Member Info for GreyPanther

Woe is me! Back on the naughty step again for daring to have a technical opinion that is not a fully blown ramp. And it's only early January! Luckily for me I have quite a thick hide. Get it?

I was interested, or maybe even slightly excited, to see that someone has "marked (my) card a long time ago as have others - fact", and it's only early January .So it's back to the naughty step for me and all those daring to post a technical opinion. Luckily I have a thick hide but, to be on the safe side, perhaps I should post a 3p SP prediction. If that were to come to pass, UJO's market cap would then be slightly under £600 million. We can only live in hope!

Hello Folks. Please try to play nicely on this board in 2021! I've made it one of my very few New Year's resolutions not to be unkind, or at least not to make unnecessarily negative comments on the UJO board, or on any other board. So I hope I can keep it up - my resolution, that is, but I suspect this board will be the most challenging one..

A Happy New Year to all our so-called rampers and de-rampers. And, more particularly, I'd like to send greetings to our few remaining posters who have a technical opinion or some of their own research to share. That's if they have not already been censored or blocked in some other way. Genuine research has been a bit sparse lately, I must say, but that's possibly because it has been drowned out by all the sniping. So, best wishes from GP to all UJ shareholders in 2021, especially our LTHs.

And a Happy New(ish) Year to all our so-called rampers and de-rampers. More particularly, greetings to the few remaining RBD posters who have a technical opinion or some of their own research to share. The latter have been a bit sparse lately, and that's possibly because they've been drowned out by all the sniping. Best wishes to all RBD LTHs in 2021, I say.

Hi gkb47. You were asking about Frazer Lang's suitability as a possible director. I had a look at Companies House website and at what Union Jack said in Dec '18 when he was appointed to their board. As well as serving for a surprisingly short six months on UJ's board, he has been a director of Humber Oil (a non-operator) for the last three years, and of GP (Jersey) Limited for an unknown period. The last two companies are unlisted. However, Companies House shows that he is only 30 and is apparently resident in South Africa. So, to my thinking, he lacks sufficient operating experience, although he may well be a canny investor in small oil Co's

I couldn't really give a tinker's cuss if the extremely knowledgeable deemule has filtered me. What is it with some people on these boards? Are ONLY their often half-baked opinions to be heard, or can't some of us stand being disagreed with?

Hi Mirasol. How true! I don't really expect the Angus team to be running the show in the event of a merger. That's if one ever happens. Unfortunately there aren't many competent "Small O&G Co" management teams out there, and many of the small oilers are almost bust thanks to the efforts of the less competent ones. In fact, I can't yet see which company might act as a nucleus for a merged entity, except possibly Rathlin / Reabold or maybe UJO / Egdon?
Hi to gkb47 too. You'd possibly be surprised at where I'm having a dabble these days. That's investment-wise, of course! You are quite right about the Langs, UJO and Forest Nominees. FN had a very large holding in UJO at one time which was sold soon after Frazer Lang left UJO's board. Did he fall, or was he pushed, I wonder?

Thanks Gallifreyan. I've done a bit of digging too, and there seems to be a GP Jersey / Forest Nominees link to Humber Oil. Humber is a partner in Egdon's Biscathorpe discovery and was formerly involved in West Newton. I think G.P. Jersey / Forest Nominees' former shareholding in Reabold was part of the "cash and shares" proceeds for the sale of Humber's 16.7% interest in West Newton to Reabold in July '20. Those shares were held for only about 6 months, before being been sold in mid December, possibly to fund the recent Angus purchase. The apparently related timings of these two transactions may only be a coincidence, of course, but is there something more interesting going on? I've no idea what - but maybe a planned merger of several onshore O&G players might be a possibility?

I'm with with RNSTranslator on the likely timing of a new CPR. IMO the most logical time is after the EWTs. If they don't have these results the new CPR would almost certainly have to be revised, depending on what flow rates they get. This is because these will affect the estimated oil and gas recovery factors. In addition, any technically competent company thinking of buying any or all of the WN asset is unlikely to place too much reliance on a CPR by a third party, no matter how competent or when it was compiled, because it's a "seller's document". No doubt they'll be keen to read it (if available) but they will carry out their own detailed work before making a proposal, let alone a formal offer. I'm reasonably confident about this being the case because I went to quite a few data rooms when I was working.

Forest Nominees now own about 6% of Angus, so it would be good to know their intentions. I suspect, though, that we won't know until they sell out to another institution, or dribble them out if / when our SP improves . IMO they won't be long term Angus holders. They previously had chunky positions in Union Jack and then in Reabold, and I don't think they held either for very long.

Hi Mirasol. I'd agree that blue moons are rare , but I think there may have been one at B'thorpe.

Non-operating partners often carry out their own technical studies, if only as a check on the operator's work. So I'd be surprised if UJO weren't doing just that at B'thorpe and presumably at W Newton too. I don't understand what's meant by ".... Biscathorpe appears to be flanked by leaking hydrocarbons". If you're suggesting they've leaked somewhere else (presumably not to surface at the moment, as no oil seeps are seen in this area) that can only be a guess. How would they know unless they'd drilled nearby too?

