RE: l l o y2 Aug 2022 03:19
An increase in the first-half dividend, upgraded profit guidance for the year and very modest loan losses and litigation costs all put a nice sheen on the interim results from Lloyds Banking Group and bolster the investment case for the bank we set out in May, especially as the valuation appears to be pricing in a much gloomier outlook.
The shares trade at a 17pc discount to the 54.2p the bank’s tangible book value per share, offer a 5pc yield and come on a single-digit earnings multiple. The economic outlook may be difficult but it can be argued that the stock is pricing in a lot of the potential bad news already.
Lloyds’ shares have fallen by about 20pc from this year’s peak in January and trade no higher now than they did in late 2012, even though the bank has paid out £11.8bn in dividends and returned another £2.1bn in cash to shareholders via buybacks over the past decade.
That equates to 45pc of the bank’s current market value and there are further cash returns to come: Lloyds is increasing its first-half dividend by more than expected, to 0.8p a share from 0.67p a year ago.
Despite concerns over the fragile state of the British economy, the risk of a housing market slowdown and increased bad loan losses, the first-half pre-tax profits of £3.7bn beat forecasts.
The interim numbers also underpinned full-year 2022 pre-tax profit forecasts of £6.6bn, especially as the chief executive, Charlie Nunn, raised guidance for two key swing factors for the bank’s earnings.
First, he now expects a net interest margin of more than 2.8 percentage points, compared with a previous forecast of 2.7 percentage points and last year’s outcome of 2.54 percentage points. Second, the asset quality ratio is expected to come in below the earlier expectation of 0.2pc. That means fewer loan losses than expected.
Put those alongside an unchanged forecast for operating costs of £8.8bn and Lloyds is now looking for a return on tangible equity of around 13pc against 13.8pc last year, when Nunn had initially steered the market to expect something like 11pc for 2022.
Any profit forecast upgrades will bolster confidence in Lloyds’ ability to keep returning any surplus capital to shareholders via dividends and buybacks. The forecast dividend yield represents a premium to the FTSE 100 and the earnings multiple comes at a discount. This factors in a lot of potential pain already and it might not take a lot to get investors to take a more positive view of the shares in view of the lowly expectations. Lloyds still looks very cheap. Keep buying.
Questor says: buy
Ticker: LLOY
Share price at close: 45.06p