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At the moment this board is worse than watching the House of Commons. Nothing will happen to SP until there is real news, when there is then we will know if it’s a Strong BUY or SELL, until then keep your powder dry
I know that many of us long term holders (and I hold shares bought at £3.90) the “collapse” of the SP this week only adds to the full range of negative emotions shown so clearly on this message board. However as I see it 3 facts remain, 1) The oil is there and at some point the world will need at least some of it, 2) PMO has to make debt reduction their priority, this is not new news and so will have impact on FID timing. Our hands are tied but we are where we are so no point going over what a bad partner they are and 3) we should expect little news this side of Brexit being resolved as many contracts will be in USD and with the £ going all over the place it’s harder to secure value. As a result we shouldnt be surprised if FID is late Spring ‘19, and so with no news, oil price falling and Brexit uncertainty 20p could be a reality. Patience needed, this is an investment stock not a trading stock for PI’s in my view...
Can RKH announce their FID in advance or separate to PMO announcing theirs? ie can the RKH board say "we approve and we are ready" separately, clearly understanding that any decision to sanction would have to be joint to enable it to actually happen?
Don't you think that political will to support a new "fossil fuel" development will be hard to come by, and the environmental concerns in such a "pristine" location may well ensure this stays in the ground regardless of POO? if POO rises "too" high will this not accelerate "greener" alternative? There is enough of the black stuff in Middle East still. Just not convinced this will ever come out of the ground, regardless of the POO. Getting tied up with PMO may be something that is regretted for ever.. we may have missed the boat by a couple of years?.. Hope not....
Today’s climate change report from the UN being discussed across the BBC may result in this oil staying put?? Hope note but it seems like the window for realising this asset is getting smaller?... or am I being too pessimistic?..
I agree that post Brexit an announcement of the opening of a new oil field would be a good economic boost and so worth having “up your sleeve” until after March. Don’t agree with the Scots having another indyref, certainly not in next 10 years.
Does there need to be such a time gap between FID and project sanction (currently slated for 2019) i.e. can FID slip into next year (as project is large and complex and securing funding therefore not easy) and as a result FID and sanction simultaneous? We may need to hold our breath a bit longer on this one.....??
S, v v helpful post thank you!.. I first bought in at over £3.00 and continued to buy right down to 20p, and am prepared to wait, good solid points in your post, and it appears like lots of positive action “behind the scenes” As you say FID is key for SP movement and confidence
Whilst all that is true, political mood and “people’s mood” is towards green energy and the environment, so whatever the rationale about opening up a new oil field will it ever get going? What action will the environmentalist movement take to stop it (take greenpeace v shell in Seattle). That with RKH own statements that first oil could be several years from sanction (ie 2023) and RKH total reliance on a debt filled PMO, it’s easy to see why investors are not running to us, despite some vain attempts by some at “ramping”. Also any chance we can keep this board for proper debate not playground insult throwing?