RE: Does not compute11 Jul 2025 12:36
This is the email I sent to Roland yesterday with zero response.
" Roland. I and many others are asking what it is that Syn are not telling us ? On the face of it it, if what we have been told in previous rns's is true, it is very hard to see how this deal is in the best interests if shareholders.
In the rns of 2nd June we were told that Selan had secured a rig and drilling was expected to commence in September. I know drilling is not a quick process but surely it would have been possible to hold on long enough for some good income to come in? It's not that long ago that you were estimating gas flow of 8 mmscfd by the end of the year. Obviously completely impossible now but a fraction of that would presumably be enough to keep the lights on until that good income materialised.
Perhaps Selan have said there will be further delays? If so it's difficult to understand how that can be possible under the terms of the jv contract ?
If this deal goes though Syn will effectively have sold the whole of Cambay for about £10 million plus whatever income comes through until the deal is finalised. A few years ago you produced a model for 10 wells which predicted a profit of £58 million over a number of years and that a full field development would be 30+ wells. So presumably by now we would be looking at
c 200 Million with Syn's share around £100 million. In the light of that it certainly seems that this is a good deal. Unfortunately, only for Selan.
The deal may well represent a compelling valuation compared to the current mcap but it extrapolates to a share price of around 0.05 to 0.06 around a third of what it was shortly after the jv rns in February 2024. I remember you saying that even that price didn't come close to the true value. I know there are a lot more shares now, but it still doesn't add up.
I am pretty sure most long term holders like myself, who are heavily underwater, will vote against. No doubt the likes of Republic who have participated in every rsise, will be in favour and it will go through. A sad end to a long saga.
I don't suppose you will reply but hopefully you will feel able to respond in some other way. An interview ? On X ?
If you do resond I will only post on the board with your agreement.
Regards Gordon