Member Info for G_G_G

Well that video hasn't done much. I do appreciate Hanno taking the time to give us a main project update of sorts. Back to the waiting game then. GLA

BTW I meant AT 'pulling the right strings'.

Hilarious atg.

Agree JAdam, HUR are f@cked and there's simply no way out for PIs. There's huge future dilution to come over there. Maybe we should start hitting boards such as HUR, TLW, PREM etc So much money in those stocks with such a risky future.

As for 10p, I agree this is fair value with expected divi payout confirmed. If the initial divi payment is generous, which I'm hoping the bod will do to build a new base at 10p, then we could breach this level. Throw in some Noel drills and we're comfortably above 10p. And with a f/o on decent terms then yes I agree 15p would be the realistic target. I'd expect us to breach this 15p in future in the run up to drill results, providing of course poo and gas are in a similar place to now. If they strike anywhere near 100m recoverable and we still own 25-30% of the assets then we'll jump through 20p. Nailed on 50-100% rise in the coming weeks and months providing commodity prices stay relatively stable. I'm going to hang around for the f/o news to drop. If drilling is scheduled soon after I'll probably wait until we get results, plus a divi payment for my time :) All incredibly exciting here.

Yep agree Tony there's a few 'unknowns' that we need ironed out. But on the surface the bod numbers are close to Mirabaud, but perhaps a little light.

As usual I couldn't agree more extrader. They owe us a clear explanation as on the surface the recent move stinks. This company is really starting to grate on my nerves. Let's hope they have some good (clear) news on the main project soon.

Really? For net operating income? Haven't seen that. At least it starts to align a little more, but we still need the 'mid-February strip pricing' values the bod is using to truly compare.

I just dropped a note on HURs billboard. Never do this normally but the number of investors over there that have lost their shirt and are about to lose their trousers on the most recent rns is scary. I shared some of the future good news to be had here. No doubt a wave of abuse coming my way. But at least some of them will get a chance to make some money here in the coming months, rather than be diluted to oblivion over there. Disaster stock that one. I'd rather play Russian roulette with my balls than invest in that stock on recent news. So many gamblers who get emotionally attached to a stock.

Head over to i3e. Less than current HUR mcap at £53m. Production +9,000boepd with significant low-cost growth upside. Forecast to throw off £20m fcf this year at current O&G prices. Divi payment imminent. F/o 'with lawyers' for Nth Sea field. Paltry debt level under £15m. Sorry but this company is as good as dead for PIs. The writing was written on the wall with 'convertible note holders have been engaged'. You're going to get diluted to oblivion here and the noteholders will own the lot. In contrast i3e is the most undervalued O&G stock on the lse. The reasons I've outlined in my posts over there, mainly trust in mgt due to missed guidance previously. This is now a thing of the past. Fair value 12p all day. Come over to i3e to abuse me. But at least take a look at the recent rns's and interviews. Sorry for the rns today. It's a bigger stinker than -15%, which will be seen in the coming weeks and months.

Hopefully once it goes we'll be quickly banging on that resistance that JAdam pointed out. Divi confirmation will of course see to that and more. F/o will probably result in people p!ssing their pants with excitement (and the arrival of the herd).

Bloody hell this site does my head in sometimes. Tony, I posted a very lengthy response to you last night. Summary as follows:

SP increase will be driven on the expectation of news i.e. the expectation that a divi will be confirmed and paid soon, exploration and production increases in Canada, f/o completion. Based on expected delivery of above newsflow and current financials this is why we'll move up to 'fairer value' and sit in the 9-10p range over the next week or so. Also, I (and you) have said many times on current oil and gas prices we are very under-value, so every day we sit at these prices the market builds more confidence in fcf and divi payment.

RNS v Mirabaud (November update). Fact is we simply don't have enough information to truly compare the operational update numbers with what Mirabaud have supplied, which I imagine you already know. I have no idea what the bod are using for 'mid-February strip pricing' in order to forecast USD$27.6m net operating income. I also don't have access to our average margins across our oil, gas and ngl assets.

What I can say at a top-line level is the USD$27.5m projection looks a little light. If we use mid-February strip pricing range for Brent, which appears to be our benchmark, it ranges form $61-66 (09.02 - 24.02), and for AECO we have $2.80-3.20 (09.02-24.02). Other than the massive difference in prices for the 2 weeks through mid-February, I'd have expected our oil revenue to be higher given Mirabaud were working from $45 Brent (-10%) and i3e's projected actual net operating income would be working off circa $63 (-10%). If one was to use the same margins as applied by Mirabaud then we should be making at least another USD$10m revenue from the 2021 Mirabaud baseline. If i3e are using $3.00 for AECO, and the margins are roughly similar, these numbers should at least align. But again, this relies on a lot of assumptions on information we simply don't know.

