Member Info for Gourd

Nothing on twitter etc.. assuming someone got wind of decent Apta results up in Canada or maybe just a Thursday jolly session after all the shoe gazing of late? Fingers crossed big time for June-July mind.. Those early miners who dug some holes in El Cedro (and elsewhere) were not fools and didn't do all that for a few g/t did they?! That might be the average across the Porphyry (we hope) but got to think there might be better zones in amongst it either veiling around the cupola or across the larger fractures. Time will tell but my guess it is will take a few holes to really understand including a deep one down the middle so little bit of patience required. One thing for sure they will find gold just comes down to those old friends grade and tonnage.. GLA

I think someone else mentioned this a while back and I touched on it in my last post (I am a daily lurker watching the shenanigans unfold but post very sparsely!), anyway, point being these types of P140 licensing deals usually take lots of timmmme. I still dont know why IMM thought they could seal a deal in 2025 unless it was one they already had in the pipeline at a lower level just for Lupozor/Lupus BUT realistically the learn-ed market indicates 6-15 months from my very lazy Google research so end 2026 ish.

Usual steps of engagement we know have happened (meet, greet, NDA), then some due diligence (hinted at strongly by Tim 2 in their March webcast (Doo diligence), then some negotiations to get heads of terms and finally nitty gritty details and signing. Stages 1-2 could/should take c. 3-8 months from initiation (Sept-Oct ish) so should be through due diligence end Q2 2026 (now ish +/- a bit, probably plus being AIM!). Therefore I am looking for a change in signalling from the CEO to start using words like "negotiating".. might be subtle and not use the exact words but if we get that coded message the game is very much on for a Q3-Q4 deal. The final two stages should be 3-7 months so Sept-Dec ish completion.

Anything up to end of year entirely possible or even longer if special circumstances so I am rationing my expectations and excitement for a long wait but I don't think that is too bad a purgatory for a multibag return. I think publication will come around deal time so maybe 3-6 months from now if they can fast track it being "truly game changing!" or whatever it is they said). The Lancet will fast track for true game changers if the science is clear and undisputed. Next stage of the patent should be sooner. Someone (real/troll who knows) on ADVFN mentioned Roche as a suiter which I initially didn't think credible but looking in their pipeline they do have existing Lupus drugs so maybe not sooooo silly afterall...no smoke without fire and all that.

For background, I leapt in just after the big spike last Sept which was well intentioned but way too eager in hindsight on Tim 1's words which turned out to be nonsense. Have steadily built my holding and averaged down since as I can see the science looks solid and this could be an amazing story if they can pull it off. I'm not keen at what they did with the fund raise or KapiG but at least that provides a little time and insulation in a worse case scenario for P140 to avoid a total wipeout. Tick tock goes the seemingly endless deal clock and all our patience! GLA and see you for the celebration party if it ever gets organised, G.

This isn't AI btw! From my experience 4,400m of standard gauge core will be about 24-28 tonnes for full core at roughly 6kg/m for quartzite or 6-7 tonnes for quarter core. Quarter core is more likely for the spot and composite assays (half kept for further studies, quarter for the ministry and quarter for pulping. If they have a rock saw at the first lab which I am sure they will, they should be able to get all the half or quartered samples on a single truck easily. Its 4,000 highway miles to Medellin up the coast, but doable in a couple of weeks one way for a typical truck provided they can get pre-clearance through the various borders. That isnt a given but Chile and Peru shouldn't be too bad being mining countries. Not sure about Ecuador. Cost, maybe a few $10ks max so that is what I would be doing if the delays are likely to go on and on. I suppose the lab will be saying "almost ready..almost ready" stringing them out so they think ah we may as well leave it there. Also likely they might be running batches, but not the full set so OMI waiting for all the data before they can issue some kind of formally compliant update. They can't just say "we found x which was great in the first core" and leave us to extrapolate to the entire area as there are rules against that. I think storing up for one big all encompassing EP juicy news item now they have the options in place right?! You would wouldn't you if you were Brad and Louis? Personally, I am really liking the look of El Cedro. That for me is the nearer-term golden egg in terms of getting well out of the 20p zone (upwards;-).

GLA.

Just a thought, the next stages of patent application will result in publication of the p140 patent to all and sundry. P140 is protected by the submittal date so no one can come in and say they thought of it first unless they themselves already have an identical patent pending which should show up in the search report which is clean in the UK at least so that's a good start. But publication is coming..

