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Well , Canada is looking strong wouldn’t be surprised to see 30p equivalent.

Paul likes to keep it local, but it’s a thought given the work we’d have for it the service company may commission or upgrade one, how many wells to drain Royston & Kraken?

Thanks Tobin, well we could perhaps drill three deep holes per year with one rig, given how they might produce might be enough gas to add per annum. :0

Thanks for thoughts, I didn’t mean to sound critical of the company it’s just only a few weeks ago (proactive) it seemed gas development was full on and “ we’re finished we that” was PB answer when asked about dilution. In fact it’s quite the opposite I’m becoming too passionate and impatient.
Cascadura is currently our best asset if you include the 200ft of bypassed pay with C/Deep and 200 more from the intermediate zone( present at Chinnock) plus the deeper deep we could end up with in excess of 2000ft of pay!! There was a discussion about drop off here recently such a well could be be managed to produce at full bore for a very long time.

Does anyone know how many rigs exist on Trinidad which are capable of drilling the sub thrust sheet? Probably to be sure they would need to be rated at 16000ft. We are currently blowing the cobwebs off one but are there anymore? The reason being any development wells at chin/ casa would surely want to target this area and whist fantastic results so far ( and expected) we’ve had two technical failures at Cascadura. With talk of returning to the oil fields out west ( shocking use of capital when compared to the gas play) made me wonder if it was just the lack of drilling capacity.
Before anyone complains about my capital comment it’s just my opinion the gas wells will return at least 5 times the income for the capex, when we’ve got so much cash we don’t know what to do with it fine, it’s extra income.

Fame at last you are a thread :-), in answer to your earlier question I’m going to put my neck on the line and say 50%(£2.45) this will be an incremental process concluding with the independent reserves update. Although there maybe a pre Royston influence creeping in by then.
Other than that I’m probably an oddity in the investment world as I don’t do lots of research, more of a seat of your pants/ gut instinct investor but it’s made me a multi millionaire,”unqualified fog”? I like share with this board one of the biggest lies “ past performance isn’t a guide to the future, of course it is
Addressing your concerns, this share now represents more than 20% of my invested portfolio but it is a consequence of growth not me wilfully throwing money at it, people who remove their original investment and say they have a free ride are deluded they’ve missed out!
£12 you suggested earlier what’s the downside? Investing is essentially gambling , from here , say £2.50 upside 500%+, downside barring catastrophic accidents £2?
Do you run a fantasy share league? Mine’s worth ten times my actual portfolio!!!!! It influences all my decisions.

ACTX,
"Transactions where an investment firm has bought together two clients orders with the purchase and the sale conducted as one transaction involving the same volume and price"

You’re absolutely spot on Bully but unfortunately there’s not much sentiment in this sector atm, but we are are going to be 99% gas soon ( I hope) which will valued much higher in the future unlike the black stuff which is constantly being propped up by opec and I’m of the opinion it’s not going to get much better. I wouldn’t rule out a few price shocks because of under investment but longer term it’s down hill.

Getting a little silly now perhaps I ought to wait until we’ve got 1TCF before doing the math for 9, although there’s nothing wrong with those “what if” moments.

My post from 11 dec( before contract details were known).

Txp11 Dec 2020 12:29
Hi corpse, I tend to prefer reserves based valuations.
When shell acquired Carapal Ridge in 2003 it’s thought they paid 50% of wellhead value for the perceived reserves things may have changed so let’s use 35%.
1 tcf x$2500mmcf= $2.5bl x0.8 (our share)=$2bl /1.3(conversion to sterling)=£1.54bl/ 209ml(shares)=£7.40 x0.35 =£2.59 per share.
Notes: this I feel is quite conservative as there’s no amount for the liquids+ 20% and if we get a linked gas price $2500per million cubic feet will exceeded going forward. Next just times the above figure by 2,3,4..... depending on many TCF of gas we have.

9x £2.59= £23.30 per share if we were taken out more than double this if we produce it.

“rig is already on chinook site and flow test already commenced “.As the company stated they were going to test the lower(sub trust) section first can we assume it’s charged and flowing.very significant event if so. :D.

