Member Info for G_G_G

They just need to get a raise away then the rest (post final permit approval) should take care of itself. Tony needs to get on top of this. And, he should aim to raise more than what he thinks he needs. He has always gotten this wrong. The sp will continue to drift lower until they get a raise done. And I don't mean giving away 20% of the company to some other shady outfit. He should give his long suffering PIs first dibs on filling the finance hole they're about to fall into. The market knows he needs money in the next few months. Better to raise now from 2.5p than 2p or 1.5p in a month's time. He has f@cked things up a few times waiting too long and had to print twice as many shares had he got things right. I do hope many of you have spare cash and take advantage of the raise if offered, as I do believe if Tony plays things right it should be the last raise required before he can do a proper deal. If not then at least the final permit will mean he can raise another 5% for the same amount of money in a few months, and then finalise a deal. He got played spectacularly by AE and I have no doubt they profited greatly from the recent shenanigans. They now hold 20% of the company, and no doubt made a few million more on the recent drop, and have probably starting picking up more shares down here at 2.5p. Get it together Tony and ffs make sure you have everything signed off and can see the money in the bank or you'll get hoodwinked again.

Agree with everything Chris, except we don't know that tariff approval will be in weeks. I'd be happy if we got the tariff completely signed off this quarter, or even in H2, providing it's not some half-measure tariff approval. You know the bull**** ones that say 'in principle'. Hanno and co. have been promising the tariff forever. They need it iron clad in the next few months so we can then move ahead to PPA, and PCA. Only then we can sell some or all of the project to the Chinese. If I have to weight until the end of H1 next year for us to have tariff, PPA and PCA signed then not a problem. The sp will be 20p by then and we'll simply be waiting on the Chinese offer to materialise. But we need that tariff agreement first.

Sorry to read this fellas. As I've said I made a decent chunk of cash on this when the deal came through. I walked away as I believed the asset was over-valued by the 'partner', who even at a cursory glance looked crooked as hell. An Indonesian partner setting up shell companies and promising to make the biggest payment via an IPO in Indonesia etc. That's before you look at their bull**** trading business, which reads like an Indonesian 'Wolf of Wall Street' movie script. FWIW I think this company has great prospects as the assets are amazing, Beutong especially, but the problem has been Tony going about things the wrong way. Another poster mentioned skipping the PFS as an example. Not doing big enough capital raises in the past when the sp was clearly over-valued are also mistakes. Then giving away 20% of the company for pennies to crooks has been the biggest f@ck up of all.

There's two things that need to be achieved before the sp will go up. The first and most important is Manini and co need to get away a capital raise. The Mcap is currently £37m. If they can get away £2.5m at circa 1.6p (10% dilution) then it will put a floor under the sp. Every day this doesn't happen the sp will slowly drop and the chances of getting away a raise at 1.6p will diminish. The second immediate focus is getting that final permit. This isn't 'construction ready', and talk of partnerships and IPOs etc are pointless until this is the case. If Tony can arrange these things then you'll have a sp between 1.75-2p on capital raise, which will then jump on the final permit to 3-3.5p. Then he can focus on finalizing a partnership, which to manage expectations will be for less than what PTWIN were promising.

Tony needs to clearly define next steps, re-instil confidence in the assets and the project, and get a raise done where PIs take part. PIs are actually the place he can get reliable, honest money. Hell I'd come back for £75-100k if he looks to doing a raise at the price I've mentioned. I think he could easily pull £1-1.5m from PIs who would look to average down. Then he needs to find £1m from HNWIs. But first he needs to get a forward plan out to the market, put a floor under the sp with a capital raise, and then get that final bloody permit. It's a mess but it can be solved if they have cash in the coffers. AIMHO GLA

Agreed no chance of $100 or even $65 for that matter, save for a conflict in the ME kicking off between SA, Iran and/or a couple of Gulf States. This of course could occur. Any bank calling numbers above $65 are obviously going long on oil and simply trying to drive the price up before they go short. For starters the Saudi cuts only last until end March. If they decide to bring their supply back on line then good luck getting out of the $50's. It also needs to stay in our current range ($50-60), or below, to keep the shale oil patch from turning on their pumps, and instead having to focus on survival with servicing their loans. It's not in OPECs interest to have a strong American oil market. This is the opportunity to slowly kill off a lot of shale. Oil sitting in the $50-60 channel works for everyone except shale producers. It can work if they have low b/e and relatively low debt piles. But most of the patch is up to their eye-balls in debt and will have no way of surviving if they cannot service said debt and generate reasonable fcf. On top of this we're looking at peak oil probably at the end of this decade. Banks would know this, along with wanting to pivot toward renewables, which doubly f@cks shale in the mid-term. If you can slowly take 5-10m barrels out of the market over time then you can counter the slow decline in oil that will occur over the next 25 years. OPEC simply need oil to sit in this channel and let corporate nature take care of shale.

