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This is a crazy cheap share compared with all other oilers.
Still can’t understand why it’s trading at third of its 2018 value? Was the debt less at that time? I can’t see that it was -
Oil was $80, briefly, in 2018 now heading to $100/bbl. Production isn’t declining at any major rate?
SP Should double within 6 months or capitalism ain’t working.
Sound energy, aside from the shameless ramping bs had one key issue very similar to PRD and that is distance to market.
So PRD needs big volumes to make this work.
To be fair to Sound they had logged and tested actual gas in their reservoirs which is more than can be said with PRD.
As I say let’s see what the independent CPR says. It may be worth the risk but no doubt there’s a lot of risk until they get a decent test.
How is this completely derisked?
240 bopd initial production is less than a 1/4 of the 16z initial rate. And we all know what happened their. Best to get some financial update before getting too excited. Wonder how much cash remains?
What does the management team actually do at this company? Is there a plan to replace the gas resources being drained or are have they set their alarms to wake them up once the gas is drained and SP is approaching zero.
As far as I can see nobody owns anything in this circle
of despair. KOHN was set up as a shell by ADM. there’s no production or even actual reserves to ‘buy’ into just an option if expensive litigation is ‘successful’ to drill a 20-30 mm Usd speculative well into an area the Majors have rejected as sub economic.
Completely nuts.
240 bopd needs to be sustained over a few months
We all know rates drop rapidly before stabilising so 100 to 150 bopd stabilised rate required imo (200k USD revenue). Remember 16z came on at 1000 bopd and collapsed to diddly in 3 months.
Thanks for that Blastoid - good point well argued
So I take it then you think Chariot were the first to drill this and find gas? They weren’t the last operator and no doubt all the Majors have left this discovery undeveloped for the last 10 years or more. What Buffoons those Exxon and Shell types are.
This needs an updated CPR to tell us if there’s a material change in the 2P gas volumes and an independent view on whether the economics work. To think otherwise is a bit silly.
I note it says Shell maybe find oil in the Orange Basin
Why then if it’s true would a discovery in the Orange Basin improve the chances of oil in GBPs basin ..‘Walvis?’
Surely it would encourage everyone to focus to the south and drop their blocks in the north?? Never got this . All recent wells in the north were duds.
There’s no way in a million years that an AIM co like CHAR with little to no cash can bring deep water gas on stream.
It needs a Major as a partner. So really they are back to square 1 and a farm out. Only on AIM can a company drill into an existing gas discovery and claim it’s ‘discovered’ gas. Billion dollars needed to get this into production, if it’s seen as commercial?
As I said Sound energy is your red flag. There’s no evidence of any major gas leg is the recent well and gas shows are seen everywhere so it means nothing. Neogene v Triassic or nutech this and that is just obfuscation. Most of the gas in North Africa is actually in Triassic or older and very little is in Morocco. When one sees dubious well results with comment that it could be huge I’d be sceptical. Anyow the CPR will clarify. My feeling is it won’t be bullish.
Tullow already have a producing asset hence the increase in value. To date Afentra have nothing and the cheap good value deals are likely disappearing rapidly given oil pushing towards $100. They may already have missed the boat. You can’t buy much with $30mm
TT - frankly I wouldn’t touch this until the CPR states it’s tested a connected meaningful volume of gas.
There’s nearly always some gas in Morocco wells (see Sound) but given the drilling and logging issues and ambiguous reporting, this is many miles away from proven. And as we saw with theSound Energy debacle one needs a fair bit of gas to make commercial progress. IMV this is a dud but happy to wait for CPR.
Malcy gets nothing right
The obvious point is is that the gas discovery already existed and they have re drilled it and surprise surprise have found gas. Good news is there might be a bit more than first thought but this is a million miles from production. So now what?
Reading some of the reports one would think they had made a discovery. They haven’t, the gas was discovered 10+ years ago and abandoned because it was deemed sub economic.
The gas price is better now for sure but this’ll need a billion dollars of development $$ to drill up and bring to market so it won’t be something Char can do. They need to farm out.
The test, if there is one will be oil that remains on the rig not transported to a vessel. So this and the nonsense about seismic are just red herrings. However, I would say that the longer the rig stays on site the more likely it is that they have found something to test. If it were dry they’d be up and off asap.