Member Info for GreyPanther

Union Jack have today announced the purchase from Humber Oil of their 15% Biscathorpe interest. This increases UJO's interest from 30% to 45% and it removes Humber , who seem to have been a rather reluctant partner, from the licence. It also gives a current value to the whole project of £6.67 million when the £1 million purchase price is "grossed up". This is probably only about twice what the Biscathorpe-2 well cost to drill, as in June '20 UJO paid £115,000 to acquire a 3% interest from another partner. This was the equivalent of £3.83 million grossed up at the time, so it could possibly indicate what the cumulative licence costs were then. For a total outlay of £1.0 million (assuming planning and other licence consents are granted at some future date) UJO have significantly increased their interest in Biscathorpe’s 57 metre Dinantian oil discovery, and now own more than Egdon's 35.8% who are the licence operator. Something similar happened last year at Wressle, where UJO now own 40% and Egdon only 30%. The Dinantian oil column at Biscathorpe has an upside of 36 million barrels in place, so it’s quite large for an onshore discovery. To it can be added the Westphalian prospective resource at Bisc which has an upside of close to 7 million barrels of potentially recoverable oil. So while I’m pleased to see UJO using some of its large cash pile in this way, it does draw attention to Egdon's currently much weaker cash position.

The increase in our interest from 30% to 45% is great news. It not only removes Humber from the licence, who Egdon seem to have found a difficult partner, but it gives a current value to the whole project of £6.67 million. This is probably only about twice what Biscathorpe-2 cost to drill because last June UJO paid £115,000 to acquire a 3% interest. At the time, this was the equivalent of £3.83 million grossed up, and this may indicate what the licence costs were up to then. For a total outlay of £1.0 million (assuming planning and other consents are granted at a future date) we've significantly increased our interest in Biscathorpe’s 57 metre Dinantian oil discovery, and now own more of it than the licence operator, as Egdon only have 35.8%. The Dinantian oil column has an upside of 36 million barrels in place, so it’s quite big for onshore. To it can be added the Westphalian prospective resource which has an upside of close to 7 million barrels of potentially recoverable oil. So I’m extremely happy to see UJO using some of its cash pile in this way. It gives us a significantly increased interest in a promising asset which can be set alongside our WN and Wressle interests.

Thanks; I was wondering who CNCB and Sunderland Holdings were. I couldn't find them on the UK Companies House website, so I assumed they might be Connaught's Canadian holding companies for their Rathlin shates. By the way, according to the OGA's website the ownership of PEDL 183 is Rathlin: 66.67%, RBD@ 16.665% and UJO: 16.665%. You can find this info at: https://itportal.ogauthority.co.uk/eng/fox/oga-report/PED300X/onshore-licence/?LICENCE_TYPE=PEDL&LICENCE_NO=183

TonyB1, Sorry, I was having a "senior moment" as I now realise you were talking about Rathlin and not RBD.

Hi TonyB1. RBD have issued a further 350 million shares to Humber Oil since then (July '20). I think there are now about 7,097 million RBD shares in issue, so you may need to adjust your % slightly.

Being un-listed, Rathlin don't have to announce anything if they don't want to. But they do make occasional news releases, if only to keep the WN residents happy, the most recent being on 10 Dec '20. I'm stating the obvious here, but RBD and UJO must, both being listed, issue an RNS whenever there's something newsworthy to report. They both usually say almost the same about WN as Rathlin, give or take a few words. It's a shame that our other assets have produced almost no news lately, whereas UJO have had quite a lot to say, especially regarding their imminent Wressle production start-up with Egdon. I wonder sometimes if this issue is what has affected the two companies' relative valuations, with RBD having a mkt cap of only about £43 million today, and UJO just a little less at £37 MM. Regarding the ownership of Rathlin, about 43.7% is not owned by RBD, but is owned by Connaught, some other private holders plus another II, as far as I can recall. You can check this out by looking up Rathlin Energy (UK) Ltd on Companies House website, search under "Filing History", then look for the latest "Confirmation Statement". This will show shareholder changes over the previous year.

Hi Serif. The FinnCap report is only six / seven months old but, having seen the latest Wressle RNS, I was wondering if they were wrong about Wressle producing from both the Ashover and Wingfield reservoirs, or if their earlier opinion has been overtaken by more recent events. So I asked a mate who is peripherally involved in a non-operating capacity for his thoughts. He was certain that only the Ashover Grit will be re-perforated at present, and that the two other horizons will be shut off with a cement "squeeze". I therefore think it might be wise to stay with only 500 bopd x Europa's 30% for now. This is very valuable for us with oil over $55 and the Wressle operating cost probably less than $10 per barrel. Our 150 bopd net x ($55 -$10) is a useful $6,750 / £5,000 operating profit each day.

Where are these additional 200 bopd to come from? The Ashover Grit production consent is limited to 500 bopd. The other two reservoirs are not currently being put on stream as Egdon haven't applied to develop them. So they don't have the required consents to do it yet. I have to say that 700 bopd is "pie in the sky" right now, but wecan always hope not, I guess.

