Member Info for Grayling

I am hoping for a cut rather than axing it, but it depends if East wants to front load all the bad news. Better to axe it now and get it over and done with rather than death by a thousand cuts. It may depress the price short term but in my opinion recovery of RR is not tied to whether or not they chose to pay a dividend. Rather it depends on how effective East's restructuring is and how this is perceived by the City and big investors like ValueAct, Woodford et al.

I would not be surprised if the dividend was axed altogether. The yield is not particularly great anyway. if purely divi income is your thing then stick to NG. PHNX BA. et al. Purely and simply this is a recovery play for capital gain now with the added spice of the ValueAct stake to chivvy things along. I wonder how long it will be before Woodford chips in with his opinion on the company? I notice he is now having a right go at Witty over the poor performance of GSK suggesting that they sell of their consumer health/vaccines business and concentrate on core activities.

I hold both AZN and GSK and GSK has been a major laggard compared with its peer. If it were not for the dividend (and the SD next year) I would be tempted to sell and punt the money on a recovery for RR or RDSB.

Defence spend is underpinning rise in both RR. and BA. today. Long may it continue!

I agree and interesting analysis. CWC just put out an RNS giving the value of the three options to CWC shareholders. As this piece points out the CWC board recommendation (option 1) gives the highest immediate return to the CWC holder with a value per share if transacted today (23rd Nov) of 81.03p per share. I suppose this figure is bound to fluctuate with the LG share price and the exchange rate. For the moment I am holding. I got in in the low 60s so inclined to hold and take the full value of the TO at the time rather than bale out earlier.

As predicted a lot of UK based holders who have been in a long time are selling out as they do not want to hold US paper and have better things to do with their not inconsiderable profits. This may drift lower between now and the Q2 2016 completion date, but one thing is certain on that day CWC will be worth 86.82p a share, so don't worry if you need that extra little bit of profit, it will come. Myself I am not averse to holdings on the DOW as they are allowed within my ISA. I still have the Verizon shares given to me as part of the Vodafone deal and they pay a divi and have held up well. Malone is highly committed to capital growth for shareholders (rather than paying dividends) so you never know, holding LG paper could be a good ride for a while.

AstraZeneca and Sanofi to work on drug development. Sanofi and AstraZeneca have said they will exchange 210,000 chemical compounds in a deal aimed at widening the diversity of the chemicals they can use to develop new drugs. The compounds exchanged have been selected based on differences from those already existing in their own libraries, the companies said in a statement. Each company will be able to research the compounds for use in any disease without restrictions. There are no payments associated with the agreement, either upfront or if a compound becomes part of a successful clinical candidate.

Maybe, but getting in before them is even better. I am well aware that this is a long term recovery play and have no worries about that. I have 7-10 years before any of the small slice of cash I have tied up in shares will be needed and then it will be run down only gradually.

Well like it or not the increased ValueAct holding has certainly sparked interest in RR shares. I bet (hope) there are a good few short sellers out there nursing big losses. Roll on £6 and my break even.

BAE Systems continued its upward trend, buoyed by the French military response to Friday’s events. Analysts at Berenberg said: “Security tensions have escalated sharply, and as western leaders begin to demonstrate a shift in posture we expect continued strengthening of sentiment for the defence sector, underpinned by a hardening of defence policies.”. Some of this must rub off on RR surely?

"and too many times I've seen top management cull the core engineering which devastates the long term business". Can you give an example of where the latter has occurred in the case of a FTSE 100 company of Rolls Royce's stature then?

Kepler Cheuvreux reduces RR target price to 470p from 660p. Who they? never heard of em. Now Goldman Sachs represents capitalism red in tooth and claw and de man at GS he say 711p! who to believe?

Opinions should not be either popular or unpopular because that is all they are and yours has equal value with any other. I tend to ignore any strong statements positive or negative and work solely on the facts. Clearly a fall from about £12 in early 2014 to the low of £5 ish last week has been fairly catastrophic, particularly if you bought in over that time. However, I am happy with my average of £6 ish, so short away as I will only add. This is not 1971 and RR is not going bust. A long term hold for me now.

I have no idea where people are getting the idea that this is an all cash offer or that it represents a price of 86.82p PLUS a cash divi of 3p per share. The RNS clearly states: The CWC Directors intend unanimously to recommend that CWC Shareholders elect to receive the Recommended Offer. The CWC Directors do not intend to recommend either the First Dual Share Alternative or the Second Dual Share Alternative. Under the Recommended Offer, CWC Shareholders shall be entitled to receive, for each CWC Share: a number of New Liberty Global Class A Ordinary Shares as determined by the Exchange Ratio, such number not to be lower than 0.007921 and not to exceed 0.008301; and a number of New Liberty Global Class C Ordinary Shares as determined by the Exchange Ratio, such number not to be lower than 0.019391 and not to exceed 0.020321. CWC Shareholders who validly elect to receive the Recommended Offer and who are on the register of members of CWC at 6 p.m. (London time) on the Business Day immediately prior to the Effective Date will also be entitled to receive the Special Dividend. On the basis described above, the consideration under the Recommended Offer represents: an indicative value of 86.82 pence2 per CWC Share, INCLUDING the Special Dividend. So it is paper plus cash in the form of the dividend. The "C" shares may also be convertible to cash (a la Rolls Royce) but it is clearly NOT an all cash offer nor is it worth more than 86.82p per share.

I think that to get the full value here you are going to have to hold. Many smaller investors in the UK will be looking to exit before the deal goes through to avoid holding US paper and may also be sitting on big profits as is (many will have been holding from sub 40p). Thus there will be selling pressure in advance of the TO and it may not reach its max. The complexity of the potential deal also does not help. However the special dividend is worth about 3.8% at today's price alone.

Looks like businesses with exposure to military hardware are all up this am (BAE as well as Rolls). Sad, but a fact of life that the ongoing turmoil in the ME will lead to increased spending on military aircraft etc.

We will find out, but if Centrica is anything to go by it will be some time after the deed is done ether way.

No the last date on which they have to make a decision to offer is the 19th Nov, which just happens to coincide with the CWC ex dividend date. The latter coincidence prompted the company to put out a statement to the effect that if the Liberty Global bid did not go ahead that day they would pay the interim dividend as planned. Obviously if LG actually make an offer, this would not be the case.

It would be interesting to know what Woodford's take on all of this is. Has he been buying more or has he got out as he did when the going got tough at Centrica?

Well we have another 6 days or so to await the outcome of the possible takeover. Anyone have any thoughts as to how this might go? In particular, is it possible to glean anything at all from the avalanche of RNS form 8.3/8.5 postings by both parties since the talks were announced?