Btw, the poo being manipulated to stay in this channel is awesome for us. If we can get away a f/o, retain 30%, and prove up 100m barrels of low-cost sweet Brent, then we're good for the next decade as well. At $55 poo, plus a second proved up field, this will re-rate to 20p quite easily. You'll get another 5-10k boepd from Serenity, and the ability to add to this in the wider Nth Sea area, or in Canada. In 3 years time this could be a low cost, diversified gas/oil with fields in Canada / Nth Sea, with 75-100m 2P, and pumping out 25k boepd. What is that company worth with Brent sitting on $55...? For the patient this has minimum 5x written all over it. AIMHO GLA

Duster, when you say 'there's not much stock left at these levels at the moment', are you referring to L2?

Piohc1, yes I'm with you on Graham and Majid needing to deliver. I get the feeling these guys are pretty smart (and generally competent), but have made a few f@ck ups along the way. They'd be acutely aware they need to deliver to have any respect in the market, and to avoid PIs taking gallows to the next AGM (if we can indeed attend).

Oiler, yes I too am expecting news this week given what Majid has said in recent interviews. If you've perennially over-promised and under-delivered, and the market has little trust in you, then it's pretty stupid to be making statements that you cannot deliver, regardless of whether they come with disclaimers attached. Majid didn't need to offer January, so the market can quite rightly expect the fcf / dividend news this week. On the back of this we should be sitting at 8-10p. This stock is so unloved it could sit at 8p, or equally with the distrust having been lifted it could re-rate to fair value at 10-12p. The f/o news would add at least another 2-3p. I'm in two minds as to top-slicing or waiting for the f/o news. With poo sitting comfortably above $50 it makes a huge difference to our bottom with every day that goes by. Mayve f/o news comign first is a good thing after all. Anyway, hopefully not long now. AIMHO GLA

I've been saying for some time the value of the coal and relative closeness to infrastructure to get it to port makes the whole of Ncondezi attractive. Imagine a Chinese company takes Vale's assets and control of the rail / port projects. You have an immense amount of coal in the area between Vale and Ncondezi. And if there's metallurgical coal in the mix it becomes even more attractive. Maybe I'm joining too many dots but if a Chinese consortium go for our neighbour and infrastructure then full buy-out is def. on the cards. Fwiw I think the project and resource will be taken by Chinese interests. They don't give a **** about western banks shunning the industry. Their coal fired power plants will still be consuming an immense amount of the resource for decades to come. And if they can get it from their own African sources it's not only attractive financially, it also means guaranteed supply, plus the ability to teach Australia a lesson. In summary, there could be read across. GLA

Hi redknight, I think the issue is the sp will crater if the deal is called off. This will mean ARS need to do a capital raise to keep the lights on. This will be most likely around the1.5-2p mark. I made quite a bit of money on this stock when the deal dropped. The reasons I sold to be honest was the description of who we did the deal with (shell and holding companies), and the projected value of the IPO. To me the value they were placing on this was far too great. Look at he NPV of the project. Companies with no money, and requiring two key permits, operating in a 'swamp' like Indonesia, don't sell their project for more than npv. It just didn't make sense to me. And a small background check into AE made it smell way too fishy to hold. The fact they haven't released the names of the people behind AE makes it even fishier. I guarantee there will be either dodgy 'connected' Indonesians (maybe a government official or two), or the same from China. The good thing about this company is it has great resources. But the stink about this deal is huge. If they secure the last permit, so shovel ready, and the deal falls over, then I'll be back post next capital raise. As I said the BKM resource held by ARS is fantastic for the mining super-cycle we're about to enter. But keep in mind they still need a permit, operate in Indonesia, and have a dodgy as f@ck partner who own at least 20% of the company. As for Beutong, you need to keep in mind this has a lot of red tape to get through before drills start spinning again. The best they can hope for is permits to keep drilling, then sell a majority stake to a major so they'll have some form of protection. The fact that a lot of majors avoid Indonesia should say something. I sincerely hope this doesn't fall over for all holders, but do believe Manini got into bed with the wrong people due to needing money and feeling immense pressure to get something done. The raise that gave away 20% of the company was stupefying. GLA

Kingivor, is there a link to an official statement or are you joining dots?

Thanks Ivor, are you able to provide a link? Also, does it state share consolidation, confirmation of dividend, and production update / outlook as per your post?

Sorry duster but they simply can't be all buys. Generally, it would be good if posters don't look at 'blue' or 'red' and then start saying 'all blue today and yet the sp goes down - MMs at it again'. It's not the way things work. Buys and sells are matched. Simple. So if the sp goes up there has been more buying pressure, which means people are having to buy at higher rates from people who are only willing to sell at those higher rates. It's not rocket science.

