Member Info for gogadget

Https://uk.investing.com/commodities/brent-oil

Jmax in certainly doesn’t drift sidewards over many years

If not profitable it would not be pursued.

Based on the low figures of recoverable reserves

460m barrels @ $80= $36.8B recoverable

120k barrels per day @ $80 = $3.504B per annum revenue.

Plus there are unexplored areas within Turkana.

FDP pipeline was increased from 70k barrels per day to 120k barrels per day to speed up pay back to temp farm in partners.

If development costs of the pipeline and wells comes to $6B, there’s $30.8B minus operating fees and taxes to make a profit from.

Oil prices with creep up over the coming years along side general inflation.

The world needs fossil fuels for many decades to keep up with energy demand along side the green energy transition.

Yes Kenya is a must and needs to happen..

Tullow along side Harbour in the top 100 shorted FTSE stocks. Harbour share price has been pulled back to pre wintershall announcement. Many Uk oilers pulled back regardless of good news.

March results need some updates on Kenya and the Tax dispute. Also some info on the Glencore lending facility terms and interest rates.

All silence plays into the hands of the negative.

Kosmos results on Monday, so will have a updated jubilee production figures.

2023 production 63 kboepd

57 kboepd (oil) 6 kboepd (gas)

2024 production forecasts 62-68 kboepd

62 @ 55 kboepd (oil) 7 kboepd. 1.59% decrease

68 @ 61 kboepd (oil) 7 kboepd. 7.9% increase

Other factors to consider

Decrease in hedges

Kenya FID

Favourable Ghana Tax resolution

Interest rate cut optimism.

Share price is depressed on the basis that no positive factors will take place.

Can kicked down the road for another 4 weeks till the next US and UK interest rate meetings.

The net production figures have gone slightly upwards and not downwards which is the positive thing. Jubilee is compensating for some declines in TEN, once the additional wells come online as the year progresses then hopefully be at the top end of guidance at 68k. Oil currently above $80 which will increase free cash flow. March we need a update on Kenya and Tax dispute….

Also the article goes on about December production. The water injection issue was rectified at some point in December, if it was late December then it will have little impact on December figures. January figures when released will give a clearer picture

Https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/ghana-plans-more-flexible-oil-royalties-regime-spur-investment-2023-11-16/

Ghana revenue service read this before you hand out backdated tax grabs

Think the only think that will shift this is market sentiment on positive speculation of interest rate cuts. Seems to have a big hold on a lot of companies

Just come across a old Reuters article from 2019.

Tullow was asked back then to look at constructing a refinery but stated it’s not financially viable to do so unless it’s processing 400,000 barrels per day. Which will be the answer to why they stuck to the pipeline in the latest FDP and will again be the answer to Ruto “allegedly” recently requesting a refinery be constructed.

May have been viable if a refinery was shared by Uganda/Kenya/South Sudan as part of LAPSSET pipeline project

I just can’t see it myself, Tullows business is fossil fuels, not inert gases.

As you said a “rumour”

Don’t think they will be looking to fund another development field just yet. Their focus is current assets.

Any further delays will irate many investors. I’m hoping it’s is approved within the next 6 weeks. I don’t think I can have faith in that dangling carrot after March.

Doubt it!! Not much money in party balloons.

Looking at some articles on the LAPSSET pipeline, (Uganda/Kenya/South Sudan) there has been several pipeline options under discussion going back many years.. not sure which countries are at fault for the delays/breakdown in co-operation. Uganda decided to go alone and get on with its own heated pipeline from the lake albert oil project. Wouldn’t surprise me if EPRA, who are too incompetent to make their own decisions delay the FDP again. Decision was due “within Q1”

There is no merger or take over likely… just ongoing market sentiment issues. Maybe dodged a bullet with the Capricorn merger. Look at the state of the. CNE share price decline over past 12 months…

Make short selling shares illegal in the UK, like Germany and others.

Short selling of stocks in the UK causes instability in companies share prices. In many cases £millions can be wiped off the value of a company by coordinated groups of short sellers spreading misinformation and rumours, causing investors to panic and sell their stock.

How on earth can some other company loan out something you own without your consent and the company or person who has borrowed it use it to influence the market in the opposite direction with the massive percentages of shares they are able to borrow and not own outright? Its fraudulent and corrupt, legal theft authorised by the government and needs to be banned and stopped.

Click this link to sign the petition:

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/657294/sponsors/new?token=EMIgM07k9Zj3akpbgXJc

Make short selling shares illegal in the UK, like Germany and others.

Short selling of stocks in the UK causes instability in companies share prices. In many cases £millions can be wiped off the value of a company by coordinated groups of short sellers spreading misinformation and rumours, causing investors to panic and sell their stock.

How on earth can some other company loan out something you own without your consent and the company or person who has borrowed it use it to influence the market in the opposite direction with the massive percentages of shares they are able to borrow and not own outright? Its fraudulent and corrupt, legal theft authorised by the government and needs to be banned and stopped.

Click this link to sign the petition:

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/657294/sponsors/new?token=EMIgM07k9Zj3akpbgXJc

Make short selling shares illegal in the UK, like Germany and others.

Short selling of stocks in the UK causes instability in companies share prices. In many cases £millions can be wiped off the value of a company by coordinated groups of short sellers spreading misinformation and rumours, causing investors to panic and sell their stock.

How on earth can some other company loan out something you own without your consent and the company or person who has borrowed it use it to influence the market in the opposite direction with the massive percentages of shares they are able to borrow and not own outright? Its fraudulent and corrupt, legal theft authorised by the government and needs to be banned and stopped.

Click this link to sign the petition:

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/657294/sponsors/new?token=EMIgM07k9Zj3akpbgXJc