Member Info for G_G_G

This is all potential CF, which has been here for some time. Until the tariff is signed we won't be 10p+. And until the PPA and PCA are signed we won't be 15p+. Once these are signed then yes it's time to get very excited as everything will be agreed for the Shareholder Agreement to move forward. This is when our Chinese partners take some or all of the project. Many will jump out on the steps to get to this point. But the strong hands will see 5-10x current sp providing we get to Shareholder Agreement stage. But make no mistake, it all depends on our African friends making some commitments now. Our Chinese friends have made nearly all their commitments to get to this stage (aside from EPC & O&M contracts). Pretty much everything from now is down to EDM and Moz government, which is where things could get messy. The last time the ball was in their court they asked for two new studies to be conducted. Time for them to front up now. AIMHO GLA

Sorry for your losses here fellas. I made quite a bit on the announcement but walked away because the structure of the deal, and the people they made it with seemed a bit fishy. Indonesia is also a staggeringly corrupt country. Maybe if this drops back to the 2's I'll throw some money back in as a punt. As for binding deals, it makes no difference if the company and country are crooked as hell. They'll simply wind up the business and that will be that. It's not like ARS have money for a long drawn out court action either. GLA - I think you're going to need it.

I see Gulf Keystone as upside only. It has nothing to do with the numbers provided by mgt. So long as mgt make good on their claims then we're raking in cash at the moment. The fact they've also promised a dividend will surely make the sp rise by at least 50% as we attract income investors on a circa 5% yield @ 10p.

Small trades taking down the sp at the moment. I was expecting fomo to start kicking in end of last week. I'll be surprised if we don't get it this week given next week is the last of January and we're supposed to be hearing about divi this month. AIMHO GLA

Not too bad considering most of the resource market took a hit today. We're still in the 6's after constant selling pressure, albeit with fairly low volume. Hopefully some good news on Monday. GLA

Brent still above $55 and we're not rising into news. I fully expected fomo to start kicking in given divi / fcf news is expected this month, and a f/o could drop anytime. Maybe end of next week. The way I see it every day Brent is above $50 it's another day of a higher than forecast fcf, better forward outlook, and stronger negotiating position on the f/o. I do hope they're looking to hedge some of our production. I think $55 Brent is our mid-point for the next 2-3 years and we've arrived at it a little early. Given POO and Gas prices could go either way from here, it makes sense to hedge at least the value of the forecast dividend yield at these higher prices. It would certainly put a floor under the sp at the 10p level (when we get there). Hopefully Graham and Majid thinking this way as they owe a lot to PIs. AIMHO GLA

Reckon we'll be back to the 6's before too long. I'll top up again then. Does anyone know when Ivan officially leaves his post and no longer influences decisions at Glen?

Anyone wanting to talk about the 2 x 750k sells...? It wasn't me by the way.

Correct mace. Wake me up when we start seeing 250-500k trades rolling through at a higher sp. I think the main thing for me is it appears we've found a solid range in the 6-6.5p area until news arrives. Our 250k block buyer from a couple of weeks back has provided this base. Most investors have taken their position, and no doubt many are on the sidelines watching for proof of our Canadian assets business case. If news hasn't arrived I think we'll see a little increase to the 6.5-7p range in 1-2 weeks when a bit of fomo starts to kick in. Anyone well researched in this stock would know if they deliver on their fcf / dividend promises we're an easy 10p (+5% dividend yield). If they over-deliver and the outlook continues to point toward Brent $50+ then we may get a couple more pennies. And then of course there's the f/o that's 'with lawyers'. This cannot be far off as they have have consistently communicated their plans to drill in the Spring so must be weeks away. This is definitely worth a couple of pennies when news drops. All in all the upside here is 12-15p. AIMHO DYOR GLA

I'm really looking forward to seeing some numbers for recent performance and forward guidance. With Brent at $55+ we should be raking in cash. We could break into double digits on fcf / dividend news alone. With a f/o, who knows where we'll be. GLA

Yes I certainly get the sense there's a few +1% PIs in this stock. When the herd arrive it will be fun to see them scrambling for a relatively small free float. Now for that tariff agreement...

Thanks CF. As I've said the most important next milestone is tariff approval, which is required for the successive key milestones to complete i.e. PPA, PPC, Shareholder Agreement and FC. The April 2020 rns had tariff approval end Q2 2020. If we receive it by the end of Q1 2021 then you have 9 months slippage. You'll note the company believed PPA, PPC and Shareholder Agreement would occur in the following 6 months, and FC to conclude a further 6 months later. This takes you to H1 2022 for FC, but only if the tariff approval occurs this quarter. And this FC date relies on all the other timelines being met, which are questionable on past history. But as I've said many times, people need to ignore FC as the key sp inflection points are Tariff Agreement, PPA, PCA and then Shareholder Agreement. All of these should occur this year, even allowing for 3 months slippage. These milestones unlock 20p+. Now I know a lot of people might see the best part of 12 months as a long time. But if this gets bought out at Shareholder Agreement stage (including our 4bn tonne thermal coal resource), then we're looking at a 5-10 bag from this sp. If investors wait until the next key milestone is agreed i.e. tariff approval, then they're looking at a 2-5 bag. And with each subsequent milestone, PPA, PCA and Shareholder Agreement, although the risk profile diminishes greatly, so do the potential rewards. I'm set with 3m at a little over 4p average. So it's no sweat for me to wait. AIMHO DYOR GLA

Hi Alex and CF, these dates were provided years ago. And they're not contractual deadlines. I believe it will take up to 4 years to build our power project so I'd expect end 2025 for our plant to become operational if indeed the project goes ahead. On the other dates, as I said in my note, read the April RNS to get an idea of timelines for each of the major milestones we need to achieve before FC. I also mentioned there will be multiple re-rates on this journey, which will be the major sp catalysts i.e. Tariff Agreement, PPA & PPC, and not FC. I'll be here until the Shareholder Agreement is signed, which is when I believe the 30-40p range will come into play. This should be before the end of year if they can get tariff approval this quarter (using April RNS as timings guide). AIMHO GLA

Hi Frog, my understanding is they can announce the fcf / dividend but cannot pay until the capital reduction has taken place i.e. they can announce dividend next week but not pay it until the end of the quarter providing the capital reduction has occurred before-hand. So there doesn't necessarily need to be any waiting for divi news.