One more thing, Kingivor you made a claim about news being delivered on Feb 01st. Is this your opinion or have you read it somewhere. Please provide the source if this has been reported. GLA

Tony, I don't think my tone has flipped in the past 2-3 months if you look at my posting history. It has definitely flipped from when I was last in this stock and took a circa £75k bath - When we drilled at edges and there was rampant insider trading. Since the purchase of the Canadian assets I started watching again, then I timed it pretty well post the monster placing. I got into a few debates on whether the sp would drop to placing price or below, rather than the 10-12p immediate jump some were predicting. Not always right but I was on that one, which is why I'm now back here with a lot more money this time. At around 6.75p I've truly broken even i.e. I get back my £75k, so hopefully this time Graham and Majid are going to deliver. GLA

Oh and when you have stocks with news due any day you normally get a concerted effort by traders on twitter. Very easy to move this stock by 5% given most PIs with significant holdings have taken their position. About 1m buying pressure on the sort of low volume days we've had recently and you'll have your 5% jump. If you get a few days of this then it starts popping up on radars and more buy-in, which is when traders take their 10% and a few £k in the bank. I've done this myself quite a few times. It's easy money but very frustrating as you're constantly trying to buy enough volume to make it worthwhile, but also having to keep an eye on the sp all the time so you can time things right and offload the volume. Not worth it for me. I'd rather buy-in to undervalued stocks and sit a few months if needs be. As for 2p dividends, anyone saying this should be noted as the sort of twitter pumpers that I've mentioned in this post. If we get .5p then we have a 5% yield at 10p. That's what I'm hoping to see. A f/o with near drill timings and we'll be up to 12-14p. Lots of room for traders with a bit of patience over the next 4 weeks. The more I type this the more tempted I am to buy even more.

FOMO - Fear of missing out. It's the rise you normally see happen before news that could re-rate a company is due to be released e.g. drill results, financials, f/o etc. You'll normally see 10-20% on these things as traders take a position. Never massive volume, but often enough to make an easy £5k if you time things right. This is what's happening now. Some will take their 10% for a few £k but I won't at all be surprised if we're sitting near 6.5p come the end of the week. You often see a small drop in the Monday / Tuesday sessions before it starts to increase again into the weekend. Given we have news due any day I'm not sure we'll see the weekly ebbs and flows but I fully expect this to climb another 5% by the end of the week. AIMHO GLA

And here comes the fomo...

We now have around 20x the amount of shares so better to look at our highest Mcap, which will give you a better comparison of where things stand on our current valuation. Plus take into account that we now produce 10kboepd in a safe jurisdiction, have significant 2P on-shore resources, and huge exploration upside both on-shore and off-shore in another safe jurisdiction (priced in Brent). We should be double our current sp. The market is simply waiting for our mgt to prove they're not charlatans.

Good to see the weakness today was short lived. I picked up 90k this morning at 5.92 (from memory). Fomo must surely be starting to get into traders heads right now :) GLA

Because RoC will be blocking a sale to anyone else. RoC's development will come from China. An Australian major will only develop the infrastructure required to get the IO out of the ground and shipped to China. The Chinese will develop far more as they add other resources to be shipped out of a much bigger, multi-purpose port, which they no doubt will own. There's also the fact RoC owes more money to China than anyone else. If China wants to get their money back, then Zanaga should do it (and more). My hope is they have their pencils out and trying to understand the least amount they can pay in order to get a deal over the line. Hard to believe China aren't thinking this way. The amount of resources RoC and neighbors have is simply staggering. And they're particularly rich in the resource China want and need the most - IO. An owned port in the mid-Atlantic Ocean would also give them geographic influence / coverage in an area where the Americans have very little. So there's your reasons why RoC and China have us wrapped up.

I think there'll still be a degree of upside with tariff approval and PPA / PCA. They've all but said they will be selling some or all of the project. So even at 10p (my projection for tariff approval), there's still a 2-4 bag depending on how much is sold to CMEC. One needs to keep in mind it's the PPA & PCA that matter most. This means all financial are locked in so CMEC can make a bid for more of the project with certainty. Hopefully these will happen before the end of the year. Then I think we'll be 15-20p. All to play for, but make no mistake the ball is in EDM and Moz court now. AIMHO GLA

Agreed Austin. Almost every investor here has been burnt by Graham and Majid's big claims without delivering. Time for them to step out of the snake oil salesman characterization and show the market they can be trusted. And the sooner the better. There's no guarantees that Brent will stay above $55 so they need to start ticking off the things they've promised and start building shareholder value. With an mcap of £100m plus exploration upside you'll have a market and shareholder base far more willing to stump up extra cash for great opportunities. Problem is we've heard about the Canadian assets being a great purchase, but we haven't as yet seen the proof. Hopefully something in the next week or so. GLA

Warrants would have to be declared. We've had some low volume days that have pulled the sp down as small time traders look to bank some profit and chase something else. I didn't think we'd break back through 6p given we were 6.5p 1 week ago, and we're due 2 x pieces of news that will create a re-rate on their own accord. Looks like no-one is adding to their position with the weakness over the past 48 hours, so now it's a waiting game. Expecting us to be above 6p at the end of the week when fomo starts to kick in. Lovely top-up opportunity. AIMHO GLA

Soon Bolivian. Soon.