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Morning Banbury, I seen all you post, sorry just feel still not clear enough to me. But, I do agree most of your comments.
If the cash burn was because of refund to customers as your latest post, I feel it’s not a very bad news, you got to refund them and they will book again later. And do you think maybe all cruises sales person are paid by saga holiday or tour?
I didn't want to disrespect you, just like to discuss it.
Can’t wait market to close, this week is bad, hope a new start from Monday. We should see rns about all 250m bond are sold.
Banbury, I wants to asking you about “ tour burning 7m per month” for couple days as you mentioned it every day. I didn’t seen it from TU. all I seen is this” Through the first four months of the year, the focus has been on ensuring the safe restart of the Travel business, while keeping costs and subsequent cash burn to a minimum. The monthly cash burn for the four months to 31 May 2021 was at the lower end of our previous guidance of GBP7m-GBP9m per month.”. I think they means all travel including cruises burning 7m per month. Please correct me if I missed something. Thanks
Thanks Dr Thomson, I need someone like you to tell me everything is okay when the share price keep dropping.lol. I know that I am Panicked every time share dropped more than 10% in couple days. Just like to talk to you guys when the drop is hurting me. Haha. I trust you, mate.
Banbury, I think most of us agree that tour is a big problem. But, nothing new it’s a old problem may need years to solve. I believe the market and IIs knew it from long time ago. So, I don’t think it’s the reason for this week drop. If you seen the trading closely, it’s more buys, but it’s because the offer keep drop. Saga share price movement is odd, more sell than buys on a good blue day because of the bid keep rising. So. It’s really doesn’t matter shows buy or sell.
The chart looks really bad as didn’t support at 50days moving average. Also, there is no big short( more than 0.5%) as well. The share price movement looks doesn’t right, or maybe someone made it looks bad, who knows! I think that why we feeling bad, smell the danger but can’t see it.
I am guessing there are three outcomes:
1. Something really bad we don’t know.
2. Another big holder selling.
3. Someone keep price low for a big positive reason, as buy more later, a bid….
Anyway, just try to put down everything in my mind. Last five trading days are painful to watch, I still couldn’t believe that we had five red days down 15%!
Gla
Yes, if you trade very often
Cheers Beachbum, good to hear that you did top up, I wish I have fund to do that. It’s really painful to watch saga going down when other travels are up. But, looks other insurance companies are down since yesterday, maybe it’s part of reason. Also, clearly someone is selling and selling at low price as the offer keep going down. I hope it’s someone keeping price low for big rise or to buy more. Fingers cross, I don’t want see share price movement as last summer. Last summer high was early June, then keep going down until nov vaccine news.
It’s odd isn’t it? But we seen it before. I just start thinking is a big holder off loading? But the vol still low. Looks someone want to keep price low. We will find out. Just wait.
Really happy to see everyone still confident on saga share price. I am surprised that saga still in red today as other travels back in blue in the afternoon. But it’s not first time we seen saga sp dips very fast, hope isn’t another big holder start to off loading. Anyway, nothing changed yet, just this covid game doesn’t want to end. Hope sp will keep at this level until some good news come out. The very blue sky is coming If UK prove that vaccine can beat covid without lockdown. Fingers cross, let us get rich sooner. Gla
Banbury, I agree with you feel saga always hidden something, or it’s the way they do things.
My best guess for paying off 100m 2024 bond early is to make sure company is safe. No one knows when travel back to normal, saga has to pay ship loans from next year, they are not confident to back 250m bond or refinance it in or just before 2024 if travel still in trouble next year.
I think saga decided to make sure Survive rather than profit in near future. I feel it’s not a bad plan to reduce the risk.
Joe, me too, not a big fan of football, but like to watch some important games. This England vs Germany game is more than just football to a lot of people including myself. As Merkel been tough to us from brexit to recent travels. Really enjoyed that we beats them tonight. It’s very encouraging, team England has problems same as saga, but still able to success when everyone work hard plus a bit of luck. Looking forward RDH lead his team to make success and all of us get rich. Gla
The drop since last Thursday is all travel shares around the world. Looks The delta is the reason, but it’s not sell off, looks like market just depress the share price for next rise. We seen this so many times, nothing changed. There are demands for holidays, those people will pay it soon or later. Summer international holiday is less likely, it’s a big problem for companies really need make big money this summer, but saga doesn’t need it, saga cruises sailing all year round and those over 50s doesn’t need to travel school holidays. Also, today’s close price still same as late Feb high, it’s much better than other travel companies and airlines. Of course, if we sold high and buy back low every time will be nice, but we are not that good.
Let’s waiting for our reward, let the market play their little tricks.
Hope England beat Germany!
I do wish I have fund to buy bit more. I can’t remember how many times travel shares in blood bath since Feb last year, even this year. I do feel good to see all travel go down again with small vol. IIs will keep shares as low as they can for next big rise. Really looking forward to see saga rise to 500+ in a month time. Gla
The delta will spreading very fast in Europe next couple weeks, it’s doesn’t matter British travel to there or not. Most counties will agree to live with covid as it’s really nothing else we can do about it. Most important, saga in much better position than others who really need this summer holiday to survive. Things will getting better in couple weeks time.
Just a bit worried travel to Europe may face Political reasons more than covid. It’s become a very complex
Sage, I agree, at least no more right issue in near term, that worries some
Thanks Banbury, to buy bond back at discount rate make sense. Hope they buy back no more than 98.00. Anyway, this is a good warning for us. This many still rise as high as we wish. But better be alert.
Thanks Banbury, but they could issue 150m new bond to pay 70m bank loan and keep 80m cash. Why extra 100m at 5.5% rate to pay off 3.3% rate? I know that make saga in a little bit better position, but is worth it? And it’s not first time, last year they spend 10m for 150m placing. Those guy did care to spend share holder’s money or they just have no choice. Either reason, debts is a bigger problem than we think. The AA was a good example, good company, sold very cheap because of debts.
Here is one thing I can’t workout, why saga issue 5.5% interest new bond to pay off 100m pounds 3.375% interest 2024bond? That’s 2.125m extra interest per year for 3 years? Total 6.375m
Good post Banbury, I think that why no brokers set the target price as high as us. It’s not easy to turn this old ship around. Travel still is the key, saga may offload Titan to repay 150m bond in 2024 if travel back to normal in next year and bounce back nicely. But, extra millions interest for five year is hurt. Hope saga management term have a plan. Anyway, we are safe for now. Gla
5.5 is high, 13.7m interest every year. But at least we don’t have to worry about money in near future.