesting this time "on the way down", or not.

Rubey has posted a link to an interesting document which has been discussed on Reabold’s LSE board too. But please bear in mind what this document is: it’s the Environment Agency’s July 2016 consent to Rathlin’s 2015 application for the construction of the B well site. We are not looking at the detailed B-1 drilling programme here, and Rathlin’s understanding of the local geology will probably have have changed quite a bit in the intervening years, thanks in part to the WN A-2 well. Rathlin’s detailed B-1 DP is not available to us, but it's probably much more recent. In response to the suggestion that they might carry out a DST while still in the Kirkham Abbey, they are clearly allowed to do this in the EA’s document but, for safety reasons and with all the public scrutiny, they probably won't do this. This has mainly to do with the Zechstein pressure regime, with different / high pressures being possible in each of the KA & Cadeby reservoirs, and the pressure doesn't always increase gradually with depth. This means they will almost certainly want to get the Cadeby behind casing before they do any testing, regardless of where oil and / or gas are seen while drilling. IMO, of course. Also, it's unlikely to be a simple DST (drill stem test) because this implies an open hole test using packers. These are almost never carried out these days when drilling in the Zechstein. This is again to do with the pressure uncertainties. In addition, the well will probably reach its total depth at / in the top of the Carbonifereous, as in most wells in the area. This means they will also penetrate the Rotliegendes, which is a gas-bearing reservoir in the nearby Southern North Sea. This is likely to be normally pressured, but they will want this behind casing too. They certainly won't want to use another casing string if they can avoid it. Sorry for this rather long response.

Rubey, Thanks; I realise it was the EA's decision document, but most of the detailed info in it will have been lifted by the EA from Rathlin's B Site application. I really should have said "the information from which the EA's document appears to have been derived was compiled to get the their consent for the B site", but was trying to save a few words. And, of course, what's below ground obviously hasn't changed since the document was written, but their understanding of it will has changed, thanks to the A-2 well. This was surprisingly different (reservoir-wise) to what was in the WN-1 well, eg. the KA was 82m thick in WN-1 and gas-bearing, but only 65m thick in WN A-2 and containing gas and liquids. So they will certainly have changed their minds about a lot of details in the more recent drilling programme which is apparently dated 2020.

Rubey. It's an interesting report which I've seen before, thanks, but it's now very old. Quite a lot of the text seems to be "boiler plate", and probably written by a consultant. It seems to me to have been compiled to get the EA's consent for the B site back in 2015/16, and it's not the detailed B-1 drilling programme which will almost certainly have been written / approved much more recently. The current DP will presumably be for a deviated well, with all the attendant technical issues dealt with.
BH. That's genuinely not the case. I've been invested as fully as I can afford since May '20 at an average price of 0.625p. I do, however, like to see accurate research, not over-reliance on old reports, no matter how interesting. And I wouldn't be leaving my investment this late if I wasn't yet invested. Probably one more casing run to go, and we could be drilling in the Zechstein in a week or two.

Rubey. If that's what it says in that report, so be it. It's technically correct, but they still won't do it for the (mainly safety) reasons that I've given. Almost no one runs DSTs these days.

Rubey, In response to your suggestion of doing a DST while still in the KA, there's a good reason why they probably won't do this. Bearing in mind our readers' sensitivities, I'll try not to mention the B******ton again by name! It's to do with the Zechstein pressure regime, with different pressures possible in each of the three potential reservoirs, and they don't always increase with depth. This means they will want to get the Cadeby behind 7" casing before they do any testing, regardless of where the oil and / or gas are seen. Also, it's unlikely to be a simple DST (drill stem test) because this implies an open hole test, which is almost never done in the Zechstein, again to do with possibly high pressures. I reckon total depth will probably be at / in the top of the Carbonifereous. This means we will also penetrate the Rotliegendes, which is a potential gas-bearing reservoir, as in the nearby Southern North Sea. As it's likely to be normally pressured here, they will want this behind casing too, and they won't want to use another casing string if they can avoid it. Sorry for the long answer. GP

Egdon, the Wressle operator, are still being vague about the start-up date. In their RNS yesterday they said "The (PEDL 143) relinquishment ……. enables Egdon to focus its resources on the core near-term priorities; namely, moving to production at Wressle during this quarter …...". To my mind this means some time before 31st December. We can obviously hope for a lot earlier than this, but have any of the other partners said anything more definite than that lately, I wonder?

I see that Egdon, who ought to know since they are the Wressle operator, are still being vague about its start-up date. In their RNS yesterday they said "The (PEDL 143) relinquishment ……. enables Egdon to focus its resources on the core near-term priorities; namely, moving to production at Wressle during this quarter …...". To my mind this means any time before 31st December. We can obviously hope for a lot earlier than this, but have any of the partners said anything more definite than that lately?

Egdon currently have the capacity to issue only a further 76 million shares without calling an EGM, and that's assuming their two larger institutional investors (Petrichor Holdings: 33.99% and Premier Oil: 15.08%) will support a placing. If they could place all these shares at 1.5p it would only raise about £1.14 million before expenses; say slightly more than £1 million after about 10% expenses. IMO this might not be enough to do everything that needs to be done if Wressle doesn't behave itself when it comes on stream. Maybe an EGM will be called to allow a larger placing, or I suppose some kind of production loan facility might be an alternative, as recently announced by Angus Energy. We smaller shareholders can only watch this space!

Hi Selfish. On reflection, I think you're quite right about UJO previously paying 30% of the NK well costs for their 20%. They did a 2 for 1 deal with Egdon for their initial 10%, and they later picked up further 10% for free, when Celtique (who previously had 50%) withdrew from the licence. Sorry to seem todoubt you, GP.

Hi SelfishMcNimby. That's an interesting" before and after" comparison. I've a feeling that UJO were previously paying 40% of the cost of the planned North Kelsey well for their 20%, but I can't now find the relevant RNS. I also reckon there isn't much appetite, and not too many candidates for these smaller onshore prospects. So, while they certainly won't be able to do any more "2 for 1" deals, Egdon and UJO may even struggle to get any "pay 30% to earn 20%" deals these days . This, IMO, is because so few of the small onshore players have any real cash these days - except for UJO.

Rubey, there is indeed plenty to be positive about here. But I think we should bear in mind that the average success rate for appraisal wells, which is what the B-1 well is, is only slightly better than 50% world-wide. Maybe it's a bit better in the North Sea and adjacent areas, but nothing here is a dead cert. This is why I feel we should be a bit cautious.

In my own defence Rubey I believe that I'm honourable, and I'm not on anybody's side, or against anybody on this board. I simply like to know what's going on geologically at WN because that's what I used to do professionally. The Brotherton is worth thinking about, IMO, even if you don't want to know about it. It has produced commercial hydrocarbons in a few places onshore, so I think it's relevant here. But I shan't waste their time asking the RBD team about it, honestly!