Is this about Premier? If so, why post here unless you believe that the newly merged PMO / Chrysaor (Harbour) will want to go onshore? If so, I doubt it personally.

Speculating about where Brokerman Dan gets his info is all very well, but we shouldn't simply assume that Union Jack is responsible every time it happens. BMD has previously leaked detailed info from a Reabold placing document to which I don't suppose UJO was ever a party. As for the leaked Wressle RNS info, there are two other partners, Egdon & Europa. Do they share any professional advisors with UJO? I suspect not. The two UJO placing leaks are another matter, of course, and an extremely serious one. I assume UJO will have investigated them even if we don't know the outcome. If asked, I'd put my money on the leaks occurring via someone in a broker's office. The source of the info might be a person who has a long list of potential investors in share placings, but I sincerely hope it's not one of UJO's advisors doing it twice. IMO it's much more likely to be one of the potential places who knows BMD for example. UJO just need to know who it was and to make sure they don't get the info next time - if there is one. Changing their broker would send a signal, but would it be the right one?

Hi Gallifreyan. My info on Frazer Lang came from Union Jack's 4 Dec '18 RNS when he joined their board. It said that FL was a director of Humber Oil and of GP Jersey at the time. He's still a director of Humber but I'm not sure about GPJ as, not being strictly a British company, it's not shown on Companies House website.

I can't remember where or when I heard this, and I can't see it in any recent RNS, but I think the Wressle oil will go by road tanker only a few miles down the road to the Welton oil field. This is where Egdon send most of their other UK onshore oil, and I recall that there is a formerly BP operated pipeline from there to a refinery on the coast.

Gallifreyan. You are right about FN holding most of their interest in UJO for over a year, and I'm sorry to seem to have ignored your posting about this matter. A year is a very long time for most IIs, as it is in politics. But it seems quite a short time to me when you consider that Frazer Lang was on Union Jack's board from Dec '18 to June '19, which is about half of that period, and he seems to have resigned very shortly before the bulk of FN's stake was sold. Presumably he would have been an "insider" for much of the time he was a UJ board member. So for much of FN's investment period, they couldn't do much else but sit there. IMO, of course.

I wouldn't regard Forest Nominees' 8.04% holding as being in "sticky hands". They don't seem to have hung on to their previous holdings in either Union Jack or Reabold for very long.

Hi Serif. The Ashover Grit is the only reservoir that is currently going to be put on stream. The Wingfield Flags and the Pen'stone reservoir are both interesting, but theya're not currently being developed by Egdon.

Hi Crocqman. There's a link between Forest Nominees, GP Jersey and Humber Oil but I don't know the details, so I've nothing very useful to add to my earlier comments. However, I’m now wondering if Forest might ask Angus for a board seat when they reach a 10% holding. As well as Forest’s previous UJO and RBD involvements, something odd seems to have occurred between Humber Oil and Egdon over the former's involvement in the Biscathorpe-2 well, but the details weren't published. In Egdon’s prelim 2020 results which came out today they said: “On 18 June 2020 a confidential settlement was reached with Humber Oil and Gas in respect of PEDL253 litigation and monies were received on 25 August 2020”. Maybe there’s no smoke without a fire, but I can't yet read the smoke signals.

Be careful what you wish for regarding Forest's shareholding. Forest were significant holders of Union Jack, and I think these were entirely market purchases (presumably as with us), and then of Reabold (where they received RBD shares as part of the consideration for the sale of Humber's 16.67% interest in West Newton). In both cases, when they were able to sell they seem to have sold their shares over a very short period of time.

Hi RNSTranslator. Thank you, that's very helpful. An initial Wressle production rate at only your suggested 300 to325 bopd yesterday would mean that Egdon's 30% share might be only 90 to 98 bopd, and slowly decline thereafter. I sincerely hope it's better than that but I'm certainly not holding my breath since we don't really know too much yet on that score. However, with Brent at nearly $54 per barrel today, less the operating costs (I'm guessing $5 per barrel to truck the oil to a refinery, plus whatever sum is needed for well site ops), Wressle could still add about 50% to their daily production up to July '20 and a significantly increased income. Let's hope, along with the £1.05 million convertible loan note just announced, they will soon have enough cash to repay UJO's £1 million, plus the field start up consideration, and do all the other things they need to do on all their other licences.

That's really good news. Does anyone have an opinion on what the Ashover Grit will actually produce once it's put on production, either with or without a pump? Some investors on the UJO board have been talking about 500 bopd, but Wressle only made about 80 bopd on test. As it's the only reservoir that's curerntly being put into production,IMO they'll need some very successful remedial work to get just the one reservoir up to 500 bopd.

I see from today's RNS that Egdon's annual results to 31 July '20 will be published tomorrow. How will they will look? They probably still need to raise some further cash, IMO. This might depend on how / when Wressle performs.