It’s worth looking at Egdon’s numerous 2015 RNS concerning the Wressle discovery, and the testing of the three (Wingfield, P***stone and Ashover) intervals. However, iI seems that only the Ashover Grit is being put into production at present, and that flowed at only 80 bopd on test. Here’s the text of their 22 Oct ’15 RNS
"Egdon Resources plc (AIM:EDR) is pleased to provide an update on operations and plans for the Wressle oil and gas discovery located to the east of S****horpe in Lincolnshire on licence PEDL180 where Egdon operates with a 25% interest. As announced previously, it had been the PEDL180 joint venture (JV) partners’ intention to undertake further well test operations on both the Ashover Grit and *****tone Flags intervals. However, since completion of the Extended Well Test (“EWT”) operations in early September 2015, the group has completed a detailed review of the data gathered to date and are now sufficiently comfortable to continue working towards compiling a field development plan (“FDP”) without requiring further time-consuming and costly testing operations. As previously reported, flow rates from the Ashover Grit measured in the initial testing phase (80 barrels of oil per day (“bopd”)) were affected by localised near well bore formation damage (high “Skin” factor) and so are not representative of the flow rates that could be attained from this interval. Reservoir engineering analyses of the well test pressure and production data indicates that initial production rates in excess of 500bopd could be anticipated if the effects of the “Skin” can be successfully countered. It is therefore the JV’s intention that plans for the development of Wressle will include a comprehensive suite of operations and procedures, designed to mitigate the impact of the “Skin” on production rates, which form part of the initial workover programme for the well to prepare it for long-term production ........
Production from Wressle is currently expected to be phased, with initial development focused on the Ashover Grit oil reservoir.”

If you look back at the relevant RNS, and it was some years ago, you'll find that the 700 bopd (barrels of oil per day) was actually 700 boepd (barrels of oil equivalent). As far as I can recall it was calculated for all three reservoirs in which oil and gas were found, and one reservoir tested quite a lot of gas along with the oil. The anticipated 500 bopd flow rate relates to only the reservoir they have permission to produce from, so I suggest you don't hold your breath waiting for a much higher rate.

I could well be proved wrong within hours, but I don't honestly think that either RBD or UJO really want to sell (or even farm-out) just a small part of their WN interest at the moment. If any of it is sold in the short term, it seems more likely to me that RBD might sell just their 16.665% working interest. And maybe UJO won't want to do the same thing just yet. However, if Rathlin were to sell out, I reckon everyone else (RBD and UJO) will probably have to be part of the sales process, willy nilly. I think this because if a new player joins the group by buying a controlling equity in WN and leaves RBD, UJO and Rathlin with only minority interests, they could be dragged along / out-spent by the new party who will have their own agenda and appraisal and / or development timetable. I'm sure that RBD and UJO already know that this wouldn't be a comfortable experience.

That's quite a tricky one. RBD presumably have control of Rathlin UK, so can insist on whatever kind of distribution that suits them best, and would have the greatest tax efficiency. This could be via a share buy back by Rathlin from all their shareholders including Connaught (only CGT payable), rather than via a dividend payable by Rathlin to RBD and all the other holders, which would presumably attract CT. I guess it would depend on RBD's tax position on the day.

HI cperkin. We can'tknow what the hydrocarbon composition is until during or after the flow testing, as they need some surface samples to analyse. But when will that be? I can't see them getting back to the site to test the recent B-1Z well until a few weeks into the new year. Nothing ever happens in oil and gas sooner than you might expect

I too have looked at the info on Reabold which, as Persimmon says, is a public company and on Rathlin Energy UK (a private company) on the Companies House website. From my POV, I haven't seen anything that bothers me too much, or that I didn't already largely know. I'm obviously not an accountant but he also said "The first an investment company, the second an operator. That's all I'll say for the moment". This is a completely accurate statement, but we already knew this. So why is Persi. being unusually reticent? Is s/he worried that either Rathlin or Reabold won't have enough cash to carry out their parts of the current programme? I'm not at all worried about that because Rathlin were pre-funded by RBD and had £18.1 million in cash at the end of 2019. And I recognise that they have had to find 66.67% of the WN B-1 and B-1Z costs since then (say £4 to £5 million net to Rathlin). RBD also have enoght cash (£6.7 million at the end of 2019) to pay for their 16.665% working interest (say £1.0 to 1.25 million net). So is there something else we should be worrying about? Not really, IMO. The porosity info that's been released make me think that B-1Z should flow extremely well on test.

Hi bumblebee1. May I suggest reading UJO's 26 November Wressle RNS where it says "The mobilisation of the workover rig will take place immediately in the New Year, with the workover being completed and initial oil flows anticipated later in January 2021". We can't still be expecting the first Wressle revenue for at least a month, can we?. And for those knocking DB and Nighthawk, I made some real money on it, but I got out quite early on.