Member Info for Gibdog101

Quite a slow day of trading considering its results tomorrow , think a lot of people are sitting on their hands, be intresting to read between some lines tomorrow , the impairment has been overly priced in, think an increase in exploration cap ex , will be a posative sign.

Not sure what else we will glean tomorrow , as we know the group will post super profits .

Prehaps the impairment on assets allows for some tax write off , anyone have a firm answer on that ?

One week till results , I’m amazed that there wasn’t a more significant rebound on SP , likely due to geopolitics , writing off 25% of SP over the Sasa downgrade seems a little bit of a over reaction.

I don’t think we will see firm expansion or purchase new next week , but hopefully there is signs with drilling Cap ex ect ect .

Equally excited as some of the below comments , 3 quality assets booming prices in the metals the company has access to. Cracking 3 months of tin sales !

The operational update is at worst 3 weeks off , I’m amazed people are still selling , expect production near 100T PM with 110-120 going forward for FY 27 , death of the hedge that turned bad in May .

Really is looking posative , I was worried about geopolitics but TIN is robust in the face of that so far . Roll on the Op update ! Turning the corner here for sure !

Looks like Morgan Stanley took advantage of the recent price from increased their holding from 3.8% to 5% . Good vote of confidence there !

Ok chucking this out here as a bit of posative thinking .

So there has been a lack of substantive published results from the KZ drilling , and div was cut in Sept to retain more money in the company , now freeing up 27m equity . To me this feels like posistioning for a new project , I know nothing for sure , but it’s a strange thing to cut Div , then free up equity to pay shareholders , I don’t think this is coming as a bonus (exceptional div) I think this is being used to fund opening a new front for CAML with I whole heartedly welcome . Watch this space 2026 .

I’m working off 16p per share in circulation and the premuim being cancelled , 27m I think .

I don’t mind if some of that goes towards propping up Div , however 16p windfall plus Div per share would be a misuse IMO it should be used towards a JV or Aq.

TDT unsure on their average cost , but we know they subscribed at 3p recently for another £740k , I mean i would be amazed if they are sellling off stock so soon , and at such a modest return.

For me I just don’t see this as the seller .

It could be possible that a reasonably sized Pi is actually swing trading ATM between 4.2-3.7 range (100% isn’t me) the spread is often deadly, and that’s causing what feels like share resistance at this level , most the IIs seems like long term mining investors .

Just a thought GD

There is a price above, what the face value (par) of a share issue is , this is held as equity within the company at time of issue , I don’t know the total history of CAML share issues , and what what price with what premuim , to give a full answer . I think I read in 2024 results £27m of share equity . So I beleive this is a resolution to move that money out of equity and into GPF (general purpose funding) .

Happy to be corrected if I’ve miss read this , or I’m wrong on the equity value.

I hope …. This is being released to fund expansion exploration or acquisition .

A bumper Div although attractive doesn’t do anything for the 10 year outlook :)

Always positive @Richyf3 , weirdly there was a big trade late reported 750,000 buy on Friday.

All the Trubulance is externalities , of the geopolitical type. Changes nothing for me , all waiting on the next operational update due this month. Think any posative RNS would be wasted this week.

I can offer this bread crump of solice , oil prices increase mining costs , but also make lithium look more attractive in the long run, as renewables will take a boost from hydrocarbon supply squeeze.

Nesty fair , 4 years is a long time and really is extending the use of the phrase slow burner .

I agree that AV is a geologist first and foremost . “Kicking rocks” as he put it .

Hopefully he’s learnt , I’ve been here 2 years and they have felt slow, the only upside is that I’ve kept building a position here , that being said , as you point out if 2026 isn’t nailed on it will be more than frustrating likely costly !

Best of luck to you , and everyone else that’s been here for a shift , hope your tolerance is rewarded in spades !

Hey does anyone have a more reliable source for trading data than This site ?

The data has been well off accurate here for sometime , lse constantly shows more buys than sells by volume which simply can’t be true with the SP not moving .