The date the info is published is to some extent controlled by IMM and they can defer if they want as there is no short term fixed schedule other than it slowing down the eventual patent award. They should already have the PCT international search underway (astonishing if not, as cost is nominal given the importance), if that reveals clearance, then they need to decide whether to publish their own paper then the main patent publication route or vice versa or in parallel. Either way, the P140 story will be in the public domain soon, so just a question of how they manage that release as all eyes will be on it especially if it is through a notable journal (please let it be the Lancet or Nature and not the "Isle of Wight medi chronicle quarterly" no disrespect to the Isle of Wight!). Other than a deal, that for me is the key event this year for two reasons, 1) we finally get to see under the bonnet and 2) if you were doing your due diligence and liking the story, you would kind of want your offer in before it all goes public right? "new drug promises end to inflammatory suffering" etc in the papers. The big companies might not care as they are so dominant, but I think I would want the deal struck first as soon as the PCT search/inquiry comes back clean to avoid an open bidding situation. Again, fingers crossed. My guess is it will all kick off in late Q3 which is about right for 12 months industry standard DD process and publishing for patent and journal paper. An agonising wait but hopefully better eventual outcome than the 2.25% interest rate on my savings account!

I still can't believe IMM thought this would all be done by Christmas 2025 which really worries me. It shows unbelievable naivety and casts doubt on all their timelines and expectations, but let's just hope the P140 product is effective as it should be attractive if it is. All will be revealed one way or another I guess if we can just accept the inevitable patience and temperament testing wait...tick tock..GLA

I have just (imm)politely declined paying a premium for new shares.. I have enough, and now I want less not more shares as the goalposts just moved out of sight and Delboy is telling me there is a nice little three wheeled runner that's going to sort me pancreas artt!

Real shame as I really thought this had cheeky little winner written all over it both for us and patients with dreaded Lupus. Prob just another AIM pot of gold at the bottom of a rainbow.. anyway, no point selling in a rush into this mess today so sitting tight to see if it goes up at some point to give me a reasonable exit point albeit 10x lower than what I had hoped for. Genuinely interested to see what is in the next interview if there is one as this needs some serious good news to refloat it now.. "erm..ahh..so...erm....almost..nearly... imminent..transformative..transparent...game changing blah blah"

The problem is, this is suddenly like buying a premium "best you can buy" holiday to the Seychelles and the travel agent suddenly says last minute he has a nice off plan place in the Caribbean for you after the school holidays as he's let the Seychelles apartment to someone else or it has rats or storm damage.. P140 is THE focus, the behemoth, the billion dollar prize, ready to roll that is why we are here and some have been here a long time for this moment. Porky pies and a lack of transparency are still it seems the soft foundation of AIM.

I just bought some more, I know it is a big gamble (is it fun, has the fun stopped? has it even started - who knows), I probably have too many now and I can't help but buy to certain quantities which probably makes me weird (normally ending 65,000 or 85,000 even if some more numbers come first to make a really big number, but never numbers with 4's in unless they at the start and that still urks me). But this one definitely feels like a reward for the patient and hopefully patient. I have real world experience of a friend losing his wife to lupus and it is pretty mean as bad things go so a cure is a good thing to support one way or another.

I have watched and rewatched the interviews - looks like credible excitement, I have looked at the science (thanks for those posting and of course primary sources too). Bottom line is if this is novel and working like old penicillin did in Fleming's dish, it is going to generate a big value uplift for IMM. How much, lord knows.. My gut feel, and it is just gut feel, is this will land in one of three places, 1) an MCAP of about £90-120m eq 18-24p if the deal is a kind of "looks good but more science needed to prove it beyond doubt", £271m or 54p if it is a cash up front and plenty of jam tomorrow after 3-yrs more testing type deal and maybe £1.2bn £2.42+ cash in hand if this really is a ripper and the big guys like it "as is" and are willing to fight for it and take out IMM for all the long term spoils.

Right that's my quarterly excitement/post buy ramp done, obviously we all want the last outcome hence buying a heap more shares, but even 18-24p feels like a nice short term target just now stuck at 6p! Anyway, despite having a phd (wrong subject matter though) there is zero science in my predictions and just getting my cards on the table in case the news does drop soon as it seems fun to do so when nothing much else happening but war and grimness. Probably when I am on leave with no signal but that's just fine! As long as it comes.. GLA and fingers crossed for us all!

Just listened to the LC interview. All very positive but did mention about taking funding at some point PR.."Louis just don't mention future funding or raises" so that is perhaps why everyone is suddenly feeling a bit shy. That said, if they don't need the money urgently, they can be a little more picky than most and hopefully raise at the going rate or above to minimise any dilution which is a killer for us PIs. I would prefer to see them JV in Argentina and use any proceeds for Colombia development. I think Argentina is too big for them to handle on their own as there is a lot of land and a lot of work needs to be done to mature it. Getting Pepas mining asap will very likely supply all the cash they need and doesn't need too much specialist engineering - as they say "a gold quarry". Mining Pepas will also help derisk the other prospects in Anza proving they can go from resource to mine. Can they develop on their own? Maybe, maybe not, but I wouldn't put it past some of the neighbours to come in and offer a helping hand especially with underground as they would need help on that. ORO wouldn't get full value up front in that kind of deal, but a sizeable cash injection and no worries about operating would be nice with all the other targets to chase which is what they are best suited to. Think this is a top drawer hold for me and just check in every month to make sure it is still heading in the right direction. GLA.

