Member Info for GreyPanther

Hello Heid. You must have noticed that oil prices are down lately, and so are share prices around the world, not just at UJO. But it's not like you to show signs of losing the plot. Who on earth do you think I'm trying to fool, and in what way? I am (or was) a geologist, not an operations type, so it might be useful to look at what Manwell02, who seems to me to be very knowledgeable about drilling ops, said on Reabold's board at 16:37 on Thursday: Quote "I would say they are waiting on a part for the rig. The videos seem to be true, (I was sceptical about them this morning) the rig hasn’t moved since Sunday. Can be the only explanation as to why it hasn’t moved & why there’s still 24 stands of pipe in the hole & the crew are cleaning to pass the time”. It sounds like a reasonable explanation to me, unless your sources know differently.

Hi Selfish. I think that's a bit unfair. Not knowing anything about HullPete (or his tweets), I can't honestly see what's wrong with my requesting information. Just looking at what Manwell02 said a bit earlier, we can't possibly be stuck in the hole. But if he's correct about the bit and / or drill pipe being within the 13 3/8" casing at about 505m, then they are clearly not drilling or running casing at the moment. There are plenty of other things Rathlin might be doing, though, like circulating the hole clean before casing, or even rig maintenance. If we can't use this board to ask questions and exchange info, then what's it for? Do we want a constant eulogy on every aspect of what Rathlin does operationally? That wouldn't help anybody much, though it might make some investors feel more comfortable, I guess. Anyway, it's less than 4weeks since the well spudded, so it's a bit early to expect much real news, I suppose.

I'd be really interested to know if anybody, and by that I mean somebody who really knows what s/he is looking at, has seen any recent drone shots that would help us decide exactly what's going on at the B-1 well site. This might dispel some of the annoying rumours about stuck drill pipe and the like. And I don't mean someone looking at it from a mile away through a pair of old binoculars either! Has anyone seen anything useful on Twitter, perhaps, as I don't use 'em. I'm keen to know if the casing has been run yet. Thanks, GP

BH, l'll be happy if you continue to skim over what I say, or even ignore it completely. Just because you disagree with me doesn't make what I say wrong. Probably the reverse.

I still say 700 to 800 metres to go below the casing - which hasn't yet been set. Believe what you like Rubey, but I reckon we are currently at less than 1,600m and TD will be at more than 2,300m. These are drilled depths, not sub-sea depths.

Hi Selfish, I was actually reporting what's apparently being said on Twitter about recent drone footage from the well site. We can believe it or not, of course, and only time will tell if they are right. And anyway, it doesn't change what's down the hole, does it? I merely want us to be realistic about the timing, and we shouldn't be in too much of a hurry for news. Drilling always seem to take much longer than you would expect, in my experience anyway.

There's a recent posting on Reabold's LSE board that says:
"Mr Daniel Levi (Sinner) @BrokermanDaniel Oct 26
I’m hearing #WestNewton are circa 400mtrs from TD.
If so news circa 7days imho..."
I sincerely doubt its reliability, as there have also been comments there that the 9 5/8" casing hasn't been run yet. If that's true, and based on nearby wells, we must still have about 700 to 800 metres still to go once the casing has been set. So we might not get an RNS for rather more than 7 days, IMO.

BH, I am a shareholder, and I've said that before. You obviously don't like what I post; that's your privilege. Nevertheless, I'm sure that the 9 5/8 casing hasn't been run yet. So what's this "presence of testing equipment" all about please? Can you reliably identify it at the drill site on a recent shot? Unfortunately the casing is still stacked there, and I wish it wasn't.

Hi Manwell02. All this unofficial info certainly has to be taken with a lot of salt. The deviation probably won't make much difference to the ultimate result unless the well deviates off the carbonate shelf and into the salt basin, which shouldn't happen. But it's relevant for those who are waiting on the results. I'm assuming here that the B-1 well info on the OGA's website is reliable and fairly up to date, since it must have been provided by Rathlin, and probably fairly recently. The B-1 info on Twitter is much older, and seems to have been largely taken from Rathlin's 2015 application to the local council and / or the EA's 2016 approval for the B well site. I therefore think it may have been overtaken, at least in part, by Rathlin's more recent technical work. What the OGA deviation info says to me is that for every single metre of vertical depth to the reservoir(s), we will have to drill about 1.1 metres. This will slow things up a bit, perhaps by a couple of days by the time we get to TD, and it will increase the length of open hole which has to be cased off. The longer a deviated hole is open, the more difficult it can become to run the casing, although there must be ways of dealing with this. I don't know if the well site images on Twitter are up to date or reliable but, if they are, they don't seem to have run the 9 5/8”casing yet.

From some recently posted drone shots, it's possible that the casing hasn't been run yet, and that's potentially very useful information about the well on the OGA’s website for what they call Well L46/10- 2. In summary it states that B-1 is to be a deviated well with a planned TD at 2,058 metres below sea level, and a 2,316 metres measured / as drilled total depth below the rig floor, which is at 19.6m above sea level. From these figures you can, if you are so "inclined", calculate that the average deviation for the well will be slightly more than 26 degrees from vertical from the surface location, and that the offset to TD will be about 1,020 metres. This seems to be quite a long way, and they didn’t say in which direction the well was to be deviated. What do you think ?