Anyone know better data source ?

Ha Nesty is top slice a little at 26p likely get my cost average down to zero whilst still holding enough that should it ever pay a dividend i would unrepentantly troll all nay sayers :) but those numbers feel like a time scale measured in multiple

Years , with production across more than one of the assets . SQM could drive and deliver a 2nd site into production fairly swiftly , we will know within 12 months how likely that looks .

You are far more frustrated than me I think, me I’m annoyed but equally engrossed , I’ve other holdings that pay me quite nicely and intrest me not at all.

ATM maybe because of its small size and my ability to follow the story quite closely is my perversely enjoyable investment .

Hah very bullish 26p target , however his estimate of 0.06p loss per share would be disappointing .

I will have to rerun the numbers , I thought the last 3 months had been strong enough to make FY26 cash generative . Guess H1 wasn’t , and H2 hasn’t quite been strong enough to overcome that.

Maybe Q1 of FY27 is where the turn around will actually first show up as a posative EPs.

@HarChris many more upside potentials than down sides , 4 decent irons in the fire , V risk from a Tin price crash (which no one is predicting). Just frustrating at the moment , with the uncertainty of plant , only a few weeks till the operational update and that should cast some light on the situation. Just a waiting game right now , which is always the case in small miners.

Yea that’s true the treasury shares until cancelled are almost as good as cash in the bank.

I’ve no axe to grind with the share buy back , only that now the priority , prehaps has shifted a little more towards pipeline. I’d like to see something firm up in 2026 and some RNS from the drilling we have ongoing in H1.

Right, not sure on the accuracy of the trading data (used this site)

But circa 28M shares flagged as late reported unknown trades , if this is negotiated trade I’m wondering if it’s enough to trigger a TR-1 it would represent more than 1% of the stock , so it might push

Someone into TR1 zones

Yea there is over 15M late reported trades there, that haven't materially changed the SP, like a transfer more than a purchase or sale.

Humm hello , what's this about.

05-Mar-26 14:38:09 4.00 13,617,919 Unknown* 3.80 4.10 544.72k

100% we would have had to already spent the 11M USD , in order to not just return it , conversation to shares would be the very worst case , but its always good to view a deal from its worst downside.

Yep you cant Blame the investor for wanting to assurances on their money on, an asset we were unable to self prove.

Summary: Not the greatest deal, just the greatest deal that was available at the time :)

Yea TDT the put options was the bit that no one liked, and i think that goes someway to explaining the Luke warm market response to the news.

Clauses ii&iii being the concerning ones , and specifically the hidden unknown detail behind clause ii.

In all honesty i think we just have to be optimistic that this is never triggered , as some of the investment looks like its being spent already on videos haha.

in defence of AVs pants being pulled down, i think we entered into this venture from a really weak negotiating position, likely that talks started when the company as whole looked in a far more perilous position than i would assess it to be in today, with each passing month generating some operating cash.

I suspect this was the best offer that was forth coming, and in essence there was a binary option:

1. Take funding now, with clauses and caveats due to the companies value and fiscal position.

OR

2. Try to improve the companies balance sheet , and wait to further prove BW from internal funding in FY27 whilst cash generative.

Now i feel that if the company started CAP EX on BW now from its own operating cash, we would be more alarmed with that than the put option.

Clearly having in recent months entered a phase of being cash generative FY 27 and likely 28 need to be about consolidating the financial position , and developing UiS.

The only way to drive BW forward in the next year or two was a JV and that has come with caveats and clauses does not surprise me, for that to be convertible at 3p isnt ideal, but that is a factor of our weakness at the time of the deal. The Put option may very well become irrelevant, good drilling or tailing results at BW could make converting BWCAM's stake into stock completely unthinkable, but i see the risk of 300M new shares being issued as discomforting if it is triggered.

Lets review this PUT Option issue TdT once the first set of BW results are published, then we can decide how negative or nelglible those clauses are.

GD