Member Info for Grayling

Mingingman. Apologies if I have missed something, but why is there only one day left to trade AZN due to the bank holiday on Monday the 26th. Are the markets closed Friday as well?

steveho, That is the whole point. They cannot now raise the bid higher than £55 as to do so will breach the UK takeover code rules. End of.

It's over for the forseeable future as the Pfizer board have tied themselves into a £55 final offer and under the takeover rules they cannot now increase this further (Wall St Times have a very good piece detailing the implications of the UK Takeover Code in restricting Pfizer's actions with respect to the current bid). They have also made it abundantly clear they will not go hostile. Surprise is that the price has recovered a tad since this morning's plunge, but that may be short lived as the cold hard truth dawns and the short sellers start to pitch in.

The Dow is running this show now and the FTSE will just follow as was the case yesterday. Price will drift until NY opening and then the important players will decide what they think of a £50 offer. If it drops they think it is fairly priced if it soars then the converse is true.

The AZN stock trading on the NYSE at the moment is up 3.1% and it went up very suddenly at 11.30am US time. This might have coincided with the UK close and just been enough to tip the price upward. Do the Yanks know something that we do not?

I have a live prices feed through Google Finance (its free to register). The share price has already dropped back on that from £48.15 to £47.92. Still up by 2.75% but why it moved again after the closing price was set in stone everywhere else is beyond me. I wonder what tomorrow morning will bring?

I guess the huge number of late trades at £48.15 resulting in a hike of £1.51 at close of play may be something to do with this? I have never seen so many transactions go though after the uncrossing trade!

Do the fairly constant stream of 'form 8.5" declarations on the RNS feed tell us anything about what is happening? They seem to consist of both buys and sells and reflect organisations with over 1% stakes in AZN. The bodies are the usual suspects (Investec, Morgan Stanley etc). The interested party is given as Pfizer Inc. Are they selling a stake built up previously or buying more shares in preparation for hostile action? No shorts or derivatives are declared, just straight buys and sells.

I agree with Buzle. The turnaround time plus the extra cash needed to buy into the RI makes this dead money as far as I am concerned. I bought some more at 87p following the Irish news and sold my entire holding at 105p on the rebound getting out with a very small profit (2.66% over the two years I held). I parked the money in Astra Zeneca and it has already gone up 13%, plus the dividend is due later this month and the yield is good. I learned my lesson from holding onto RBS for far too long hoping for a recovery before finally realising I was wasting time and money. I got out and bought NG. Again the divi has moved me along quite nicely since then. My rule is no divi no hold!

So the share has risen on the news that RSA are likely to sell a (presumably) profitable Canadian business for approx £200M. Aside from this being in the ball park for the Irish losses (original estimate) I do not see the sale of a slice of RSAs non-UK business as good news for this share in the long run. Unless of course there is no rights issue and a very fleeting divi cut or suspension. I am happy to be out and watch from the sidelines, but if tempted to buy shares in a UK insurer again would I choose RSA?

All I can say is good luck with that! This has underperformed the index for a long long time on the pipeline gloom, but even given that things may not change very quickly (the nature of the beast) sentiment certainly has.

This is dead in the water as an income stock. Got out on the Ireland news with only a very small profit and parked the money in AZN. I may buy in again, but only after the inevitable price tumble on the rights issue and dilution and only if they make encouraging noises about restoring the divi. Also the longer these storms go on (and it could be another month or two) the worse non-life insurance business looks. As stated before RSA do not have a rich benefactor to tide them over. Finally, The market reacted positively to Hester and given time and support he will probably turn things round. Its just that some of the things that happened on his watch at RBS regarding GRG may yet be the subject of intense public and even legal scrutiny and take some of the gloss of Hester's image.

Looking at the scenes of devastation in the west country and elsewhere over the past few weeks (and which have happened since RSA warned that these events would impact the bottom line) one wonders what the damage to non-life insurers such as RSA will be? The footage gives some indication of the number of cars and larger vehicles that will be written off by water damage not to mention properties, equiment and business losses. Hester's appointment seems to have calmed the markets judging by RSA's mini rally, but the Irish problem and resulting capital shortfall remain. He is a proven firefighter and not afraid to take tough decisions, but I am expecting this will get worse before it gets better.

That may be so, but the fact is that the Espirito Santo piece also ends with the following summary "Two investment analysts have rated the stock with a sell rating, nine have issued a hold rating and four have given a buy rating to the company. The stock currently has a consensus rating of “Hold” and an average price target of GBX 46.89 ($0.77)."

From the McKinsey report on winners and losers over the years of quantitative easing "Possibly the biggest losers have been insurance companies, which have been unable to earn as much on their investments as they are obliged to pay to long-term savers. McKinsey worries that many of these would be driven out of business, that "their survival would be threatened", if the epoch of low interest rates continues for several more years. Ironic then given RSA's status as the UKs biggest non-life insurer ie. immune from the need to pay "long term savers" that they are in so much trouble at present. Relative to the life companies they should be making out like bandits!

Bought these for the wife's ISA telling her they were steady and boring. Panic set in when I saw the starting price this am but luckily back in 2012 her buy in price was 101p so not a disaster yet. At least they have not cut the divi again so come the 22nd it just means more shares for the pot.