Ok, thanks people but just for the record I think you’re wide of the mark.
Firstly what you suggest is out of context Xav was providing a list of events that would help move the sp by 4-500% in the coming 12 months everything listed( I think) related to the Ortoire block. Secondly he mentions the license directly after Royston test( following his train of thought). The subject of Royston extending beyond our block has been discussed here recently with the possibility of a JV. The new seismic is also mentioned. Returning to my first point ( I apologise is this offends anyone) but I what way would the renewal of these shallow fields which produce a few hundred barrels a day help lift the sp in our current range if you to suddenly magic away Ortoire the sp would be back at 12p.

With respect I think you’re confusing lease with licence.

licence extension, thoughts anyone? Certainly intriguing that he should use such a phrase.

Independent evaluation was p2 45mboe, p3 72mboe.
Now that we have proved the continuity of the structure I’m going to use the p3 figure.
We originally tested 160ft in the lower zone and 345 in the upper with equal flow from both.
Assuming 35mboe in each we’ve an additional 200ft of pay in the lower zone( +44mboe )and 300+ ft in the intermediate below(The original Cascadura Deep which was touted at up to 500 BCF)not withstanding we haven’t reached the bottom, (+65mboe ) pro-rata.
180mboe approximately 1TCF plus 12% liquids and then there’s the Deep Sub sheet to consider.
The initial test at chinnock should be quite interesting as it’s the sub thrust sheet beneath Cascadura.

PB gave us the heads up on Coho FCF recently we should use that as guidance.

Someone mentioned January so I thought I’d remind investors ( and the passers by) what early next year is going to look like, readers should pay attention to the enthusiasm and choice of words not just the technical stuff.

James Shipka, Chief Operating Officer, stated:



"The Cascadura structure continues to exceed our expectations, and the Cascadura Deep-1 exploration well confirms that this is a unique structure with tremendous potential. Although we were unable to drill to our planned total depth, the information gathered while drilling and the hydrocarbon accumulations encountered are truly exceptional. Not only did we encounter a massive section of turbidite deposits nearly 3,000 feet thick, we established the intermediate thrust sheet as a viable reservoir and expanded the known boundaries of the sands tested in the Cascadura-1ST1 well. In the intermediate section, wireline data identified in excess of 300 feet of prospective pay in two thrust sheets, one of which has not been previously encountered in the area. While those 308 feet of sand met the threshold for pay based on log data, wellsite sampling saw hydrocarbon indicators throughout the entire section which we aim to gain a better understanding of through our production testing program. In the sands previously evaluated in Cascadura-1ST1, we were able to not only confirm the continuity of the structure, we were able to identify the base of the sand package at nearly 200 feet below the total depth of the original well. Finally, the information obtained at Cascadura Deep-1 provides great insight into what was observed at the Chinook-1 well which the Company expects to commence production testing later this month."

Interesting news Tobin, someone on Twitter asked about the northerly extent of the seismic. Tbh it’s always looked as if Royston extents beyond our northern boundary. Does anyone know how this might work in Trinidad? Do the owners to the north get a % ? Or can we apply for an extension?

Hi corpse, I tend to prefer reserves based valuations.
When shell acquired Carapal Ridge in 2003 it’s thought they paid 50% of wellhead value for the perceived reserves things may have changed so let’s use 35%.
1 tcf x$2500mmcf= $2.5bl x0.8 (our share)=$2bl /1.3(conversion to sterling)=£1.54bl/ 209ml(shares)=£7.40 x0.35 =£2.59 per share.
Notes: this I feel is quite conservative as there’s no amount for the liquids+ 20% and if we get a linked gas price $2500per million cubic feet will exceeded going forward. Next just times the above figure by 2,3,4..... depending on many TCF of gas we have.

Smasher, it’s my understanding that the primary target ( cascadura deep) was intersected at 7600ft it was after this when drilling on to the sub thrust sheet they encountered another layer lurking beneath which caught them out. If I’m wrong all will become clear shortly it’s my belief that they are using SWD technology after the increased clarity and detail in the updated presentation post Chinnock, the reflection if real properly relates to the multiple sheets and it’s thickness as we’re not through it yet.