Bottom line is USD$27.5m looks light. How light depends on the margin we get for our oil production, but if we take a general Mirabaud rule of thumb of net operating income being 40% of revenue, then we should be around USD$4m higher from oil alone. Given NGL appears to be worked from Brent in Mirabaud's analysis there's probably another USD$2m. Mirabaud estimated USD$26.8 net operating income so the difference is USD$0.8m versus bod forecast, rather than circa USD6m, so I'm thinking circa USD$5m light. But again, impossible to say until we know strip pricing being used and average margins. Hope this helps to outline why I said 'we look a little light'. But, one needs to keep in mind that if we increase production by even near 5,000boepd from our Canadian assets, we will be throwing off more cash especially if poo and gas stays around the $60 Brent and $3 AECO range. We already have an extra 500boepd, and I'd hope we can at least add 3,000 boepd by end of year. HTH GLA

Not yet Forrest, but soon. I'm sticking with my 9-10p prediction for the end of the week. That's of course barring any news. If the bod confirm the divi and it's higher than expected for the first payment then we could breach 10p on this alone. There's also f/o, increased exploration / production news that could land at any point in time as well. The divi and increased exploration are certainties over the next 1-2 months. The wild card is f/o. This could easily add 2-4p depending on terms and how quickly the drill bit will be turning. For example if we hold onto a reasonable % with plans are to drill multiple targets in the summer, then I'd expect the higher end of 2-4p will be in play. All very exciting and still a massive bargain at 8p. Fair value post divi confirmation 10-12p. GLA

Extrader that is a bloody good email. Thanks for pulling together as it covers pretty much everything I've thought and questioned up until today. I'll follow-up with the same email if you don't get a response and would encourage all other PIs to do the same.

The company first of all needs to adequately and clearly explain the situation on the solar project and this rns. Secondly, they need to provide updates on the many pieces of news due (and over-due) on the main project i.e. the project we all invested in years ago. Mgt promised better shareholder communication when SF came on-board, which simply hasn't happened. We've had no communication on the main project for two months, and then this garbled outline of what's happening with the solar project. Hopefully we're not seeing a return to amateur hour again. And I'm certainly hoping they're not about to pay themselves a 30% coupon on a $500k (6 month) loan to a company that we (nccl shareholders) effectively own, which can also be converted to equity in said currently unvalued company should the loan go unpaid. One needs to keep in mind the loan (plus outrageous coupon) would ultimately need to be re-paid from new co. project revenue, which is a paltry $200k per year. Given taxes and other under-lying costs this would probably take 5 years to repay. And let's not go back into the solar project and the links to Hanno's brother as this made by blood boil when it happened and was the reason I completely exited the company at that point in time. I hope I've misinterpreted this poorly worded rns as I think my worst fears on how this is structured would be so under-handed that it would almost defy belief. Let's hope it's not the case.

Yeah it's a bit mind-bending extrader. I took it to mean they get 30% coupon on the $500k at the earlier of 6 months or commissioning of project. The thing that I'm trying to get my head around is how this will all work when we know nothing of the structure of NGP. This is further confused by the below comment:

· Lenders right to convert the Bridge Loan into equity of NGP with a coupon of 50% should NGP default on repayments or under events of default typical for a project of this nature

If I'm reading into this correctly they pay $500k, and get back $650k within 6 months. If NGP defaults they can get $750k of equity in NGP. But what is NGP and how is it currently structured? What is NGP worth, how much cash does it have to hand, and how much do nccl shareholders currently own? Is NGP re-paying the $500k or is nccl re-paying the $500k? And if it's nccl re-paying then it's hardly 'non-dilutive', as we're paying a crazy coupon of $150k for the directors to put up $500k for 6 months maximum loan... I know it's a Monday morning but I simply don't understand how this 'non-dilutive' loan is working...

b/e = break even

I think the market has had enough of Hanno's timelines and probably waiting for the all important news on tariff. I do think we'll be back around the 6p mark with confirmation of EPC & O&M contracts and a general partner update, especially if they make some positive noises on the tariff front. We're months over-due on the EPC & O&M contracts. It's so late I cannot even be bothered looking back to see the dates Hanno has provided in the past. A tariff update is also comfortably over-due. So I'm not sure if the market has much confidence in Hanno at the moment. If this continues to drag past mid-March I can see us dropping under 4.5p again. As I've said before, he should at least provide a twitter update, or do an interview to say 'news a little late but everything is still on-track', and provide some new timings. It's really not that hard to do. Hopefully something will happen next week. Does anyone know if nccl was on the IG list?

Tony, I was intending to take a closer look this weekend. At first glance I thought our b/e must be a little higher than what Mirabaud was working from, but not by very much. What were your thoughts?

