Member Info for gmed-2

The fat lady hasn't sung yet

I would expect that Fortress has already prepared its counter-counterbid with the price range determined, the exact price depending on CD&R's counterbid. Amazon is still in the wings waiting to see what actually happens.

I'm with you Funky. I've got a bit in this company myself and I'm still quite confident that it will come good in the end. Actually, much better than good. I did some major adding at prices under 1.00, so I'm not adding more now. Even mrs gmed is still very positive, which is always a good sign.

And don't forget, Amazon can make an offer in shares or a combination of shares and cash, which the other bidders cannot. This gives Amazon the ability to make a far higher offer than the others and still have it make economic sense.

I'd be happy just to see the company survive until 2023

Hi Betram - Thanks, but a wager is a wager. But good job I didn't risk more on this! And your 10 quid isn't safe yet!

I've always believed that Amazon would be the last to come to this party. I think they will wait until the dust settles and they know exactly who is and who isn't in this and at what price(s). They will then come with a "knockout offer" and be the ultimate winner. This is all pure conjecture, of course, but if I were in Amazon's position, that's exactly what I'd be doing. (This may explain why I'm not on Amazon's board.) And as I see it, There is now even more urgency behind Amazon making an offer for Morrisons because, as jedclampit speculates, if Apollo joins Fortress, they may be plotting some sort of splitup of Morrisons. This would be very bad news indeed for Amazon, which would then see the reliability of one of its maior suppliers potentially threatened. I just cannot believe they will allow this to happen. (On the other hand, I also could not believe that personal computers would ever be a success either, so take all of this for what it's worth haha)

Mrs gmed read the rns and said, "Fine rns - should send the sp down nicely. It's traditional with wres, isn't it?" Haha, I said, but then we saw the opening....

All very encouraging!

I doubt we'll have to wait that long. And if there is a rival offer, it will almost certainly be in excess of the current sp. So yes, if there's no new offer, it will cost you 12p, but if there is one, selling at the current price will also have a cost.

This is one time when the rampers' famous phrase "wouldn't want to be out of this over the weekend" really does make sense! Haha

Bertram, you're a bookmaking pro, but you're on at 10/1.

Bertram, Amazon is still in the process of testing the self-checkout supermarket concept in the UK (stocking it initially mainly with Morrison's products). They opened the first one in Ealing only in March, so I don't think any final decision has yet been reached. As long as no one else made a play for Morrison's, they were probably happy to just continue with the test. But now they're forced to take a decision and, as I've said before, I don't think they'll be too concerned about what they have to pay to buy Morrison's; they'll be far more concerned with what the long-term cost to them will be if they DON'T buy it.
Ok, how about 15/1 on the bet haha?

Bertram, If there's only a 5% chance of Amazon making a bid, will you give me 19/1 odds if I bet Amazon will get involved?

Simon - buying at 230 was the closest thing to free money you'll ever get.

So is living generally.

It ain't over 'til the fat lady sings. In this case, I think Amazon is the fat lady.

Yes, I would expect a final offer from CD&R, or another similar firm, to be around 270-290. But Amazon is the wild card here - they stand to lose if Morrison's goes to a private equity firm. So they may feel compelled to top all other offers, even if the price would make little economic sense for anyone not operational involved with Morrison's. Also, Amazon can top other offers because they have the advantage of being able to make an offer in cash and shares, which is "cheaper" for them than a straight cash offer would be for a private equity firm. If this does turn into a bidding war, I imagine an Amazon offer could take us well into the 300s.

I can't see Amazon letting Morrison's go to a private equity bunch. Amazon have a very useful operational relationship with Morrison's that would be damaged by a private equity firm's ruthless cost-cutting. I'm convinced that Amazon plans to expand into physical stores and they know they won't be able to put together a portfolio of locations to match what Morrison's already has. I think they've put off the Morrison's decision until now so they could finish their store trials before making a final decision, but now their hand is being forced; they know it's now or never. And if they decide it's 'now', money won't be a problem, because for Amazon, unlike PE bidders, there's a real cost of NOT grabbing Morrison's. Also, I would think that, at the right price, the socially-responsible Morrison's board would accept a bid from Amazon before one from anyone who is not operationally involved with the company, even a bid lower than one from a PE firm. So I would expect an Amazon bid, most likely in cash and shares.

Hmmm... it looks like CD&R may already have company.