Member Info for G_G_G

I'm hoping for it to be an exciting few weeks. If we get confirmation of fcf / divi and a decent f/o in the coming weeks there will be a lot of very happy people here. SP of 10-12p all day long with a few more pennies before spudding the first well.

Looks like the direction of travel. I'm not saying it's warranted, but if gold shows some further weakness then there'll be a drop to this support level. I think the quarterly report will make a few exit as well. As much as people here are saying it's 'known', it's quite different when people read 'missed guidance', 'high AISC' etc. I can't see the sp dropping much beyond the 28p level, or for very long. Great for bargain hunters as there's an easy 50-100% potential in the next 12 months from this 28-30p range. GLA

Sorry my response is assuming we give up all of the Nth Sea assets i.e. we don't retain anything.

Probably not. My base case f/o has 30% retained ownership, free carry on 2 drills (cost circa £30-35m) plus £5m cash. We get £20-25m in value for a free roll of the dice. If we find that 100m recoverable we are then sitting on 30m barrels of Brent, which will be ultra low cost given nearby infrastructure, and we're beautifully diversified between oil and gas in Canada and the North Sea (both safe jurisdictions). We're also sitting on solid upside in Canada and no doubt in the wider acreage in the Nth Sea. I think the situation I've described is worth far more to our sp than a 7p cash offer of £50m. Having said that if they strike nothing then 7p looks pretty darn good :) AIMHO

Fellas I think you need to look at other f/o's with bigger v smaller companies, and then take into account the overall environment, which isn't all rosy and positive for oil. Based on this I've said in the past a f/o success case would be retaining 30%, 2 free carry appraisal drills, plus a small up-front fee in the order of $5m. Graham ad Majid are good negotiators, but as much as I'd like us to retain 50%, get 4 free-carry drills and $10m, it's just not going to happen. Maybe in a $100poo market but certainly not now. If we get my more measured f/o agreement I'd expect it to add at least 2p to our sp, and another 1-2p on spud of first well. They strike a solid oil column and it's a big fat ? as to how much we re-rate again.

Good thing is we're approaching the 6.5-7p channel that I hoped we'd be in at the end of this week. It's a great level to attack double digits if we get some good fcf / dividend news, and or a f/o. I don't think we'll breach 10p with f/o news alone, but I'd expect us to be sitting in the upper end of the 8-9p range. We get some good fcf / dividend news and we'll shoot straight into double digits very easily. AIMHO GLA

Hate to say I told you so but I did mention we'd be in the 5-5.5p channel post the last update. The market is fickle, so any signal that we have to wait 1-3 months (at best) to get the only news that really matters i.e. tariff approval, is going to result in a downward drift of the sp. My estimate is we'll get closer to 5p support over the next couple of weeks and then we'll start to see some buying come back. I've got funds ready for when we get closer to 5p and I have no doubt others do as well. Will see soon enough if I'm right. AIMHO GLA

Hi guys, good to see some spirited debate on this forum again. Most of you will know I like to stay as measured as I can when looking at this company and others. It gets to the point I'm accused of being a deramper as often as being called a ramper of the companies that I own - JAdam you know this :)

Anyway for what it's worth, I see the options as a good thing. Staff have been given options to buy into the company they work for (good thing). The number of options is f'all, and they need to pay for them at a rate that's 22% higher than the last raise. This is all good especially when you consider these are assets our 'deal maker' bod know f'all about so you want to hold onto your experienced staff.

They receive 1/3rd of f'all now (after paying 6.1p). Another 1/3rd if we exit H1 with 95% of the oil rates promised by mgt. And the final 1/3rd is for +50% production or 2P reserve upgrade of 25mboe. The second 1/3rd is to ensure we stay at 95% production, which is good for shareholders as it underpins mgt promises of fcf, dividends etc. The final 1/3rd of f'all is given after a decent acquisition, or a Serenity drill strike (remember that field we're trying to f/o). This is all good news and I'm pleased our mgt (who I still don't trust) are looking to reward staff for delivering on mgt's promises. It's not like they're giving away tens of millions of free options to mgt for past failures. Again, anyone who knows me on this forum would remember my view on that, which is another argument that I'd rather not get into this morning.

