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Red again! Atrocious.

Http://www.stockchallenge.co.uk/ftse.php

This chart showing TLW made it into FTSE250

I’m expecting a positive share price week ahead

Announcement on the total bond buy back values

FTSE 250 entry

OPEC to agree production cuts

Hoping all long term holders recover all their money plus some profit here to compensate their pain and patience. Last 12 months have been a disaster regards the share price but the recovery looks to be taking place.

Water injection rates to be rectified before year end, it’s only 6 weeks away. 2024 the big earner

Nice uptick before results day as per usual, then usually falls on results day, although tomorrow may be different as I’m expecting the best update in over 12 months with the higher production figures pencilled in.

"This uncertainty has been a key drag on the share price and we expect the shares to react well to today's announcement," the brokerage said.

Todays uptick shows that debt, bonds and refinancing has been pulling this back, Peel hunt wrote

“The facility "significantly de-risks" Tullow's ability to refinance its 2026 notes, Peel Hunt analysts wrote in a note”

So if Wednesdays trading statement is positive then expect some broker upgrades. Tullow 2025 bond prices spiked after todays news.

Let’s hope for once some enthusiasm is actually put into the trading update on the 15th… very poor performance this week, oil down Tullow down, oil up Tullow down?

High oil prices having little effect on share price. SP headed south after tying in to the 10.25% bond. The share price is negatively affected by debt associated with high interest rates, bond markets volatility and lack cash flowing into the markets. All government created issues. On top of that there’s 2 wars active right now. Since the bond buy back auction the bonds have recovered substantially in value which is counter effective as the debt is now dearer to buy back the large proportion outstanding.

At Jubilee, production averaged approximately 95,900 bopd gross during the quarter, ~32% higher compared to the previous quarter.

Three producer wells were brought online during the third quarter, taking gross field production up to around 100,000 bopd.

Post quarter-end, two water injection wells, which were delayed due to operational issues, were brought online. This delay coupled with higher than anticipated downtime of the water injection pumps within the quarter, resulted in a slower ramp-up in Jubilee production. This is expected to result in one Jubilee cargo lifting originally planned for Kosmos in the fourth quarter of 2023, being deferred into early 2024.

Positive start to the week for Tullow considering oil is down and most oilers are down today

My calculations Tullow should be currently producing around 64kbopd which is significantly more than the 53kbopd 1H 2023. 2021 was 59.2kboepd, 2022 was 61.1kboepd. Oil price strongly higher than 2021 and currently lower debt and hedges. 2021 share price reached mid 60’s.

Tullow needs the 2 additional wells at jubilee online ASAP to capitalise on the higher oil prices while they are here, year end is fast approaching. Any excess cash needs to be used to buy back bonds at a discount while they can as the price has been racing north since the last buy back and won’t be long till they are on par to the initial price.

I have a feeling the shorters also trade Tullow, knowing that any spike will be transient and will be pulled back again due to the negative pull of the shorts. In the long run trading they make more than the loss on the short. Just my opinion though.

Frustration of delays and broken time frames, still waiting for those additional wells to come online, the other issue is there is worldwide issues developing very fast right now, so when these “share price catalysts” finally do materialise they may have little effect due worldwide worry of war and recessions.

Poor real time prices on various sites today, low volumes, tried buying “one” share to check real time price and got negotiated trade?

Would be better if they paid more attention to the forward production forecasting in the updates rather than us working it out. The frustrating thing is oil went to $95, the share price drifted down, oil falls a few percent in the day, the share price goes down. Recession talk share price goes down, everything pulls it down

My patience has completely run out now and frustrated to still be stuck in the red, where’s the “multiple share price catalysts” we were promised and “H2 2023 is the year the markets stop worrying about the debt”.. I’m beginning to believe this companies is run by the Conservative party..

A lot of broken timeframes from the company, the Kenya can has been kicked into the bushes out of sight, Ghana gas agreement was meant to be in Q3? only a few days left.