Stefan Bernstein explains how the EU/Greenland critical raw materials partnership benefits GreenRoc. Watch the full video here.
6p is just PI's guessing a number. Not based on much more than hope.
If we were to do an appraisal well that returned a good flow rate, that would probably jump to 60p though.
We got a mention in a Noble writeup. https://nextinvestors.com/articles/nhes-probable-free-gas-cap-6x-bigger-than-expected-this-upcoming-drill-will-find-out/
The concentration of gas is high. 4.7%
The amount of gas is unknown. We have no volume or pressure data.
Until we know it is commercially viable via an RNS then we will probably not go above 3p and drift until we get some news.
A comment I responded to the other day has had me thinking. I think it was naughtygeordie or something. It was with regards to one of David's last interviews prior to Tai3 being drilled. The exploration hole was going to be reused to test flow for 30 days and possibly be used for production.
We know Tai3 was not flow tested, but would that not be the next stage of the process for ITWest1? We are not waiting on the lab results before moving forward with our next steps. Or am I jumping the gun and we will still be analysing the data before that happens?
I'm not sure what video he was referring to, but Tai3 was not flow tested for 30 days. They intended to use the exploration hole for testing and possibly production, but Tai3 was caused and we will be coming back to it later. We had a problem with the iron roughneck breaking and mud losses .
Helium extracted as a byproduct of hydrocarbons range from 0.04% to 0.35%. Sometimes going as high as 0.5% so we use that as a comparison.
The US used to stockpile this in the federal reserve before and the cold war. They then began to auction it off for various industries to use.
These auctions have now stopped as the stockpile is greatly diminished and helium is now deemed an essential element for defence. Electronics and satellites require helium. The semiconductor shortage you may have read about last year was due to this shortage.
About 6.6BCF of helium is used each year and demand is still increasing. It is estimated that by 2030 we will require 10BCF. Demand is restricted due to Qatar and Russia not currently supplying helium, the federal reserve no longer selling and demand is continually growing. The price is high now and more availability would reduce the price, but demand is still very high and continues to grow. As the price reduces, I would expect demand to increase further as it becomes cost effective for industry to use.
This presentation from 6 months ago had contract prices around $450
https://youtu.be/froKUlEg3h4?si=5jLsHnLPiffYNwni&t=1933
The oldest interview for Helium One that I saw was on a Chinese news channel, so they are a real possibility. ISO containers retain the Helium for around 42 days, so getting to the port then onto the ship and sailing to destination restricts the area of influence a bit. Suppliers may take this up if they have sources in other areas that they can redirect to reduce their travel time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UHCMSsil_8A
Part 2
Thanks guys. Nowhere near as much name calling as I was worried there might be.
For the record, I am not a deramper - just ensuring both sides of the coin are shown as many posts have this sounding as though it is guaranteed to rise. I have 752,825 shares @ 1.7631p invested for the long haul so would be thrilled if this went to 20p. If it goes lower, I may add.
I do not have experience of a JV being formed so am not familiar with what should or shouldn't be disclosed. I thought that all price-sensitive information had to be disclosed. It may be that the flow rates are not deemed as being price sensitive as long as they mentioned that there was flow.
We currently have a Mcap of £83M. If the JV were to match this for 50%, would it be accepted? Would an SP of 4.5p be enough? I don't think so. Possibly for just the Rukwa area but even then I think it would need to be higher.
The ramp...
They had first mover advantage and were able to target the choice licence areas. Using historic and new seismic, airborne gravity and geochemistry data they have identified which reservoirs and sites to target. If we have now concluded the exploration part of the process, feasibility studies, field appraisal (production testing and 3D seismic) and applying for mining licences would be the next steps before production.
When originally looking to list on the Australian ASX stock market (delayed due to Covid), it had been mentioned that approaches had been made by Linde Gas, Praxair and Air Liquide. They were waiting on the sidelines (as they are not explorationists) until we hit the gas flow before arranging contracts for offtakes which means they may put up the capital to build the operation. Due to the high concentration of helium and with an appropriate flow, it was estimated that payback could possibly be made in the first year of production. A plant that costs £40M could produce £78M of helium gas every year.
Helium is a strategic element, required for defence and satellites (which is why America stopped their federal reserve auctions), as well as medical, IT and creating microprocessors. It is very environmentally friendly as it is not contaminated with carbon dioxide or a by-product of hydrocarbon production. The nitrogen can be vented to the air so there is no tailings dam or residue to get rid of.
In Tanzania, Helium does not fall under the ministry of energy and hydrocarbon code but under the industrial mineral code (alongside aggregates and cement). The royalty rate is fixed at 3% and government free carry at 16%.
He1 may be about to transition from being an explorer to a developer with a discovery. LB said in a presentation that in a success case, she anticipates being in production within 12 to 18 months of discovery.
There are still quite a few unknowns that make this a highly prospective share rather than a strong investment opportunity for institutional investors. 3.4Bn shares in circulation just being one of them.
I will probably get slated as a deramper again, but I have been invested here for years and still hold a number of shares.
Main concern is everyone thinking that confirmation of the Helium concentrations from the external lab will boost the SP. This did not happen with Noble even though they got confirmation of 2.2%. The external lab results will probably match with what we know, but unless the company declares this as a commercial discovery then I don't see it doing much to boost the SP. For those who are about to post "they've already discovered the Helium at 4.7%", a discovery is a technical term in the oil and gas sector. Just because I have gas in my kitchen does not make it a discovery.
Most companies tell their shareholders what they are working on. What are HE1 doing right now? They haven't said. We can guess that there is probably a fair amount of data modelling going on, but why have we not been kept in the loop.
Do we know the flow rate of the gas in the system? Nope. Another known unknown.
They may have good reason for not sharing the info and playing their cards close. That's fair enough. I'm just saying that unknowns cause doubts which can affect the SP as well as the shareholders.
Anything I've missed that we should be keeping an eye out for?
I think buying the rig was less about controlling costs and more about availability. They need to add a new department to the business and get people that know about rig ownership and all the pitfalls involved to manage hiring it out. Noble will surely be looking to get their flow rates tested and possibly some appraisal holes drilled soon.
A couple of months mentioned before Christmas. That may have included a delay over the holidays, but I don't think there would have been a months delay.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oNQ5bzok0WM&t=288s
All I know is we are getting closer to the results being released.
Don't the ISO containers get filled with liquid nitrogen to keep it from boiling off? But I guess we wouldn't be using our nitrogen for that. I believe most containers give around 42 days worth of storage before losses begin.
To show everything since the high in 2021 I had to use the daily chart. You can see the gaps for yourself on the 5min chart if you are feeling pedantic.
I am not saying that these gaps will be closed - just something I personally keep an eye out for with intraday movements. Something to do until the next RNS drops.
The SP will always have ups and downs. Right now there are 2 parts of the chart i am particularly interested in - where the gaps are. Those are at around 1.4 - 1.6 and at 4.5 - 5.5. There is no guarantee that the gaps will be closed, but this seems to be why people keep mentioning 1.5p.
For a much broader overview, this chart shows both our all time highs and lows, with a few trend lines thrown in.
https://invst.ly/13hgam