On this point, I hope Graham and Majid are working double time to announce this news. Other than saying it will be announced in January, the market has us priced at about 2/3rds of real value because they've talked so much **** in the past. If they want to reward long-suffering shareholders they need to back up their claims, and prove the business case for Canada. There has been no better time to do it than now. Brent above $55 and a stronger AECO gas price should give them added incentive to pull their fingers out. POO is a joy to watch at the moment btw. AIMHO GLA

Hi Baron, I think it's worth looking at the April timetable rns to get an idea of how long these things take in an 'ideal world'. The rns lays out a timetable that has FC about 1 year after tariff approval. Now given we don't have tariff approval yet I'd say end H1 2022 is a realistic time-frame. It's why I keep saying the tariff approval is the only major de-risking event that's coming up. Most importantly it confirms Moz intention to turn the project into reality. And it unlocks the following major de-risking events, which are the PPA and PCA. These lead into the Shareholder Agreement, and then finally FC. The PPA & PCA are expected to take 6 months post tariff approval. Hopefully something of a formality, but we are talking about Africa so 6 months could easily become 9 months. The next important milestone, the Shareholder's Agreement, is where I believe we will have part or all of our project (and resource) purchased by our partner. Expect this to be another few months post PPA & PCA agreements. I'd hope the terms are somewhat agreed by then, and given this is a CMEC / nccl milestone one would hope it won't drag out. FC is something one would expect to be quite straightforward after these steps, but will take another 3-6 months as $1bn isn't pocket change. Some may want to disagree but I just don't see CMEC taking any more of the project or our 4bn tonne thermal coal resource until they have the PPA & PCA signed. Some may also think it's a long time until FC, however each of these steps are inflection points from now. I see the tariff agreement taking us to 10p+, PPA taking us to 15p+, and PCA to 20p. After this is anyone's guess as I do believe we will sell at least another 20% of our project to CMEC. My personal wish is they sell the entire project plus our coal resource. This is where you get to the 40p figures being thrown about as a 4bn tonne thermal coal resource is not only incredibly valuable, it's also a means of telling Australia to go f@ck itself. There's a railway that goes from Tete to Nacala that would come in very useful for our coal resource. Anyway plenty of big jumps to be made in the coming 3-12 months if they can keep to these timelines. If they sell the lot then I believe a 5-10 bag is guaranteed from this level. AIMHO DYOR GLA

Chris you forget the 4bn tonnes of thermal coal. That's massive value to China. There's already a railway line that runs from Tete to Nacala so you can see how they can make money on a number of fronts in a relatively short period of time, plus put two fingers up to Australia. Don't be surprised if the coal mining starts first and the power plant(s) come next.

Correct fellas. The 3 x fees I'd estimate to be worth circa £50m. So we're looking at 12p in cash after all options and warrants executed. One then needs to estimate what 40% of a scalable coal power plant is worth. And of course the value of 4bn tonnes of thermal coal if the Chinese want to take the lot. This last point should be considered against what's happening between China and Australia in the thermal coal space. I hate it when people scream crazy valuations, but this does have the hallmarks of a 5 bag if we get to FC. Having said this, it's Africa, and our partners are Chinese. So there's a lot that can go wrong between 6p and 30p. GLA

Was that the updated FS to replace the carrier pigeons?

Agree Chris that we could be worth a huge sum of cash if / when we get to FC. But first we need the tariff approved. Then we need the PPC and PPA approved. Then we can move to FC. This game is all about confidence and timing. If the whole thing moves ahead, and we sell 50-100% of our stake, then yes we are looking at a 5-10 bag. But there's a lot that needs to happen before we get to that point. And as everyone knows, this is Africa. Things fall over for no reason. And things take forever to get done. You know I'm a large holder here so this isn't de-ramping. More an honest appraisal of where things stand and why our SP is sitting in the 5-6p channel. I've said many times the tariff approval is the first major re-rate. The PPA is the second major re-rate. If these happen then yes I can see 15-20p easily. What happens after that depends on our Chinese friends and what they want to do with the project. My hope is they take the lot as it would mean a very big, guaranteed payday. And I'd imagine it would be near your 40p estimate. AIMHO GLA

Chris the only high impact news is the tariff approval. EPC & O&M is more dotting of i's and crossing of t's with our partner. We need Moz to show they're as supportive of this project as CMEC. Hanno has said they're targeting tariff approval before the end of Q1. If we're lucky we'll get some feedback from EDM in a month. So may be some good news in 1 month, and hopefully some very good news in 3 months. This is a long time for the average AIM investor, especially those who have nccl memories. So until we're close to February I don't expect any upward movement, maybe. AIMHO GLA

I'm looking forward to when we see 25-50m volume on this stock (on the back of good news). If we can do 5-10% on the back of 5m volume, imagine what happens when we see 5-10x this volume heading in one direction. Bod just need to deliver now. GLA