There's some potentially useful information about the B-1 well on LSE’s ADVFN board. It was apparently taken from the OGA’s website for what they call Well L46/10- 2. In summary it statesthat B-1 is to be a deviated well with a planned TD at 2,058 metres below sea level, and at 2,316 metres measured depth below the rig floor, which is at 19.6m above sea level. From these figures you can estimate that the average deviation for the well will be slightly more than 26 degrees from the surface location, and that the offset to TD will be about 1,020 metres. This seems to be quite a lot, and they didn’t say in which direction the well was to be deviated. What do you think Manwell?

Rubey. Thanks, that's very helpful, and other views are welcome too please. Rathlin's seeing the cement returns would obviously solve my "volumetric issue". Personally speaking, I think they may be casing or cementing round about now, but can we be sure from what's been posted to date? I still think the jury is out on whether B-1 is a vertical or a deviated well. Rathlin might possibly wish to gather geological information about the KA reservoir as far away from the A site as possible. They have also said they will be drilling the Cadeby at its most optimal location, wherever that is. We can't assume it's directly below the B-site as its location was planned and agreed some years ago, I think in 2015/16.

Much of this discussion depends on whether they have run the 9 5/8” casing to the top of the Zechstein yet. If they haven't, they probably have about 1,000 metres of open hole still to case. I was assuming the hole wouldn't be an exact cylinder due to the spalling of rock fragments from the sides of the hole while drilling, so you probably couldn't do a simple calculation to determine the volume of required, but cement returns would obviously solve my arithmetic problem. If the casing hasn't been set /cemented yet, then I reckon we are about 10 to12 days to TD and final logging. On the other hand, if they have already set the casing and are drilling ahead today, they will still have about 8 to 10 days to TD and final logging. Personally speaking, I think they may be casing /cementing about now, but I'd like to see some drone footage so we can be sure. I think the jury is still out on whether the B-1 well is vertical or a deviated well. I think Rathlin might possibly wish to gather additional geological information about the KA reservoir as far away from the A site as possible, but they have also said they will be drilling the Cadeby at its most optimal location, wherever that is.

Hi Rubey. The answer to all this lies in whether they have run the 9 5/8” casing to the top of the Zechstein yet. If they haven't, they probably have about 1,000 metres of open hole still to case which won't be an exact cylinder due to the spalling of rock fragments from the sides of the hole while drilling, hence you can't do a simple mathematical calculation to determine the volume of cement required, you will need a caliper log to measure the volume. On the other hand, if they have already set the casing and ae drilling ahead today, they will still have about 10 days to TD and final logging. I think they should be casing about now, but I would still like to see some drone footage so we can be sure.

You might find this of interest. "My mate certainly doesn't work for Rathlin, but he has a lot of geological and other experience of exploration in Yorkshire. His take on what's going on at the moment was that we are most likely about to set the 9 5/8” casing at the top of the Zechstein section, probably in the Roxby Formation, which consists of mudstone and / or shale in this part of the world. Also, It wouldn't be out of the question for some logging to take place at this depth. Having probably just drilled through about 500 metres of Sherwood Sandstone, which he said can be hard going, Rathlin will want to get information about the hole size / volume so they can determine how much cement must be pumped to get a reliable casing job. He suggested that currently they would probably be at about 1,500 to 1,600 metres, but not to forget it could be a deviated well. Two wells were originally planned for the B site, but only one of them is likely be a vertical appraisal well. The other will presumably be deviated, but which one, he wasn't sure. He thought B-1 was quite likely to be deviated in order to maximise Rathlin's geological information away from the A site as soon as possible."

I'm with you and Mrs Oza on the KA. I wonder what she thinks about the Cadeby! We will all soon know, I hope.

Hello Guys. My mate certainly doesn't work for Rathlin, but he has a lot of geological and other experience of exploration in Yorkshire. His take on what's going on at the moment was that we are most likely about to set the 9 5/8” casing at the top of the Zechstein section, probably in the Roxby Formation, which consists of mudstone and / or shale in this part of the world. Also, It wouldn't be out of the question for some logging to take place first at this depth. Having probably just drilled through about 500 metres of Sherwood Sandstone, which he said can be hard going, Rathlin will want to get information about the hole size / volume so they can determine how much cement must be pumped to get a reliable casing job. He suggested that currently they would probably be at about 1,500 to 1,600 metres, but not to forget it could be a deviated well. Two wells were originally planned for the B site, but only one of them is likely be a vertical appraisal well. The other will presumably be deviated, but which one, he wasn't sure. He thought B-1 was quite likely to be deviated in order to maximise Rathlin's geological information away from the A site as soon as possible.

I've been looking back at the newsflow from the WN A-2 well. It spudded on 26 April '19 and the first news about the KA discovery came out on 17 June. It therefore took 52 days for the first official news to emerge. WN B-2 spudded on 5 Oct '20, so today we are only on day 18, and I reckon it could be a while yet before we hear any significant news. That's because no matter how fast you can drill or run casing into the well, the complete operation always seems to take a lot longer than you'd expect. My guesstimate is that it will beat least another 7 days before we are drilling the Zechstein KA section.

Hi Manwell02. I've been looking at the newsflow fron the WN A-2 well. It spudded on 26 April '19 and the first news about the KA discovery came out on 17 June. It therefore took 52 days for the first official news to emerge. WN B-2 spudded on 5 Oct '20, so we are currently only on day 18. I reckon it could be quite a while yet before we hear anything significant. That's because no matter how fast you can run casing or drill pipe into a hole, the complete drilling operation always sees take a lot longer than you'd expect. I'd stand by my guesstimate of another 7+ days before we are drilling the Zechstein KA section.

Hi Rubey, My posting yesterday of 10 days to the KA was merely a guess in the light of the talk about a Monday RNS. I still think this is unduly optimistic.