Nutrition was a bright spot due to whey prices but not anything THG are doing well
“ Optimum Nutrition (“ON”) brand delivered LFL revenue growth of +16.2% with volume and price
momentum; ON sustained US consumption growth2 of 14.3%”
MyProteins more expensive competitor is flying! The MyProtein CEO is an inexperienced clown. With that new branding it’s going to get worse!
Gym goers want gym brands (not wellness). That’s why when going gets tough they cut back elsewhere but focus on the cheaper gym activities. Brands like Warrior are growing really well atm. Again complete opposite of MyProtein in terms of direction
THG branding stinks of too much “woke” and “diversity” opinion over what do the core customer base want. And that core market alone is huge enough
Ste if you’re going to post rudely that others are analytical I’d make sure you get your own facts right first
The market share of +4% is for the U.K. only, the active customer count is global. So you can gain 4% in the U.K. but lose market share globally. Which is what is clearly happening
Will you be an adult and apologise for being rude (and wrong) probably not but would be nice to see some sensibility on the board
That THG is losing market share for nutrition is just a joke. Competitors are all performing well. MyProtein is ran by an immature CEO who I see often around Manchester. I’ll tell you he’s a clown. He’s the same as the other top people at THG all loyal to Matt, learned at THG and have no outside perspective. What MyProtein needs is a proper CEO with a real CV
Hard to see any positive
Beauty is being smashed by Sephora and Boots (tbh THG was just a first mover online everyone has now caught up. There’s no USP)
Ingenuity those client wins are woeful. Mostly sounds like taking pictures? And speaks volumes that the disposals went and left Ingenuity straight away! The people that apparently helped start it and have used it for years didn’t want their business on it
Nutrition. The rebrand sucks. It’s targeting old women now. The special K font is terrible. The value story in MyProtein was you won all the 16 year olds and kept them for life. Now you want their mum who will have a health kick for a few months. But then red turns off women so it’s a really crappy “in the middle” branding
The growth for myprotein is poor vs peers
I don’t comment here much but thought I’d look in. Again you can see the fans just cheer anything as good news but don’t see any negative
I thought the plan was that THG would drop all these small scrappy customers? And this forum was cheering how THG had a plan to target the whales? Now you’re all wet after signing three businesses which between them have
I get you and agree
Glad I bought back the shares I sold at 590p. For once i timed it rather well. Well one of the two I sold at 590p and then three days later it was 670p. But I timed the bottom one! Ha
The consideration shares are paid today. They aren’t part of the deferred. The deferred is the final cash element
But I agree it’s brave to make a deal at an EV above your own. We should have seen this coming the annual report flags iso a number of times as an area of interest
Exciting times hopefully around the corner!
A new GRC deal. An expensive deal like this confirms for me that TIC is as good as sold (subject to debt markets)
The cash out on this deal is high so they must be fairly confident there’s a chunk of cash coming back their way soon
Https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-plans-to-boost-health-in-the-workplace-to-keep-people-in-work
Consultation to start. 12 months from now could be a huge win for industry leader Marlowe!
Huge volume at todays close
If inflation heads down then PE will be able to access debt and the TIC sale will happen
Can you share a link to the news you suggested?
True
Quite a lot of volume yesterday but the shares held. Do we think 480p is the floor…for now?
Well it seems the market is discounting any deal now. We are below where we were pre rumour. Terrible close today
Feeling like I might reacquire the shares I sold the other week. Nice to add a few more “free” shares
Can you tell us more about what you saw?
I’m on the fence with this one atm
Looks like we will just drift now
Might add if we go lower but not rushing or hoping to
Perfectly put
Arguably this is the last year of tight FCF. H2 was very good for cash flow. If we can get a full year of that then we should be cashflow neutral this year (even with £15m already spent on M&A, £10m of integration costs, deferred consideration and a high interest burden)
The statement yesterday says we have £23m of accordion left and £30m of cash on hand so in reality we could do more deals this year but I think this will be one or two. The last fire safety deal was large and will take time to integrate
Assuming we only do a few more deals this year. Then next year FCF could be c.£40m. When investors can see that then shares will rerate for sure
It seems like for now we will drift lower. Watch for good news on inflation and interest rates I think before adding
We pumped the market with fake money and now we have this mess? Your theory is a stupid one
We need to get off the fake money medicine
I agree both. Do I think multiples in PE have compressed? Yes and no. I think for poor assets or over hyped areas but high recurring revenues in compliance I think they haven’t. Also a buy and build platform remains attractive to PE
But I’d take 15x for the lot and cash out so maybe I’m biased
If the shares get weaker from here I’ll add. Was annoying to not be able to ask questions. I really want to know the crack with those debtors
Https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/news/2023/06/29/marlowe-boosts-cash-conversion-rate/
Tipped as a buy
I’m glad to be wrong! Ha
But I certainly think they are sailing close to the wind. We had a 50bps jump at last rate meeting and markets are headed where Marlowe say there is danger. The CFO should want to redeem himself (he’s the one who put us on Sonia rates) to get out ahead of this
Collect those debtors while he’s at it! £33m over 120 days old. That’s a joke
The increase to consideration for acquisitions seems odd. Is there an issue with staff retention?
The debtors point I flagged has got bigger. I’ll try and ask this on the call (if I can)
No mention of any spin off
Lots of deals and money spent post year end (£15m). Going concern note saying interest rates 2% higher would be an issue! Well given we are at 5% and the market is saying 6.25% shouldn’t we be stamping on it now? The FD doesn’t seem to have much foresight
Very good organic growth though shows the underlying business is good. Just need to get some cash in the door (though net debt was lower showing we can generate cash)
I’m thinking a sell off today. Sentiment hasn’t been with us and this RNS scream “more M&A” vs “pay down debt” which I think is what the market will want
Not a stock I know well but a 10% shareholder halving their holding today following a huge acquisition doesn’t fill me with confidence
Also operations in darker corners of the world is also a bit of a concern
Saying that seems like good cash flows and they do deals very cheaply
It’s just difficult to see value in total when it’s actually a pile of seperate businesses
I’d watch it and see if you can snag shares cheaper than atm. As I say I think markets will fall and all stocks will sell off with sentiment. A good example is JTC. Seems to always trade well but every few months the shares get hammered 15-20% on sentiment
Brooks Macdonald I also like but sold today. Again will fall if the market comes off
Just my views but great to share ideas. I appreciate and respect your insights