All good signs that I'd like to think are part of getting ducks in a row prior to fcf or f/o news. AIMHO GLA

FF, no it's not that simple. BOEPD means 'barrels of oil equivalent per day'. The 'equivalence' isn't in price, rather in energy equivalence. So there will be a variance on how much they receive for each equivalent barrel of oil. As many have pointed out already, there's a lot of different prices for our basket of goods. The main thing to remember is all those prices are higher than when the bod started providing example EBITDA and fcf figures. So there's no wriggle room for them not to deliver on their most recent claims. If they can make good on these claims the re-rate will be strong, as it not only proves the business case, but also proves they're not full of ****. This last point is worth a penny or two to our share price, such is the distrust of the bod due to recent history. AIMHO GLA

I'm surprised we haven't had a little bit of fomo kicking in by now. Still, I'm happy with the sp holding above 6p. I think we'll move up to the mid-6's by end of next week if we don't have news. Then we just need Majid and Graham to come good on their words and we'll have a nice springboard hopefully closer to 10p. AIMHO GLA

Not sure if this will post - https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/112320-aeco-hub-boasts-strongest-winter-prices-in-years-gas-power-share-stands-firm

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/112320-aeco-hub-boasts-strongest-winter-prices-in-years-gas-power-share-stands-firm

The way I'm looking at it is Graham and Majid have mentioned fcf and dividends for the past couple of months. When they first made these statements both oil and gas were not at the levels we're seeing now. We have maybe a third of our value linked to oil prices, which are strong. And the remainder to AECO, which are above average v past few years and have also improved over the past couple of months. I don't believe they have any wriggle room now. Their statements weren't linked to 'future prices', and Majid is acutely aware of what they've said in the past not being delivered, as per his last interview. I believe there's a significant amount of money sitting on the sidelines here. If they show fcf and announce a dividend at even half of what they've promised we'll jump. Those following will also know there's a f/o that's 'with lawyers', which will provide a couple more pennies to our sp initially, and a couple more again when we spud the first appraisal well (hopefully in the spring). But first we need to see some financials and promises delivered. SP holding above 6p with this morning's selling is a good sign for next week. With fomo kicking in we may be closer to 7p pre-news this month. AIMHO GLA

One more point from me, my ideal scenario is they announce the fcf / dividend payment first, and then we get the f/o news. The fcf will put a higher floor under the sp, and if the numbers are good it will provide the perfect springboard for the f/o to take us into double digits and stay there. Hopefully both pieces of news this month, with a spud committed in the spring. If we get f/o news first it could get a bit bumpy and I'm not sure we'll necessarily end up in the same place.

Barnyards (Mace), looks like the window is closing.

Barnyards (Mace), where the f@ck have you come from and what's the point of your posts exactly? Barnyards (Mace) you clearly like to dabble in oil so I'm guessing you've seen this pop up on your screen as being on the move. You can get in here for another week or so in the low 6's, but I expect we'll be solidly into the 6's by the end of next week as we'll be in the 2nd half of Jan with fcf / dividend news due any day, POO is strong and steady, f/o can drop any time, and we're still very under-valued. Market knows this, which is why we have momentum. Try not to feel too bad about missing the 4's and 5's as soon you're going to miss the 6's, 7's and maybe even the 8's. GLA

Bang on JAdam. It's now down to the bod delivering on their words, which they have uttered numerous times now.

POO is not just good, but strong. As I mentioned yesterday the move by the Saudi's has put a floor under the price until end-March, which quotas have not only been agreed til then, but is also when the Saudi 1M bopd cut ends. Many on here would count me as a pessimist as I like to be a little more measured in my predictions but if the bod deliver on fcf and dividend then we're going to be sitting in the 8-10p channel. And with a decent f/o we'll be 10-14p. This is my prediction for the immediate aftermath of these announcements. If poo stays at this level until end-H1, which I'm confident it will, then I'm expecting us to be closer to 15p than 10p. And when we're in the run-up to spudding the first appraisal well on Serenity I think we'll be comfortably sitting in the 15-20p channel (again with poo over $50). If we strike more than 50m recoverable (with 15m+ ascribed to us) then add another 5p. Lots and lots of money to be made here. It reminds me of when the Iron Ore market turned. Those companies that survived (or timed their entry well) went up 3-10x in 18 months. What I'm sure of here is if the bod deliver on their promises we're a guaranteed 2x, and over a few more months with poo being supportive we're a 3x, which would still only value us at £125m. Market is just starting to wake up by the looks of things. We're into the 6's from next week. AIMHO GLA