Sat here diligently watching this every morning through the bleak midwinter and looks like patience finally paying off.. just refreshed to see it up a whole penny from 8.5p to 9.5p just like that on the ask.. go IMM please be a great deal if it comes in! GLA.

Today has knocked all the froth off the recent rise. Pepas has come in where I thought about 200 MRE but little odd they didn't say measured given the tight drill spacing. I think that comes down to requiring a development plan for conversion and maybe some evenly spaced GC drilling which will happen as part of the initial mine development to guide grade reconciliations and feed to processing. Pepas and whole Colombian asset feels like a takeover target for an established operator given the Moz upside. So much value longer term, which traders not hanging around for today - classic AIM! Creates another solid buy in on the longer term rising trend if you ignore the two large blips. I bought some in the low 20s and watched it sink initially back to 18p but that has since been a good patient investment. Will therefore add more in this low as this will I think be back in the 30s before long as much more to come (hopefully better received news mind!). GLA whatever the games you are playing and hopefully enjoying being part of!

A Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) is a technical assessment that calculates the tonnage and grade of a mineral deposit based on geological data (drilling, sampling, modeling) to determine its economic potential. It defines the size and quality of a deposit, typically categorized by confidence level (Measured, Indicated, Inferred) to guide mining projects and investment decision. Bottom line is we are after "measured (& indicated)" which should convert to bookable reserves as soon as feasibility studies are completed and final investment decisions are made to commence mining. Paper value assigned to each ounce gets closer to true value as the uncertainty reduces. Hoping minimum 100-200kOz measured at >4g/t to support current share price anything higher in the indicated and inferred is upside. Drill spacing looks close enough for measured across all of the main ore zone. GLA.

My guess is they got some additional interest out of the recent conference.

They weren't presenting, and it was billed as a networking showcase so quite likely they had meetings lined up. Quite possible one or more companies said "hey ok, it sounds interesting so we will take a look for fear our CEO will melt us down if we miss a game changer" which given it was early Nov would require a few months at least. Doesn't necessarily mean things are better or worse as all these guys might walk or pitch in at a low initial level.

Just takes more time. What we need here is a bidding war to begin and a bit of industry FOMO where at least two parties with muscle realise this really is a game changer and decide it is "all in" time. If they are doing the due diligence and thinking "hmm, this just isn't ready yet, it needs more work" then we might see some low-ball offers to support some trials with jam tomorrow milestones - that wouldn't be so bad and could get us a decent rise above 19p but a little underwhelming given Tim's exuberance. That is where I am in my head though - a deal to move things forwards but not the $1bn end game. Means I bought in too quick around 10p and nervous wait begins BUT would have kicked myself if the news had been good so overall happy to be in and expect some kind of deal to get us rising again.

The hard thing is not looking day to day and tinkering. Tinkering is probably the worst thing to do with a share like this as it all comes down to one press release which could happen dare I say it "any day now".. well... maybe Feb-March is my guess as a draft heads of terms worthy of an announcement. GLA.

I will be at midnight mass on Christmas eve to pray this flies so keep that humour going;-)

Yup..there is buying in the background;-) Up to 385k IMM branded pharma lottery tokens in this one and some of those 50k trades are mine even the 8.9p one and a couple around 9.2p.. let's hope they do a bit better than my WG. which got stuck for 7 months with zero gain (but thankfully no loss!)! Listened to the interviews multiple times, looking for tells and little inconsistencies but nope... looks credible and he seems rock solid so either Tim is a damn good liar liar pants on fire or hopefully this is going up big time.. I don't think this will be a gradual rise, it is going to be zero to hero and nothing in between provided the hype pans out. The value magnitude of the deal will be pretty clear so easy for people to see and that will dictate what level we should be trading at (allowing for milestone risk etc etc). Anyway, I'll give it a few months and see what happens as been building since Sept. GLA.

Do you think anyone is actually at SIWH or is it just listing gently with cobwebs on the white boards.. the silence is deafening and playing havoc with my tinnitus..

Just switched my vote for 120k shares against the deal (you can just log in and update your preference in I Inv, HL etc up to the final date 11th Nov as far as I can see which might update to later given the delays).. my vote will obviously make little difference as it is a drop in the ocean. BUT having seen the accounts are grim but not a total calamity and on a par with some functioning peers, I think the deal should go ahead for the workers sake BUT at a fairer price for WG shareholders. 30p might be financially justified as a fire sale and look good in the face of a zero outcome, but the extra 5p discount wasn't necessary and annoyed me. This play was always all about improving future margins on a big well established revenue stream for long term gain - 10% margin on 6bn would see them home and dry in a few years and that is why Sid wants them. So no pay no get at least in principle, at least not for now. I think Sid will have plenty in the tank to sweeten the deal either by buying their own holding or upping the price formally. But without any pushback they wont even bother - why would they? they would bid 20p if they could get away with it. Let's hope they buy shares for control as suggested possibly even at a premium.