If so, and there's some weakness in poo and it was to drop back to $50 it could make a reasonable difference to divi payments if our b/e is $1-2 higher than Mirabaud were reporting etc. Having said this, for people intending to be holding in 1 year, I'm expecting production to be closer to 15,000, so divi pay-outs from a much larger base, and on poo anything above $55 is likely to pay out quite spectacularly from this level when one takes into account 30% fcf and little to no taxes on any revenue for years to come. I think they can grow production on our acreage without so much as raising a sweat and given they can bring on wells so quickly I'd be encouraging the bod to be doing this rather than looking for more acquisitions at the moment. There will undoubtedly be weakness in the poo in the next year or so, which is when they could have another crack at distressed assets. Given they will have grown production by 50%, and will have a f/o done and hopefully proven 25m+ recoverable barrels to i3e, they could be raising money from an mcap of +£150m so a lot easier for sp accretive acquisitions. It's just matter of whether the bod wish to have a breather, consolidate, then go again. It's the best growth strategy from my pov, but perhaps there's another Gain out there (doubt it though). Woudl welcome your thoughts on Mirabaud v recent RNS. HTH GLA

I think the WH Ireland valuation will benefit from confirmation of divi news, as it will put a much sturdier floor under their forecast. So I'm hoping they will both be released at roughly the same time and the bod will get their blowhorn out for the mob to hear. There's a hell of a lot of good news coming before the quarterly update in 6 weeks. They need interviews post divi announcement, and then following up post quarterly report. Good thing is the divi needs to start moving in the next week or two if we're to get everything rubber stamped by end of next March (4 weeks). And in the quarterly report there will hopefully be all the additional points we need for the sp to be comfortably into double digits for the foreseeable future. I'm talking +9000boepd production, news of Noel 500boepd coming on stream, guidance on new wells being planned, plus reinforcement of divi pay-out for 2021. Throw in a f/o and I think we'll be bouncing comfortably between 13-15p. If the first divi payout is higher than expected, and f/o agreement is good, this could breach 15p. For reference 15p puts an Mcap value of just over £100m, which would value us near our peers, who don't have the same low debt levels, or immediate low cost production and significant reserve upgrade potential. This is looking very, very good now. Today's weakness is the IG crowd closing out imo. Let's see where things stand at the end of next week. GLA

Also 2.2p is an incredibly good price given the company had no cash and therefore at the mercy of financiers. Great way to stick two fingers up to AE as well. Those shady pr!cks have just seen their 20% ownership drop to 14% overnight :) Very good for ARS once this has all washed through. If I was invested here with a high average then this is the time to average down. AIMHO GLA

Jesus, that's a lot more than I thought they'd raise (and could raise). That's quite a lot of dilution. Pretty **** that PIs aren't getting a chance to participate but I'm expecting there to be plenty of time to get in to this stock over the next few months in the low 2's. Strong appetite and II involvement are v.positive signs. Once the news flow starts up again then we'll see the sp climb from down here. Maybe a month or two from now. I'll see you guys as an investor again soon. GLA

Incredible that TM hasn't learnt his lesson on not having enough money in the bank. Actually annoying to watch this company over the years. Although I cannot complain as I'm one of the few who has made money from ARS. Each time the sp has been decimated it has been down to Tony not raising enough money at critical times and then having to raise at inopportune times when the sp is much lower. Ironically, being low on cash is what led him to get into bed with shady characters like AE for next to nothing. And right now the market knows ARS need cash, and yet he doesn't bite the bullet and make a call from the market for 12 months of cash burn i.e. $2m. I'm confident that he could pick up this amount of money for circa 2p as anyone fronting up will know their money will be used to secure a partnership that unlocks the potential of BKM. With copper being so strong I don't know why he doesn't just get on with it. I tell myself a deal could be close. But again this has happened before, dragged out, and then fallen over with ARS having even less cash in the bank. I also remember questioning the CFO appointment given his b/g, but viewed it as someone brought in as a representative of a local entity as part of the deal going through. The fact AE proposed him as CEO only reinforces that he was part of the deal, it's just a shame that he was an insider for a bunch of local con artists. If I was Tony I'd get rid of that guy, do a capital raise, and then start speaking with legit partners. A f@cking moron could scratch the surface of AE and know they stink. I sold 3m shares here for circa £50k profit on the spike because I scratched the surface of AE. Plus the deal quite frankly was too good to be true, largely relying on listing locally at a crazy valuation. Bizarre, stupid and naive decisions Tony has made over the years. Anyway, the reason I got in here in the first place was the assets are very good for a circa £30m Mcap and a deal was meant to be closing. Assets are still great. Turns out the deal was too good to be true. And everyone is back to square one with no cash in the bank (again). If a raise takes place I'll return, but not before-hand. Also need to keep in mind this isn't shovel ready yet. There's one or two permits remaining. Tony needs to pull his head out of his @ss and start making some good decisions, starting with a small raise. AIMHO GLA