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Spike they were ‘dumped’ them from the last permit for not doing the work program in time so unless they shoot the 3D why would it be different this time?
It’s a question not a deramp.
Surely they need to show the 3D cash for an extension to be granted? I don’t know ? What do you think?
Hawkspear it’s not rocket science little AIM cos like BLOE don’t have the cash to drill loads of development wells at 100 pct. So best thing is always to attract a bigger more competent operator. BLOE are as is now painfully obvious are not competent. The CEO is not an oil co specialist or even qualified eng. Farmout is better than a massive shareholder dilution to pay for yet more uneconomic wells imv.
6 months left on licence? So why would anyone pay to farm in when they can wait and negotiate with the gov in September?
They don’t need extra funding until they secure the extension in the block which runs out in 6 months. That’s the critical thing. Will Namcor grant an extra year if they don’t have cash for a commitment 3D? It’s highly doubtful
Looks to me like this is the last throw of the dice in Egypt as these reservoirs look pretty much played out. - Kuwaitis targeting 5.5 mmbo so 2.5 mm recoverable? That’s less than 1mmbo net. If that’s the best they can do it’s defo on its last legs.
Idiotic trolling..
Initially the reserves were ‘infinite’ now 1p lasts until 2027
However 1P is not what they can produce from existing wells so they will need lots of new investment to get there.
The 100 bcf is what in theory they can get by managing existing wells which doesn’t get you much further than late next year. For sure they need to get on spending or the gas production will collapse.
That haven’t ‘cracked the geology’ at all. These fields were discovered and produced for years before BLOE by soviets with little or no tech. The wells all flow ok for a few weeks and water out rapidly so are not economic or profitable. Not a problem if your a communist but terminal if your an investor looking for a return. And please let’s not start the 250 bopd for a year is X mm dollars nonsense again, we all know the well will decline rapidly. It probably already down to 100 bopd.
They need a farm in or this is dead.
The 2.9 billion claim is the total for a whole bunch of prospects . Majors would be interested if it were in one prospect. But drilling 8 or 9 exploration wells to get the total up is not going to happen I’d suggest. 1 in 100 + chance stuff.
Main issue though is lack of time remaining on licence. It runs out in 6 months. A big boy would surely just wait and take it from Namcor,, if they were interested that is. GBP had 3 bn claimed in the neighbouring block and could not get a farm in over several years so why is this any different? Answers on a postcard to Shell HQ London.
They only have the permit secured until End August so that’s the pressing problem not a placing.
They would have to raise $10 mm or so for a 3D to extend as that’s the condition of extending and they won’t do that.
Needs a farm in pronto.
JD to answer the question:
Why is SP not going up?
Cash flow positive? No latest detail on this but over the last couple of years they have clearly demonstrated it’s not. This is the main problem.
Secondly, there’s no independent view ( CPR) and nobody believes anything the management say.
Until they remedy the above it will slide.
In order to farm out they need to get another extension on the licence which presently runs out in 6 months. Not clear why Namcor would grant an extension if there’s interest from Majors. TRP have years left on their licences yet the SP has not really moved much makes no sense..
Exxon, Shell and Totals technical teams missed this opportunity which has been sitting around for decades during which time they all invested billions into the country but Zenith disagree and think it’s a stonker? Sign me up..
The chance of this development being funded via an AIM rights issue has to be zero. Via an ADM rights issue it has to be even less than that.
This is not complicated as Malcy says it’s ok if the well production doesn’t decline....but we know that the well production always declines in these fields, and rapidly as the water comes in. So 240 initial production isn’t quite enough to ease fears of production quickly going sub economic again. We had exactly the same discussion with all the previous wells. Needs proper CPR and financial report or it’s dropping again.
I suspect they have definitely found something
If it’s 60m gross then not so significant - Reuters is ambiguous
However 60m net oil sand would be probably be a bit of a monster find.
Nope it doesn’t work like that. M&P ( now Indonesia state oil co) do all the work and bill WEN.
CPR from 2020 suggested 100 bcf in the ‘barn’ before more wells and development effort required. So at present production 36bcf a year it takes you to ? Q3 next year.
Gas from existing wells is running out quickly so they need a drilling plan or a new asset..or two
No they can’t
There’s never any information from the management on commercials no up to date CPR or independent report it’s just the same old drill and hope. If the 240 bbls a day doesn’t decline too quickly it might break even for a bit. There’s little cash remaining so we do know they need a raise to progress.
Looks real, probably best to wait for official announcement.
60m net oil in a Stratigraphic trap would be pretty sizeable I suspect. Could be big news if confirmed. Well I never :-)
Surely M&P operate and WEN are sleeping partners?
Yes they turn a profit but it’s like selling all the hay in your barn without investing in next years harvest. They meet more wells or investment in another asset or obviously the asset will shrink to next to nothing. It’s not complicated.