Whistle blew from the trenches last week, over the top on Thursday.. but still in no man's land.. it is mighty quiet.. everyone twitching to press sell/buy and the guns will roar again! Peace and safety at 45p would be best for everyone right and leave a slightly less bitter taste? Sad really it always comes down to a fight with losers on one side. GLA.. lets hope tomorrow AM we get some market derived guidance as it really is anyone's guess at the moment with 30p being the obvious most likely anchor point..

Yup we might as well all be open as we go over the top.. 120k shares around 24.4p after blindly ignoring my gut and averaging down right at the end.. not the biggest or best trading I have ever done given the risks of suspension and PCF style implosion but seemed like a good long term turnaround chance for a solid company on initial £10k bet at 40p. That was Feb March quite late after they pressed self destruct but much worse since then. It soon became clear 200p a share and FCF 2025/2026 was as it would seem complete and utter bullshizzle..! Hooked by a lie and now just happy to move on.

For comparison the rest of my portfolio doubled during suspension so Wood probably cost me best part of £25k in lost profit and a shed load of stress in return instead but hey ho - win some lose some. I know some on here like Bob are way down and I send out genuine empathy and commiserations for wood employees in the share scheme. I got well and truly xxxxxx by a company share scheme failing miserably in 2020 due to incompetent bosses and similar false accounting aka "it'll be fine" mentality. GLA... the whistle is blowing Baldrick.. this is it..

They need some kind of trigger warning on these form RNS's.. I've false started my heartrate to 180 a few times this week when the RNS button lights up only to have to calm down with a cold compress.. not long now surely (..but my name is not Shirley?;-))..

Another 7am no show.. hate being ghosted but that seems to be their style - very Halloween. It occurred to me they might be preparing all the press briefings as this, whatever it is, will land like a turd in a bowl of cheerios? You would have thought the text would all be in place as they have had months to get ready for this moment. Maybe like the gov does it they will give the press the snippets up front of info on the basis they don't use certain words in the commentary? A kind of Quid Pro Quo? Quid Pro Quo's didnt go well for PFC! I can think of some words I wouldn't want the press to use if I was WG like hmmm... lying, gross negligence, fraudulent, obfuscation, cover-up, criminal, and prison, but I suppose that is for them to decide where the line is drawn. Either way, can you imagine what it is like in SIWH PR room right now? Something like W1A I imagine if you saw that.. unless they have fixed things in which case it might be Wolf of Wall Street party time with LT on the microphone drop but I give that a low probability! To the wire it is then..see you 7am tomorrow..yawn..

Likewise.. I checked this morning at 7:00 and thought "ah well.. another day scratched on the WG prison wall"... does feel like surely tomorrow is D-Day or indeed A-Day as the whole thing is clearly following a script. I still don't know how all this is allowed to happen in such a (supposedly) heavily regulated setting, but they obviously think they can get away with it. I'm 90% take the money and run but intrigued to see if the Icecool has played a blinder in calling out the great escape attempt.. surely Sid wont fall for that after being snubbed in 2024 but would be nice to get at least a bit of a sweetener to see us all off into the sunset..see you bright and early tomorrow for the 7am vigil!

Apologies, long term lurker reading all your fab messages and hypotheses and couldnt resist signing up just to add my ten penneth. Been watching this play out for month after month with my money trapped like the rest of you. Just wanted to chip in with the elephant in the room - what of the FCA? Do we think they will allow this to all play out without so much as a mention? They are presumably implicated if they fail to act? Or, as it just occurred to me, are they biding their time to protect the interests of the 35,000 work force but will hammer those individuals culpable as soon as the company is on a safe footing? Can they target individuals or is it collective liability? Sidara scheduled 5p off the share price "just in case" so obviously know something might come of it as I don't think they were just being tight/punitive as it opens the door for others at a lower level.

Would help to explain certain slippery characters jumping ship (at the end of a pointy sword perhaps). FCA timed their last statement neatly for maximum impact as a warning shot so no reason why they wont pull something out of the bag to make the headlines in due course as this final tragedy plays out. Reminds me of the Duchess of Malfi.. messy. I selfishly just want my investment back to play elsewhere but would like to see the scoundrels behind this nightmare banged up for a good to send a loud message that this just isn't how the game is played.

Still praying for another party to up the ante in the dying seconds or Lazarus like recovery but looks pretty much a done deal now we are down to the last minutes of extra extra time. Love and best wishes to all G.