Member Info for GabrielOak

Missed this in the quote, "To date, only one antigen test has received Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) from the FDA. Quidel Corporation received EUA approval on 8 May for its Sofia antigen test: a test that requires a nasal swab and has to be conducted in a CLIA-waived laboratory. Despite this, the value of its stock rose by c.$2bn, illustrating the market’s perception of the potential value of an effective antigen test. This test is reported to have 80% sensitivity and 100% specificity."

I think that there are numerous things going on:

During a Finn Cap interview recorded from 3 weeks ago, AS states that by End of May and 2nd June there would be news on Cytiva....we are now the 8th
The Finn Cap (post raise) research piece read as follows:
Avacta partners are developing a number of antigen tests (both point of care and laboratory-based) using the Affimer reagents generated by Avacta to determine whether a person has COVID-19 disease and an active SARS- CoV-2 infection (unlike an antibody test, which determines whether a person has been infected in the past). One of the main advantages of an antigen test is the speed of the test, which can provide results in minutes, unlike molecular diagnostic (PCR) tests, which are generally more accurate, but take time. Antigen tests are very specific for the virus, although generally not as sensitive as molecular PCR tests. This means that positive results from antigen tests are highly accurate, but often with a higher chance of false negatives, so negative results do not rule out infection.

Then Myles posts something over the weekend that broadly reads as, "Look over here at BAMS, don't look at the test (yes, the same test that took the shares from 20p to 220p)...the BAMS test is the dark horse."

I think the market is sensing that the test is not a slam dunk...or else we would have had some hints at it the other way.

Written by a nervous holder...

It is an exciting time at Open Orphan, and we are looking to capitalise on the opportunity to deliver rapid growth in the near term by converting some of our c. £160m pipeline of revenue opportunities."

https://avacta.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/AVCT-%E2%80%93-Moderna-%E2%80%93-06-February-2019.pdf

Key phrases:
Other key features of the collaboration were:
? Clinical milestones: Milestone payments based on clinical development
progress. It is believed that the total value of these payments could reach
several tens of millions of dollars.
? Royalties: A small percentage of the net sales achieved by any drugs derived
from the Affimer technology.

Apologies if already posted:

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05-video-saliva-accurate-covid-.amp

Video on saliva and COVID. Extremely encouraging.

Fairview...I welcome your thoughts here...the investment case has to stand up to debate.

One thing I would say, CF isn't going to be doing them for free...he doesn't strike me as the type.

"Even if we deliver a fraction..." X2 was a standout comment as well as the repeat (as Sparkington observed) of "transformational" in the cold light of day...

That scratched where it was itching...

Sports, agreed...that the tricky line he is having to walk...

Thanks Deepjoy...I agree with what you write that CF's intentions are reasonably based and keeping retail investors in mind...

My simple point is as follows: you can't dangle carrots, not expect the donkey to salivate and then tell the donkey to be a good boy and not salivate. Life doesn't work like that..

CF is walking a tricky balance:

on the one hand,

"Sleeping giant"
"Lottery ticket" we have
1 share cert will say orph / the other will say Imutex...you get Imutex for free (zero on balance sheet)
Solid service business with great revenue: should be valued (3 x revs value of £50mln X 3 = ??)
Great pipeline
Expect news
"Transformational" deal with Quotient

On the other:

Shares are to high at £60 mln
Wait for news and then buy
masses of liquidity, take some profits and get back in lower
Let's not get ahead of ourselves

Given the market (for longer term investors) looks out 1-2 years, how can he be saying the above positives without expecting the share price to build in anticipation.

This is NORMAL for markets.

What is not normal is for a CEO / EXEC chair to be giving specific advice on the share price. He should be presenting to the market the probables, possibles, impossibles of the ORPH proposition and letting the market decide how to price that.

Bazza, can you ask the following:

"At the share soc event on Monday after a good run on the shares, you mentioned that the shares had got ahead of themselves and that there was more than enough liquidity to trade in and out. Consequent to your comments, the liquidity has dried up and the price has dropped by 20% with people openly saying that they sold because of your communication at this event, could you either tell everyone to buy or do what CEO's are supposed to do and not communicate about your views on the share price?"

Thanks

As has already been posted: https://youtu.be/IO-N_NT71a0

Last night, 45 minutes and 40 seconds while CF is answering a key man risk question he lets out a comment, "Look, being perfectly honest with you, this Quotient deal had nothing, and I emphasise nothing to do with me and I am getting the praise for it...its transformational for us...that was people within the company being freed up."

Transformational...with details to follow: sounds interesting

Need to re-listen but I thought I heard CF say that the Quotient partnership was "transformational"

It came near the end and he said it in passing...

Unless he was buying into the top slice advice...

Agreed!!

If IMUTEX is reviewed favourably in the Lancet and then lists shortly afterwards on the NASDAQ then ORPH presents a very interesting proposition. Buy the shares (without Imutex) and see potential upside on that alone

PLUS a free share in some exposure to an IPO and possible crazy American valuations.

What is not to like

"20+p" price I use is theoretical...I do not know what price Cathal is targeting, only that it is logical he will be targeting a sale of the business as this is his main way to sell shares himself.

Cathal can only easily sell his shares by way of an overall sale of the business (or the hiving off of components of the business...). Other than this method he is trapped in unless he releases shares at a corporate placing event for "strong demand from institutions". If he sells shares in the open market then this will be taken as a very poor sign..."if he is selling then so should I!"

Anyone unconnected with the company and owning less than 3% is free to buy and sell shares with no repercussions beyond affecting the day to day supply / demand metrics of the share price.

Anyone connected to the CO has to publicise any share purchases or sales.

Cathal may be unable to get out of the shares if there is a huge spike in the price because it will present negatively to a potential portfolio buyer. If he has targeted ~20+ p (£110mln) as a selling price it means that is what he is targeting as a sale price for the business. His eyes are on this because this is the way he sells shares.

If the shares are trading at 30+pence then does that put off a buyer?? Possibly / possibly not...depends what someone is prepared to pay (and what shareholders are prepared to accept!)...but that "maybe" would most likely overshadow Cathal's exit plan.

Logically, splitting off Imutex and listing it on NASDAQ puts him in the same boat as everyone else for that proportion of the ORPH share value...he will most likely not be connected with the business and he will presumably be sub NASDAQ publicity thresholds.

Therefore, what will his message be(?):1 a pro Imutex narrative and 2 try to keep the price of ORPH where it helps him to achieve his (well justified) exit...however, here is the conundrum though: if you want exposure to Imutex (and it looks VERY interesting) then the ONLY way to do this is to buy OPRH shares.

I have been emailing Cathal to try and connect and am looking forward to learning more but I think this explains the counter-intuitive rhetoric that seems to suggest a lid on the share price while also maintaining excitement.

Hey Swap...how did you buy them?