Member Info for Gibdog101

Closing with a MC of 58M is crazy !

Why would ACAM pay another $40M to top up their BW stake to 49% when you could buy the whole operation for a little over that.

That MC is a joke when SQM and ACAM clearly value LR and BW at 80

Million USD

@ShadowLess 100% agree with you on that, the RNS is not in fact bad, its luke warm, tainted by the RNS that came before that suggested excellent performance, and rewarded the BOD like we had completed the full phase 2 expansion !

God knows what they will reward themselves if they hit 2000Tons a year.

morning fellow atm holders.

thought i would drop my morning musings here, for me there seemed to be a little bit of bed wetting over the rns, and specifically the 2nd jig plant.

firstly i dont disagree with the whole narrative that there seems to be over promising and under delivering, i think some of this is due to a lack of focus the company and its team is still tiny and is keeping a lot of plates spinning. personally don't want them to have less projects, but i do favour a real focus of driving tin to 2000 ton pa , mainly due to the horrid royalty that downscales as production upscale. a point on that if nothing changes this year which would **** most of us off, we should given a modest increase in output by pre concentration get 1200 tons, at which point the royalty does reduce which honestly is part of our aisc.

looking at goantagab , the fact that the jig plant is up complete and running , is a massive lever for the court case, who in essence are being asked to judge either in favour of wild like industry or mining, we have now demonstrated that the investment and equipment is in place. a decision not allowing the mining will show namibia to be a less friendly jurisdiction for investment. making that decision whilst the equipment is ready, and ready to provide employment the day after is now much harder for the court.

now onto the use as a pre concentrator which really seem to annoy people, i don't know the ins and outs of this so i'm allowing a little theorisation here.

this might be done as standard commissioning process, the plant had issues with fines that we all know about, this could be the team ironing out those issues before running the plant as stand alone. so in essence its commissioned and optimised before the goantagab ore arrives which is what we would want.

now all that being said the communication on the issue has been worst than poor, the points i've raised above could easily have been added to the update and would have offered a much forward looking outlook on that plant.

goantagab is the only short term catalyst i see in fy27 for revenue , the other projects may add sp value but not turnover or profits for some years.

the 2nd jig operating as a pre concentrator i suspect gets us to 1200 tons, the reason not to operate it on its own , might actually be due to lack of smaller plant and staff on site to run as a independent operation, that could change and add a couple more hundred tons. goantagab ore , and the now commissioned 2nd jig really changes these numbers.

summary , slower than hoped progress , realistic output of 1200tons fy27 , with potentials to smash that if goantagab comes online.

bw and lr could add sp value.

bottom line we have a bloody 2nd jig plant and we are waiting for a court decision to start feeding it, its a bold court that ignores invest and employment opportunities that are here and now. over potential employment driving tourists to look at rhinos.

@TrickyDicky2

I hear what you are saying , and I take it on board , the 2nd jig being used as a pre concentrator is optimal , and the concentrate numbers 20% up on Q4 last FY , don’t actually in themselves signal the best Q of production to date , think Q2 26 was actually stronger . However , we don’t know how long that 2nd jig has been pre concentrating for , might actually only have been working for the last month or so .

So I guess it’s a hard call on predicting production numbers for next Q going forward ,without any changes we might be at about 300 tons contained a Q. Which is 4-5M USD is sales per month, granted much of this is due to bullish tin .

However if last year I said to investors . 48-60m USD in sales in FY27 I think people would be content .

Now for the tricky bit , Can AV turns sales into profits.

I think also look at this as a new baseline 1100 Tons is now the new minimum production for the year ahead !

With upsides that can now get us to that hallowed place of reduced royalty.

Not happy , but content .

If people are disappointed with 20% increase in contained Tin , what would have actually made them happy. I think this articulates it’s not at full running capacity , it’s not operating independantly but it has started to add some value .

Slow for sure , disappointing under delivery for sure , but also progress.

FY 27 looks much more promising than FY26 . That for me is the take home , sure this business isn’t sky rocketing , but by god it’s de risked from the near failure of late FY25.

@HarChris yea sorry , just re-read that , jig plabt being used as pre concentrator .

Ok that’s good news for sure that finally that cap ex project is returning something .

Yes and keeping it ready for the Goant Ore could !

20% increase in tin concentrate in the last 3 months , that’s the important part !

Doesn’t specifically say the 2nd jig is online , but I’d like to know where that increase comes from.

Need clarity on that , seems production is now running at 100 Tons of concentrate a month. Good news , but not as good as we hoped , when considering the sliding royalty .

Ideally that can hit the same time as the geopolitics calms , no point chucking good news out during a crisis haha

What we thinking gents , update on the last day of March?

Hope you are right , I guess ultimately we only need one of these things to come true to change the sentiment on ATM. It’s alot of irons in the fire that’s for sure .

AV has been the wrong person to try build a non cash generative company , but if we start making money , it’s a rock kicking geologist on the ground that will seek out good licences and get them under the yoke. The man is geology obsessed and if we start making money , watch that translate to growth and new assets. I think I know what he wants to build , but he doesn’t say it because it’s pipedream stuff .

Had a small nibble myself today , but smaller than yours.

Let’s hope all that , is winding down and we can get back to bullish Tin .

Well gents , the slide pack is intresting but nothing substantively new there , should be a RNS this week.

Going to have a little add and try keep the faith.

2.5x growth is very punchy target , haha and finally one that the share holders will be pleased with even if he only manages half of that , which historically would be about right ha

Actually I disagree here , CAML super low production cost , make them very well insulated from a drop in price. Whilst some companies could fold , there really isn’t a feasible copper price that push Kz operation into non cash generative .

Weirdly lower copper might place us well for cheaper licences and acquisitions

Think most mining stock is taking a smashing today , not just CAML

Think nothing in the full year surprises anyone, Copper prices are still very good.

Sitting with $80m in bank up from $67m and this is post a $10M buy back, So the cash to stock situation is really good , and considering that the share premium should be cancelled and that money returned to the business, then we are sitting on cash to hand close to 1/3rd of our MC. Clearly Cancelling the premium frees up money, but money we dont seem to need unless there is a prospect of a purchase??? if there is it would have been good to see stronger indication of this in the statement, my thoughts are there has to be a underlaying reason to cancel the share premuim.

The impairment although already factored in as bad news at least demonstrates openness and a unwillingness to try run a asset past the point of profitability , so I'm kind of content with that.

The impaired me was RNS as $120M so this is slightly better news. still digesting the end of year results there.

Think the reaction in SP was over cooked, Dividends of 12P seems sensible , no further share buy back. still highly cash generative and the important line, although id like to see more made of it:

prioritising exploration drilling at the operation, and, importantly, a redoubling of our efforts to secure a material transaction through which to grow.

"I look forward to 2026 to see the fruits of these efforts, and to the drilling programmes planned at our Group exploration projects in Kazakhstan

Yea I’m hopeful that the production numbers at least suggest that the additional plant is processing something , in some capacity. 1000T this FY , would be a little disappointing .

The BOD just rewarded themselves quite heavily , it would be quite distasteful if that warrant RNS has been approved , whilst plant is still no up and running .

I await the update as keenly as most here , if there isn’t something suggesting commissioning and throughput , then you’ve got to ask yourself where is there priority . Low output , equals high royalty , it should be keeping the BOD awake at night .

Few weeks of operational update and seems to be trading badly this week. Little hit on tin price but still well over 40k.

Suprised at current SP , really thought enough was going on to support the mid 4-5p trading range seen a month or so ago , with break beyond that post update . Feels like the RNS has been too mixed recently need something solid without caveats , and and end to the BOD gifting