With WTI at $50 then I'd be surprised if we don't leave the 5's in the coming days / weeks. There's an easy 50-100% here depending on results and f/o confirmation. There will always be profit takers but they seem to be tiny 10% traders - We're not seeing 250-500k trades rolling through. This will of course happen when good news hits. And the trades will be going in one direction, unless of course Majid and Graham have been lying to us, which would no doubt create a lot of havoc. I'm also expecting any weakness will be bought into. Not long to wait now. GLA

Sorry fellas it's not 17% up. There was a bull**** little trade that dropped the sp to 5.3p at the end of day. Real sp was closer to 5.6p. We're still a good 10% up at the moment but I put that down to a significant increase in poo, and what I said in my first post - The move by the Saudi's yesterday caught everyone off-guard and by cutting 1m bopd it has put a floor under the price at $50 Brent. This cut lasts until the end of March, and OPEC + NOPEC have also agreed their quotas until then. Add to this the stock is grossly undervalued, and news is expected on two fronts i the next month that could be worth another 4-8p and you have your 10% rise. I kicked things off this morning with 200k at 5.78p. This stock will move into the 6's until news, which I'm hoping will be delivered in quick succession and will put to bed all the distrust the market has in the bod. If the news is really good on both fronts don't be surprised to see 12-14p. I'm banking on 10-12p. AIMHO GLA

Benjan1, as someone who has been in and out of nccl over the past couple of years (and made money), you shouldn't bank on 3 months as a timeframe. There's a huge amount that has been achieved, but make no mistake there's still a huge amount to go before 'major final hurdles' are cleared. The only major hurdle that could be cleared in your 3 month time-frame is tariff approval. This doesn't include PPA, PCA and FC (the other 'major' hurdles). We're 6-9 months late on all 'major' milestones so you need to recognize that although we may get the tariff agreement, the 3 following milestones will take at least another 6 months. We haven't even gone near financing yet, and I shouldn't have to tell you how hard it is to raise $1.1bn in this market (even with Chinese banks). Then of course there's the 'African' factor. Of the 4 major milestones that will take us to 20p+, there's 3 of them that rely on Moz gov.t approvals. Other than African gov.t's being crooked as hell, they also take forever to do anything. I wouldn't bank on this being any different so I'd suggest doubling whatever time-frame we've been given and set your expectations at this level. The next major milestone is tariff agreement and we'll be at 10p (within 6 months). If we get to FC before the end of H1 2022 then it's a huge win and I think we'll be 30p+ (depending on how much of the project we retain). Pretty good return in 12-18 months if you have the patience. At least that's the way I'm looking at things. Hopefully the tariff will be within Hanno's timeframes, but I cannot think of a time that has happened. Good thing is we have enough money to take us through this year and I'd imagine SF will dip into his pocket with his options if things drag into next year, so at least there's no risk of dilution. Things are undoubtedly looking very positive, but there's still lots to go, with the tariff being the key to unlocking all other major milestones and subsequent major re-rates. GLA

Ok found the time to watch the interview. Quite an odd one. The content, although +ve in the short to mid term, would obviously have a -ve impact on the sp. Makes you wonder why Hanno thought it was a good idea to do it? What the market (and I heard) is that we're at least a month away from EPC & O&M contracts being signed, and months away from tariff agreement, and that of course relies on the Moz govt. to not work in an 'African' manner i.e. taking forever to get anything done. There was a huge amount of +ve's, which makes me even more confident this project will be green lighted. But when you have fickle money floating through AIM and this company, then you need to recognise that timelines being further out from what the market expects will only put downward pressure on the sp. I'm expecting us to go back to the low 5p range until the end of the month now. Still very positive about the 6-12 month timelines though. Easy double even if FC runs into next year. GLA

Hi extrader, thanks for the below summary. I'll take a look at the interview this evening. Few q's, is the next update expected to be mid-Feb (Chinese New Year)? I was under the impression the EPC & O&M contracts are due to be agreed 'imminently', as in the next week or so...? On the tariff, is the first response form Moz simply feedback on the studies, or are they expecting tariff approval? There's an obvious difference between the two and given how long we had to wait for Moz to scratch their @ss and then come back asking for more information I'm a little concerned they'll do the same thing. I was also under the impression that Hanno said tariff approval in Feb... As many have heard me say previously, most of the other 'news' is background noise. The tariff response is the shot that will start the dash for the market.